MSPs are heading back to work at Holyrood while newly-elected MPs gear up to pass a Brexit deal at Westminster. After a tumultuous 2019, what does 2020 hold in store for Scottish politics?
Getting Brexit done
The first and most obvious result of the general election is that Boris Johnson’s promise to “get Brexit done” will become a reality on 31 January.
With a comfortable Conservative majority, Westminster deadlock over a withdrawal deal is a thing of the past – but that doesn’t mean Brexit is going away as an issue.
There’s still the small matter of agreeing a future relationship with the EU and laying the foundations for a trade deal – all inside an 11-month transition period.
Expect the familiar talk of no-deal cliff edges to continue through much of the year – in debate at Holyrood as well as Westminster, with much of the Brexit legislation set to cut across devolved areas.
The Scottish government are digging in over Holyrood’s consent for such bills, and will use every one of them to drive home a reminder of the 62% majority for Remain north of the border.
Holyrood’s budget
Normally at this time of year, Scottish Finance Secretary Derek Mackay would be locked in negotiations with opposition parties seeking support for his budget plans.
This year, there’s something missing – the budget. Mr Mackay had planned to announce it on 12 December, but instead found himself in a polling booth.
The UK government is yet to set out its plans – they are expected sometime in February or March – and this means Mr Mackay doesn’t know how much money he has to spend. The knock-on effect is that councils and health boards don’t know how much money they have to spend either.
By the time anyone finds out how much money they have, or need to raise, there will be very little time for debate, scrutiny or deal-making.
Holyrood’s budget process is meant to last months. The way things stand, it may have to be compressed into a matter of days.
The trial itself is entirely a matter for the justice system, not politics. But immediately after it ends, a series of inquiries will begin into how complaints against Mr Salmond were handled by the Scottish government.
The court is the only place where the substance of any complaints will be settled, but regardless of the outcome it will be far from the last word said about the matter.
The coming inquiries range from a government review of its botched internal investigation process – successfully challenged in court by Mr Salmond – a probe to establish whether Ms Sturgeon breached the ministerial code in her dealings with her predecessor, and a Holyrood inquiry into both.
The latter could potentially drag on for months, calling the first minister and her team of special advisors as witnesses in public committee hearings.
Elections
If you thought the big questions of leadership were settled on 12 December, think again. Many political party members are going to find themselves voting again in short order – for new leaders.
The Scottish Conservative leadership contest – left in deep freeze during the election campaign – has now begun in earnest.
Alongside the UK Labour leadership race, Scottish Labour have to find themselves a new deputy leader after Lesley Laird lost the position along with her seat on December 12.
In Scotland, there’s another national election coming around the corner too, in the shape of the 2021 Holyrood contest. Expect the various leadership pitches to play a big part in setting the scene for that race.
Gender Recognition reforms
Governments don’t often save up big reforms for the tail end of the parliamentary term, but Ms Sturgeon and her ministers still have one contentious domestic topic to wrestle with.
The government wants to reform the Gender Recognition Act to make it easier for people to change their legally recognised gender, saying the current system can be “traumatic and demeaning”.
However, the plan has come in for criticism from some SNP backbenchers, and the idea of allowing people to “self-identify” their gender has been the topic of fierce debate.
Ministers have put their plans out for a fresh consultation, saying there needs to be “maximum consensus” due to “valid concerns” – but remain committed to making changes.
The consultation is due back in March, and the government would have to move relatively swiftly after that to get legislation through parliament before the next election.
Indyref2
The Conservative majority at Westminster has largely settled the issue of Brexit. But with the SNP winning a landslide north of the border, the other constitutional battleground – independence – is very much alive.
There are two elements to this question. The first is the logistics of actually holding a ballot, with PM Boris Johnson so far refusing to agree the deal Ms Sturgeon wants.
Fingers in ears at Downing Street won’t help the SNP get a referendum in 2020, but it might help with the second element – winning a referendum.
Here, uncertainty remains Ms Sturgeon’s biggest problem.
Even with the fog of Brexit befuddlement clearing, there are still question marks over how it will impact on the public mood. Ms Sturgeon will be hoping it could provide the boost needed to get the Yes camp over the line, but is she willing to gamble on it now, with the polls finely poised?
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
