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Sen. Pat Toomey to retire from politics in blow to GOP – POLITICO

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Republican Sen. Pat Toomey formally announced Monday he will neither run for reelection nor run for governor in 2022, a major blow to Republicans’ long-term plans of competing statewide in Pennsylvania.

Toomey explained the curious timing of his announcement as a reaction to all the inquiries he’d received about running for either the governor’s office or reelection. The two-term fiscal conservative said he decided within the past few days to bow out of politics and head to the private sector and decided to disclose his plans in the middle of the 2020 presidential campaign because he wanted to be transparent.

“I’ve made a decision, it’s not going to change, and I want everybody to know,” Toomey said. He informed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) before his announcement, according to a source briefed on the conversation. The news leaked out Sunday, and was first reported by The Philadelphia Inquirer and confirmed by POLITICO.

Toomey said he supports President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign and would be open to serving as a surrogate and campaigning for a president whom he didn’t endorse until Election Day in 2016: “I hope to be serving these last two years with President Donald Trump reelected. I support his campaign, I support his reelection.”

He also said he is “cautiously optimistic” his party would retain its majority at the ballot box this fall amid a fierce battle for the Senate, which would make him Senate Banking Committee chair for his last two years.

Toomey is the only statewide elected Republican politician in office in the Keystone State, though it remains a presidential battleground and top target for both parties. Trump, however, is trailing in the state by significant margins and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) was easily reelected in 2018, suggesting a tough road ahead for Republicans winning statewide.

The two-term senator and former House member asserted that “if I decided to run I would have won again.” Toomey defeated Democrat Katie McGinty in 2016 by 1.5 percentage points, a victory that helped provide McConnell’s six-year majority that he’s now in danger of losing. He said the realization that he will have spent 18 of 24 years as a politician drove his decision to return to the private sector.

Toomey’s move also puts Republicans at an immediate disadvantage as they survey the 2022 Senate landscape.

Pickup opportunities for the GOP may be limited to Democratic-leaning states like New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada as well as whoever wins this year’s Arizona Senate election. By contrast, Republicans will have have to defend Toomey’s seat as well as seats held by Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). Burr has already announced he will retire.

And while Toomey’s retirement is a loss for the Republican Party, it also will leave a void in the Senate, where Toomey remains something of an outlier. Though a die-hard fiscal conservative, Toomey occasionally broke with his party. He is one of just two Senate Republicans still serving that supports expanded background checks on gun sales and is the only member of his conference to oppose Trump’s new trade deal with Mexico and Canada.

His responses to reporters in the Senate hallways are often curt as he dashes from his office to the Senate floor, but he’s also been among the most willing Republicans to criticize Trump, sometimes mildly and other times with gusto. Toomey loathes many of Trump’s tariffs and trade policies, voted to block Trump’s national emergency declaration at the border and said “commuting Roger Stone’s sentence is a mistake.”

Toomey also called Trump’s actions during his impeachment trial “inappropriate,” though he voted to acquit the president. But though he’s clearly not entirely comfortable with the style of the brash president, Toomey said Trump’s conduct had no bearing on his own decision-making.

“I decided early on I am not responsible for the president’s Twitter feed, I am not responsible for editing his comments in any given medium. I work with this president on a regular basis, it’s a very constructive relationship,” Toomey told reporters. “When I’ve disagreed with him, which I have, I haven’t been bashful about saying so. But that has nothing to do with this decision.”

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Biden Viewed Positively, Trump More Negatively After Capitol Riot – Pew Research Center

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Pew Research Center conducted this study to examine the public’s reactions to the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, including a look into Americans’ views of Joe Biden as the president-elect and thoughts about the insurrection that took place at the Capitol earlier this month. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,360 U.S. adults in January 2021. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.

Here are the questions used for the report, along with responses, and its methodology.

As Joe Biden prepares to take office just days after a deadly riot inside the U.S. Capitol, 64% of voters express a positive opinion of his conduct since he won the November election. Majorities also approve of Biden’s Cabinet selections and how he has explained his plans and policies for the future.

Donald Trump is leaving the White House with the lowest job approval of his presidency (29%) and increasingly negative ratings for his post-election conduct. The share of voters who rate Trump’s conduct since the election as only fair or poor has risen from 68% in November to 76%, with virtually all of the increase coming in his “poor” ratings (62% now, 54% then).

Trump voters, in particular, have grown more critical of their candidate’s post-election conduct. The share of his supporters who describe his conduct as poor has doubled over the past two months, from 10% to 20%.

The new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 8-12 among 5,360 U.S. adults, including 4,040 who say they voted in the presidential election, finds that a sizable majority of Americans do not want Trump to remain a major political figure after he leaves office. About two-thirds (68%) say Trump should not continue to be a major national political figure for many years to come; just 29% say he should remain a major figure in U.S. politics.

Chart shows majority of public does not want Trump to remain a major political figure

For many, the shocking events of Jan. 6 – when some Trump supporters heeded the president’s call to march to the Capitol to protest Congress’ acceptance of Biden’s victory and then went on a violent rampage throughout the building – have seriously marred Trump’s final days as president.

Three-quarters of the public say the president bears at least some responsibility for the violence and destruction committed by some of his supporters, with 52% saying he bears a lot of responsibility for their actions. Just about a quarter (24%) say Trump has no responsibility for what took place.

The House voted Jan. 13 to impeach Trump for a second time, charging the president with “inciting violence against the government of the United States.” A narrow majority of Americans (54%) say it would be better for the country for Trump to be removed from office, with Vice President Mike Pence finishing the last few days of his term, while 45% say Trump should remain in office until his term ends Jan. 20.

Chart shows most Americans say Trump bears at least some responsibility for violence at the U.S. Capitol

As has been the case throughout Trump’s four years as president, Republicans and Democrats remain deeply divided – in this case, over Trump’s culpability in the unprecedented assault on the Capitol and whether he should be removed from office in the final days of his presidency.

Only about half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (52%) say Trump bears any responsibility for the violence and destruction in the Capitol and 79% do not think he should be removed from office before Jan. 20. Virtually all Democrats and Democratic leaners (95%) say Trump bears at least some responsibility for the riot– and 83% favor his removal as president.

These deep divisions extend to opinions about the election result itself. Biden will be inaugurated Jan. 20 with a large segment of Trump voters viewing Trump as the winner of the election, despite scores of failed court challenges to the election brought by Trump’s lawyers and Congress’ confirmation of Biden’s Electoral College victory in the early morning hours of Jan. 7.

Among voters overall, 65% say Biden definitely or probably “received the most votes cast by eligible voters in enough states to win the election”; 54% say he definitely won the most votes. But 34% incorrectly say Trump definitely or probably was the rightful election winner.

The survey provides new insights into how Republicans and Republican leaners – a broader group than just Trump voters – view the president as he prepares to exit the White House. Democrats continue to be uniformly critical of Trump.

Republicans have mixed views of Trump’s post-election conduct and his responsibility for the violent events of Jan. 6; fewer than half (46%) say he bears no responsibility for the Capitol riot.

Chart shows after Capitol riot, Republicans have reservations about Trump, but most say incorrectly that he won the election

However, a 64% majority agrees with his contention – disproved in numerous court decisions and rejected by Congress itself – that he is the rightful winner of the election.

When the responses to four measures on Trump and his future are combined, GOP internal divisions emerge: 29% hold all four positions – that is, they endorse Trump’s post-election conduct, hold him blameless for the riot, believe he is the election’s rightful winner and want him to have a major role in politics going forward. However, nearly as many Republicans – 25% – hold none of these views. And nearly half of Republicans (46%) hold some combination of these positions, agreeing with some but not others.

Biden enters office on a positive note

Chart shows nearly six-in-ten Americans approve of how Biden has explained his policies and plans

Biden will take office Jan. 20 with relatively strong performance ratings: The new survey, conducted on Pew Research Center’s nationally representative online American Trends Panel, finds that 58% of Americans approve of the job Biden has done in explaining his plans and policies. In a January 2017 telephone survey, a smaller share (39%) approved of how Trump had explained his plans for the presidency; in an early 2009 phone survey, Barack Obama had a 70% approval rating on the same measure.

A nearly identical majority of Americans – 57% – approve of Biden’s Cabinet choices and other high-level appointments. Almost half (46%) expect Biden to improve the way the federal government in Washington, D.C., works, while 28% say he will make things worse; 24% say he will not have much of an effect.

Chart shows as Biden era begins, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to favor trying to forge compromises

With the Democratic Party winning the White House and narrow control of the Senate, while retaining a House majority, Democrats broadly endorse efforts by Biden to forge bipartisan compromises with Republicans. Republicans, by contrast, are far more reluctant to see their party’s congressional leaders work with Biden.

About six-in-ten Democrats (62%) say Biden should try to work with Republican leaders “even it means disappointing some of his voters.” Far fewer (37%) want Biden to “stand up” to Republicans even if it’s harder to address critical issues.

Among Democrats, conservatives and moderates (69%) are more likely than liberals (55%) to favor Biden working with Republicans.

A majority of Republicans (59%) want their party’s leaders to “stand up” to Biden; 38% say they should try to work with Biden even if means disappointing some GOP voters. A sizable majority of conservative Republicans (69%) favor GOP leaders standing up to Biden, compared with 44% of GOP moderates and liberals.

Other major findings from the survey

Chart shows Trump’s job approval drops sharply, almost entirely among Republicans

Opposition to Trump, increased mail and early voting widely viewed as major reasons for election result. Two-thirds of voters (67%) say a major reason for the election result was that “many voters were excited to vote against Trump”; majorities also cite the increased availability of mail and early voting (59%) and the Trump administration’s failure to do a good job in handling the coronavirus outbreak (55%). Only 32% cite widespread illegal voting and fraud; 70% of Trump voters cite this as a major reason for the election result, compared with just 2% of Biden voters.

Most think election cheating occurs often or sometimes. About eight-in-ten Americans say political candidates and campaigns often (36%) or sometimes (43%) do illegal things to ensure they have the best chance of winning. Of those who say such activities occur (even very rarely), 46% say they are done about equally by both parties; 27% say such actions are committed more often by Democrats and 26% more often by Republicans.

Trump job approval has fallen sharply since August. Throughout most of his presidency, Trump’s job rating remained more stable than those of his predecessors; it never surpassed 45% or dipped below 36%. But his job approval now stands at just 29%, down 9 percentage points since August and the lowest of his presidency. Much of the decline has come among Republicans and GOP leaners:  Currently, 60% approve of his job performance; 77% approved in August.

Americans split in their views of Kamala Harris. Harris will make history on Jan. 20 by becoming the nation’s first woman vice president and first Black American and first Asian American to assume this role. Half of Americans say the vice president-elect is qualified to serve as president, while nearly as many say she is not. A majority of the public (55%) expects her to have about the right amount of influence in the Biden administration; 36% say she will have too much influence, while 7% say she will have too little influence.

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Two-Thirds of Americans Want Trump to Disappear From Politics – Bloomberg

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The tumultuous final weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency have damaged his already low public standing, with 68% of Americans saying they want Trump’s political career to end.

A Pew Research Center survey released Friday shows Trump with the lowest approval number of his presidency at 29%, driven by last week’s assault on the U.S. Capitol by a violent mob and Trump’s subsequent impeachment for instigating the attack.

A 75% majority of Americans — including 52% of Republicans — say Trump bears some responsibility for the Capitol riots, which led to the deaths of five people. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is now looking into alleged plots to assassinate Vice President Mike Pence and other top lawmakers, driven by Trump-fueled and baseless conspiracy theories that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

QuickTake: Impeaching an Ex-President Raises Issues of Why, How

Only 23% of those who voted in the November election say Trump’s conduct since then has been “good” or “excellent,” down from 31% in November.

President-elect Joe Biden has received largely positive reviews of his conduct, with 64% saying he’s conducted himself well since the election.

Biden’s cabinet choices have gotten 57% approval, and 56% say he’s done a good job explaining his policies. Four years ago, only 39% said the same about Trump.

Pew conducted the survey Jan. 8-12 among 5,360 U.S. adults, including 4,040 who said they voted in the presidential election. The margin of error is 1.9 percentage points.

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    Democrats Stop Playing the Politics of Fiscal Restraint – Bloomberg

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    Get Jonathan Bernstein’s newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe.

    President-elect Joe Biden rolled out his first big legislative priority in a Thursday night speech: A $1.9 trillion virus-fighting and economic bailout package.

    The first thing to say is that Biden’s speech drove the final nail into the coffin of mainstream liberal attempts to make Democrats the party of fiscal restraint, efforts that began in earnest after Republicans adopted big-deficit policies at the beginning of Ronald Reagan’s presidency in 1981. For almost 40 years, Democrats tried and failed to convince journalists and pundits that they were the party that cared about federal budget deficits. Over the same period, Democrats occasionally sought credit from voters for lowering (and even, when Bill Clinton was president in the 1990s, erasing) deficits.

    To be sure, Democrats were still Keynesians, favoring expanded deficits during hard times. But they also came to believe in paying for new spending even when that meant supporting higher taxes when they thought increased revenues were needed. As recently as Barack Obama’s presidency, they tried to rein in deficits when they got high.

    That seems over. Congressional Democrats in 2020 spent freely (and tried to spend even more) to fight the coronavirus pandemic and rescue the economy. New rules in the House of Representatives de-emphasize the costs of new programs. Biden not only asked for a large bill only a few weeks after Congress passed a $900 billion round of virus-relief spending, but took on the argument head-on, saying that economists supported larger deficits right now. I don’t think that Democrats will flip all the way to simply ignoring deficits, and some moderate Democrats may split with mainstream liberals over fiscal policy as time goes on, but it really does sound like the center of the party has moved.

    The other thing to say about Biden’s rollout was just how professional it was. The speech wasn’t particularly memorable or well-delivered in my view, but it was solidly constructed and won’t give the fact-checkers much to do. Nor was it undermined by nonsensical ad-libs. Oh, and Biden does know how to use a teleprompter. His staff also knows how to build (and demonstrate) support, as NBC News correspondent Garrett Haake noted in this tweet Thursday night: “My inbox and Twitter timeline are flooded with statements from Democrats (and even the Chamber of Commerce) in support of the Biden COVID rescue plan. I had almost forgotten what a coordinated policy rollout looks like.”

    That doesn’t guarantee it will wind up passing. The Biden team is apparently hoping to treat the relief legislation as a regular bill, which means that it will need to get through the narrow Democratic majority in the House and then find 60 votes to defeat a Senate filibuster in a chamber where each party will have 50 members. And while there are some items that will appeal to many Republican senators, and others they will be reluctant to vote against, a deal requiring at least 10 Republicans to sign on seems unlikely.

    Unless that’s wrong, Democrats will either have to eliminate the legislative filibuster, or accept only what they could get under the current rules governing the “reconciliation” procedure that can avoid a filibuster — or loosen those reconciliation rules. It’s possible that moderate Democrats might be willing to support Senate rules changes to pass funding for vaccination and other emergency health-care needs, and for some economic relief. But they almost certainly would demand that some liberal priorities in Biden’s plan be dropped.

    Biden and his team — and for that matter, both House and Senate Democratic leaders — are experienced deal-makers. For the most part, the coronavirus package is built for negotiations; it’s relatively easy to bargain over financing levels as long as both sides want eventual passage. But whether a sufficient number of senators will really want a deal? That’s hard to know at this point.

    1. Davin L. Phoenix at the Monkey Cage on anger and race.

    2. Reid Wilson talks to Biden’s Chief of Staff Ron Klain about how the administration intends to get to work. A must-read. Key fact: Klain says that Biden will have more people in the agencies (political appointees who don’t need Senate confirmation) from Day 1 than Obama had after 100 days. Obama was bad about filling vacancies. President Donald Trump was terrible. Biden, it seems, might be be good at it. We’ll see.

    3. Jonathan Cohn on the vaccine rollout.

    4. Katlyn Marie Carter at Made By History revisits the Sedition Act of 1798.

    5. Bloomberg’s Joshua Green on Liz Cheney’s vote for impeachment.

    6. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Elisa Martinuzzi on Deutsche Bank AG and Trump.

    7. And Peter Jamison, Carol D. Leonnig and Paul Schwartzman have the epic story about why the Secret Service has been renting toilets in Kalorama.

    Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.

      This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

      To contact the author of this story:
      Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

      To contact the editor responsible for this story:
      Jonathan Landman at jlandman4@bloomberg.net

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