Sports

Sens make smart bet on young star Stützle – TSN

Published

2 years ago

September 7, 2022

Ottawa’s Tim Stützle is a star in the making. And it seems general manager Pierre Dorion shares that opinion, as the team announced Wednesday a max-term extension for the 20-year old, now signed on a $66.8 million dollar contract through the 2030-31 season.

Stützle entered the league with quite the pedigree. A former third overall pick (2020) whose play with Germany at the IIHF World Junior Championships drew immediate scouting attention from North America. And since entering the league, Stützle has been a solid top-six forward. His sophomore season saw him tally 59 points (22 goals and 36-assists) and just as notably, meaningful developmental steps as a two-way centreman.

If you hadn’t watched much of Stützle last season, you might bristle a bit at the size of the contract relative to his counting numbers. After all, we are talking about a player who was out-scored by players like Florida’s Anthony Duclair and St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, the latter doing it in just 60 games. And maybe more concerningly, Ottawa again was upside-down with Stützle on the ice. The Senators were outscored 56-44 (minus-12) with him on the ice at even strength last season, begging the question just how impactful the second-year professional was.

But this is where context matters a great deal, particularly for a younger player. Ottawa has been trying to push out of a deep and ugly rebuild for some time now, and the quality of talent around the lineup has been, to say the least, limited. All Stützle has ever known has been a weak blue-line behind him, and only recently has the team put scoring weaponry around him. We know quality of teammates – especially for truly young players – matters a great deal. And such was true for players that pre-dated Stützle’s extension, too. Because if you are going to knock Stützle for being run-over in Ottawa last season, you must consider other players who were ran over early in their careers, too.

If you look at Stützle’s on-ice numbers, it’s clear where the weakness was, and that was on the defensive side. Ottawa bled goals – the weak blue-line certainly contributory, as were a collection of young forwards and some shaky play from goaltender Matt Murray. To that end, let’s differentiate young forwards with upside-down on-ice results into two categories: those who didn’t generate offence, and those who couldn’t stop the bleeding defensively:

First, the heavily utilized young players – many with draft pedigree – who couldn’t generate meaningful offence:

There is plenty of NHL talent on this list, and a few players who ended up becoming real stars. Headlining that list from this group would include Nashville’s Ryan Johansen, Calgary’s Elias Lindholm, Philadelphia’s Sean Couturier, and St. Louis’ Ryan O’Reilly. Interestingly, the latter three players are considered some of the best defensive centres in the league; their sticking power, and why they ended up realizing big contracts, was because they were so tough to score against.

But there are a lot of players whose inability to create offensively stuck with them as they aged into the league. And as the talent around them changed, the defensive numbers they posted early in their careers started cratering. It’s why you see so many players on this list who were (a) drafted high; but (b) have only been able to carve out middle-six or depth-type roles in the league.

Now, the opposite: players who did generate offence, but bled goals against in heavy minutes:

A much more impressive group at first glance. Almost every single one of these skaters has had long-term sticking power and the outliers are to the downside – players like Edmonton’s Sam Gagner, or Buffalo’s Casey Mittelstadt look out of place here.

And then look at the star power amongst the rest of the group. Calgary’s Jonathan Huberdeau just posted a 115-point season. Toronto’s John Tavares will cross the 400 goal threshold this season. Mika Zibanejad has become a star in New York, and on a related note, also an integral piece in what appears to be one of the most lopsided trades of the past decade. Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen? His shoulders are a bit sore this summer from hoisting the Stanley Cup. That’s just for starters.

Another thing that’s not lost on me? Look at the related statistical measures, like net shots and net expected goals. These are always worth checking in on to see if on-ice measures like goals – immensely valuable, but few and far between relative to shots and scoring chances – are lying to us. Consider the two groups based on their pre-age 21 play:

Despite having similar on-ice challenges, the underlying numbers were much more encouraging for the forwards who couldn’t realize defensive success. The defensive laggards were considerably better on both fronts, a strong indication their on-ice numbers were less representative of their overall play than the offensive laggards.

So what’s going on here? There is no exact science (duh) with player evaluation, but a few critical points here:

– Forwards tend to have more individual control over offensive production than defensive production;
– Defensive performance is more fleeting at the team-level than offensive performance, which makes the offensive components a bit more reliable as predictive measures for future play;
– Front offices historically skew pay for forwards based on their individual contributions (i.e. goals and assists); and
– Quality of teammates matter, as always

Something to chew on for that last point: Stützle’s most common year-one linemates were Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev, and Chris Tierney. In year two, that became Alex Formenton, Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub, and Connor Brown, with a little Brady Tkachuk sprinkled in. Big upgrade.

Year three? Early indications his line will feature a 41-goal scorer in Alex DeBrincat and veteran playmaker Claude Giroux. With a heavy dose of the Chabot pairing behind him, Stützle and his playmaking ability are being armed in an incredible fashion.

Ottawa’s trying to front-run a breakout season from Stützle in year three by taking care of his extension a year early.

We will have to wait to see if it’s the right bet, but as a prognosticator considering all of the circumstances, I love Ottawa’s wager here.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, NHL.com, Hockey Reference

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Canada’s Marina Stakusic falls in Guadalajara Open quarterfinals

Published

1 day ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.

The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.

Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.

In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.

The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Kirk’s walk-off single in 11th inning lifts Blue Jays past Cardinals 4-3

Published

1 day ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.

With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.

Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.

Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.

Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.

He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.

The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.

Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.

He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.

George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.

Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.

In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.

St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.

ON DECK

Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.

The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Stampeders return to Maier at QB eyeing chance to get on track against Alouettes

Published

1 day ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.

It won’t be an easy assignment.

Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.

“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”

Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”

Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.

After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.

“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”

Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.

“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.

A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.

“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”

But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.

“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”

Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”

“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.

Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.

“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”

While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.

“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”

The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.

“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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