OTTAWA —
Seven months into the pandemic, medical experts have a better idea of how to treat COVID-19 and how to keep it out of high-risk settings which means there are far fewer people dying of the virus now than there were in the spring.
But doctors and politicians are frantically warning that if the case numbers in Canada keep soaring as they have been in recent weeks, that may not be the case for much longer.
Dr. Matthew Oughton, an infectious disease specialist at Jewish General Hospital in Montreal, says the second wave of the pandemic in Canada is largely being spread among younger, healthier populations than it was in the spring, when long-term care homes were hit hardest.
In Ontario, at the end of April, 45 per cent of all cases were being diagnosed in people over the age of 60, while people under 40 accounted for less than 25 per cent.
On Sept. 29, people 60 and older made up 11 per cent of new cases, while those under 40 accounted for 62 per cent.
When you couple that with the expanded knowledge about how to treat this virus, it means more people are able to ride out the disease out of hospital, and fewer people are dying.
National data show April, May and June recorded 60 per cent of the total cases in Canada thus far, but 91 per cent of the deaths. The next three months accounted for 34 per cent of total cases, and just eight per cent of all deaths.
But Oughton says that low-risk is not no risk and that, as numbers soar even in younger populations, the number of people who will get very sick and die will also start to go up.
He also says the other risk is that the more the virus spreads in the community, the harder it will be to keep it out of seniors’ residences, and long-term care homes where the impact can be devastating.
“What’s going to happen almost inevitably, as you have more and more spread in the community, it’s going to find more vulnerable groups to spread to,” he said.
Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Friday the knowledge learned in the first wave about treatments and public health protections is helping in the second wave, as has the more reliable supply of personal protective equipment.
But none of that is going to help if hospitals fill up to capacity because the system can only be stretched so far.
“At the end of the day, we still can’t see these rises in cases increase exponentially,” said Hajdu.
The average daily cases nationally went from the low 400s at the end of August, to more than 1,700 on Friday, with Ontario and Quebec accounting for more than 80 per cent of them.
While hospitalizations are still far below what they were seven months ago, they are growing. In Ontario and Quebec. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals has tripled, and the number in intensive care more than doubled.
In British Columbia hospitalizations quadrupled in September.
Officials with Ottawa Public Health, which recorded its single highest daily total of 142 cases of COVID-19 on Friday, are pleading with people to only have close contact with people they live with.
“Our health care system is in crisis,” the agency tweeted, noting labs are beyond capacity, contact tracing is behind, hospitals are nearing capacity and more long-term care homes have outbreaks.
“Our system can’t handle much more of this,” it said.
Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said the expanded knowledge of the virus and what public health measures are working, will allow governments to be more specific when they impose measures to try and slow the spread. Quebec, for example, is targeting new restrictions on public activities to hotly affected cities like Montreal and Quebec, and leaving much of the province as before.
Ontario put new restrictions Friday on restaurants, banquet halls and gyms only in Toronto, Ottawa and Peel region, where the majority of that province’s cases are being tallied.
Hajdu said there is no easy guideline for governments to follow when new restrictions have to be imposed but, if Canadians want to avoid full lockdowns, it’s critical that they make good decisions about socialization.
“This is a fine-tuned balance between making sure we can have some semblance of a normal economy and a normal life and also protect our health care system and the health of Canadians,” she said. “We are continuously working at that”
Oughton says there is another nasty outcome coming if we can’t get this second wave under control. People who aren’t dying of COVID-19 are still going to be getting cancer and having heart attacks and getting into accidents. If the health care system is overloaded with COVID-19 patients, it will lead to a higher mortality rate in other serious illnesses as well.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 3, 2020.
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
