A “secret” Royal Canadian Mounted Police report paints a dark picture of Canada’s future.
Obtained through an access to information request, the heavily redacted document outlines troubling trends to prepare for in Canada, including climate change, misinformation, government distrust and a global recession.
“The global community has experienced a series of crises, with COVID-19, supply-chain issues, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine all sending shockwaves throughout the world,” the report’s introduction states. “The situation will probably deteriorate further in the next five years, as the early effects of climate change and a global recession add their weight to the ongoing crises.”
Published in 2023, the declassified report quotes French President Emmanuel Macron on “the end of abundance” and notes that future economic forecasts are “bleak.”
“The coming period of recession will also accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations,” the nine-page report predicts in a section titled “Popular Resentment.”
It goes on to state that “many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live.”
“The fallout from this decline in living standards will be exacerbated by the fact that the difference between the extremes of wealth is greater now in developed countries than it has been at any time in several generations,” the report adds.
The report also includes sections on “Erosion of Trust,” “Paranoid Populism” and “Effects of Climate Devastation.”
“Law enforcement should anticipate that these destructive weather patterns will affect all facets of government, including damage to critical infrastructure, increasing pressure to cede Arctic territory, and more,” the report cautions. “Law enforcement should expect continuing social and political polarization fueled by misinformation campaigns and an increasing mistrust for all democratic institutions.”
A section on the “Arctic” warns that Northern Canada will experience the effects of climate change sooner than the rest of the country.
“Shrinking polar icecaps are providing access to untapped raw materials and new paths for transportation,” the report explains. “This new opportunity for profit is causing several countries to expand their territorial claims in the area.”
The report also highlights challenges posed by new and emerging technologies.
“Through such mechanisms as social media, the Internet of Things, and biometric identifiers, big data is and will increasingly be available on a scale that is difficult to quantify,” it adds. “Access to this data will allow private entities to develop the means to exercise undue influence over individuals and populations at an unprecedented level.”
Titled “Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends for Canada,” the report was based on information compiled by the RCMP between June and October 2022. It was obtained through an access to information request and provided to CTVNews.ca by Matt Malone, an assistant law professor and government secrecy researcher at Thompson Rivers University in B.C.
Despite being based on “open source information,” entire pages and sections are redacted in white.
In their response to Malone, the RCMP cited part 15 of Canada’s Access to Information Act, which allows government institutions to withhold information that “could reasonably be expected to be injurious to the conduct of international affairs, the defence of Canada or any state allied or associated with Canada or the detection, prevention or suppression of subversive or hostile activities.”
In a statement to CTVNews.ca, the RCMP said the report was written by the force’s Federal Policing Strategic Management team in 2023.
“The Whole of Government Five Year Trends (2023) report was a forecasting exercise, based on a review of open-source articles and reports,” the spokesperson said by email. “It was undertaken to provide Federal Policing managers with insight into anticipated changes in Canada’s political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal circumstances, aiding in safeguarding Canada.”
The last page of the report underscores the destabilizing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“In the wake of COVID-19, Canada’s governments have normalized operating during a respiratory pandemic,” it says. “But the damage to the economy and to the social fabric of the nation is ongoing, and there is an established opposition to existing and potential public health measures and other restrictions.”
The final section – “Next Steps” – is completely redacted in white.
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
