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Scottish politics in 2020

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MSPs are heading back to work at Holyrood while newly-elected MPs gear up to pass a Brexit deal at Westminster. After a tumultuous 2019, what does 2020 hold in store for Scottish politics?

Getting Brexit done

The first and most obvious result of the general election is that Boris Johnson’s promise to “get Brexit done” will become a reality on 31 January.

With a comfortable Conservative majority, Westminster deadlock over a withdrawal deal is a thing of the past – but that doesn’t mean Brexit is going away as an issue.

There’s still the small matter of agreeing a future relationship with the EU and laying the foundations for a trade deal – all inside an 11-month transition period.

Expect the familiar talk of no-deal cliff edges to continue through much of the year – in debate at Holyrood as well as Westminster, with much of the Brexit legislation set to cut across devolved areas.

The Scottish government are digging in over Holyrood’s consent for such bills, and will use every one of them to drive home a reminder of the 62% majority for Remain north of the border.

Holyrood’s budget

Normally at this time of year, Scottish Finance Secretary Derek Mackay would be locked in negotiations with opposition parties seeking support for his budget plans.

This year, there’s something missing – the budget. Mr Mackay had planned to announce it on 12 December, but instead found himself in a polling booth.

The UK government is yet to set out its plans – they are expected sometime in February or March – and this means Mr Mackay doesn’t know how much money he has to spend. The knock-on effect is that councils and health boards don’t know how much money they have to spend either.

By the time anyone finds out how much money they have, or need to raise, there will be very little time for debate, scrutiny or deal-making.

Holyrood’s budget process is meant to last months. The way things stand, it may have to be compressed into a matter of days.

The Salmond inquiries

In March, former first minister Alex Salmond will go on trial at the High Court in Edinburgh. He denies charges of sexual misconduct by ten women.

The trial itself is entirely a matter for the justice system, not politics. But immediately after it ends, a series of inquiries will begin into how complaints against Mr Salmond were handled by the Scottish government.

The court is the only place where the substance of any complaints will be settled, but regardless of the outcome it will be far from the last word said about the matter.

The coming inquiries range from a government review of its botched internal investigation process – successfully challenged in court by Mr Salmond – a probe to establish whether Ms Sturgeon breached the ministerial code in her dealings with her predecessor, and a Holyrood inquiry into both.

The latter could potentially drag on for months, calling the first minister and her team of special advisors as witnesses in public committee hearings.

Elections

If you thought the big questions of leadership were settled on 12 December, think again. Many political party members are going to find themselves voting again in short order – for new leaders.

The Scottish Conservative leadership contest – left in deep freeze during the election campaign – has now begun in earnest.

Alongside the UK Labour leadership race, Scottish Labour have to find themselves a new deputy leader after Lesley Laird lost the position along with her seat on December 12.

The Lib Dems meanwhile also need a new figurehead after the SNP dethroned Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire.

In Scotland, there’s another national election coming around the corner too, in the shape of the 2021 Holyrood contest. Expect the various leadership pitches to play a big part in setting the scene for that race.

Gender Recognition reforms

Governments don’t often save up big reforms for the tail end of the parliamentary term, but Ms Sturgeon and her ministers still have one contentious domestic topic to wrestle with.

The government wants to reform the Gender Recognition Act to make it easier for people to change their legally recognised gender, saying the current system can be “traumatic and demeaning”.

However, the plan has come in for criticism from some SNP backbenchers, and the idea of allowing people to “self-identify” their gender has been the topic of fierce debate.

Ministers have put their plans out for a fresh consultation, saying there needs to be “maximum consensus” due to “valid concerns” – but remain committed to making changes.

The consultation is due back in March, and the government would have to move relatively swiftly after that to get legislation through parliament before the next election.

Indyref2

The Conservative majority at Westminster has largely settled the issue of Brexit. But with the SNP winning a landslide north of the border, the other constitutional battleground – independence – is very much alive.

Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a new referendum within the year, and has formally requested powers from Westminster to do so.

But will it happen in 2020?

There are two elements to this question. The first is the logistics of actually holding a ballot, with PM Boris Johnson so far refusing to agree the deal Ms Sturgeon wants.

Fingers in ears at Downing Street won’t help the SNP get a referendum in 2020, but it might help with the second element – winning a referendum.

Here, uncertainty remains Ms Sturgeon’s biggest problem.

Even with the fog of Brexit befuddlement clearing, there are still question marks over how it will impact on the public mood. Ms Sturgeon will be hoping it could provide the boost needed to get the Yes camp over the line, but is she willing to gamble on it now, with the polls finely poised?

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Moe visiting Yorkton as Saskatchewan election campaign continues

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Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to be on the road today as the provincial election campaign continues.

Moe is set to speak in the city of Yorkton about affordability measures this morning before travelling to the nearby village of Theodore for an event with the local Saskatchewan Party candidate.

NDP Leader Carla Beck doesn’t have any events scheduled, though several party candidates are to hold press conferences.

On Thursday, Moe promised a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected.

The NDP said the Saskatchewan Party was punching down on vulnerable children.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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Promise tracker: What the Saskatchewan Party and NDP pledge to do if they win Oct. 28

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:

Saskatchewan Party

— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.

— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.

— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.

— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.

— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.

— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.

— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults

— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.

— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.

— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.

— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.

NDP

— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.

— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.

— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.

— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.

— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.

— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.

— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.

— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.

— Scrap the marshals service.

— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.

— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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