TORONTO —
This is not a bright moment in Canada’s fight against the novel coronavirus.
Nationally, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 diagnoses is as high as it’s ever been.
On Friday, Ontario announced its highest single-day total of new cases to date. On Saturday, it was Quebec’s turn. In Manitoba, nearly two-thirds of all known cases have been logged in the past month.
Even some parts of the country less affected by the pandemic are showing a resurgence in virus activity. Prince Edward Island has recorded 13 cases of COVID-19 in the past 32 days – a worrying number when compared to the 16 cases detected on the island in the previous 127 days.
All of this lends weight to what politicians and public health authorities have been saying since long before the increases began: The virus will not disappear on its own, and Canadians’ individual actions may well determine whether the second wave is manageable or uncontrollable.
There’s a message of hope buried in that warning. But there’s also the reality that many important factors are beyond the control of individual Canadians.
Here are seven reasons why the recent increases in COVID-19 activity in Canada may only be the tip of the iceberg.
HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE RISING
When daily case counts started to trend upward, there was a persistent chorus arguing that it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, because hospitalization numbers weren’t moving with them.
However, hospitalizations are known to be a lag indicator. When case counts increase, it is a week or more before hospitalizations move in the same direction.
For most of the summer, the number of Canadian COVID-19 patients in hospital was actually decreasing day by day. That’s not the case anymore. There hasn’t been a single day with a declining hospitalization number since Sept. 16. Over the past two weeks, most days have brought an increase of at least 20 patients.
The number of hospitalizations in Ontario and Quebec has tripled in recent weeks, according to The Canadian Press, while British Columbia’s hospitalization number quadrupled in September.
“We certainly are getting a gradual and steady increase in the number of people who are seeking hospital care,” Dr. Matthew Oughton, an infectious diseases specialist at the McGill University Health Centre in Montreal, told CTV News Channel on Sunday.
Many experts believe the rising hospitalization numbers are a sign that the virus is again being spread to seniors and other vulnerable groups, after a summer during which it was most active in young adults – a demographic less likely to suffer severe symptoms.
CASES ARE A LAG INDICATOR TOO
The number of cases announced on any given day does not reflect the virus transmission situation on that day.
Accepted wisdom among epidemiologists is that it takes up to two weeks before changes in societal behaviour are reflected in the daily case counts.
“We may well see the numbers at least continue, if not climb, for another week before we even begin to see a bit of a slowdown,” Oughton said.
If the numbers continue to climb, governments may decide to impose harsher measures – but it will be another two weeks or so before those decisions have any effect on the daily numbers.
THE HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE READY
When most provinces enacted lockdown-like measures in the spring, the stated reason was that they were necessary to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sudden influxes of large numbers of COVID-19 patients.
Now, case counts are back where they were at the height of the first wave and hospitalizations are also increasing – but governments clearly do not want to order businesses to close their doors once again.
As a result, concerns have been voiced by the medical community that there could be a fast ramp-up in the number of patients seeking COVID-19 care – and that the health-care sector may not be prepared for this. The Ontario Hospital Association recently wrote the province asking for a return to lockdown in the hardest-hit areas.
“Our health-care system is incredibly precarious at the best of times,” Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an assistant professor in infectious diseases as the University of Alberta,” said Sunday on CTV News Channel.
Most health-care professionals have stopped short asking for lockdowns to be re-enacted, despite clear worries about what may be ahead. A survey by the Canadian Medical Association found that more than two-thirds of community-based doctors are worried they won’t be able to obtain enough personal protective equipment to keep them and their patients safe.
Hard-hit Ontario has attempted to stem these fears, announcing last week that it plans to hire 1,400 nurses to work at hospitals and long-term care homes. However, it is not known how soon all those positions can be filled.
TESTING AND TRACING BACKLOGS
Wearing a mask is a great way to help reduce the spead of COVID-19, while washing your handsand physical distancing is a great way of protecting yourself.
But getting every single person on-board with all of those actions all of the time is virtually impossible. That’s where governments need to pick up the slack – and it has become clear through the pandemic that widespread testing, rapid processing of test results, and thorough contact tracing are the best way they can do that.
It may be a problem, then, that several provinces are finding it difficult to pull off effective testing and tracing.
Alberta recently introduced new testing criteria in an attempt to prioritize the most important potential cases. Testing capacity in Manitoba is low enough that some Winnipeggers have reported waiting in line for four hours or more, and others have driven an hour outside the city to get tested.
The worst situation of all may well be in Ontario, where the testing backlog routinely numbers in the tens of thousands, leaving some unable to get results for up to a week.
That creates another problem. The longer it takes for a positive test result to be known, the less effective contact tracing is.
Toronto Public Health, the province’s largest public health unit, announced Friday that it is now only performing contact tracing for the highest-risk scenarios – a far cry from the testing of all cases that helped some countries in other parts of the world beat back the virus.
“Ontario has lost control of COVID. I say that because we’re no longer able to do contact tracing. We’re no longer able to do testing in a reasonable period of time,” Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, said Sunday on CTV News Channel.
Oughton said he would not be surprised if other jurisdictions followed Toronto’s lead in the near future, reducing their contact-tracing efforts because there are too many cases coming in for them to stay on top of each one.
THE VIRUS IS SPREADING INTO NEW AREAS
The northern half of Manitoba is an isolated place.
Many communities are an hour’s drive, or more, from their closest neighbours. Most of the rest are even less accessible than that, because they don’t have all-season roads. Anyone wanting to enter or leave the community has limited options: an ice road if the water has frozen over, a boat or canoe if it hasn’t, or shelling out for airfare.
In other words, northern Manitoba is a very difficult place for a virus to thrive.
There were three cases of COVID-19 detected in Manitoba’s northern health region in a nine-day span early in the pandemic. Then, for more than four months, there was nothing. Not a single case. The province even put a travel ban in place, restricting non-essential travel from Winnipeg and other southern communities because of fears visitors could reintroduce the virus.
All was going well. Then came the past week.
There have been 13 cases of COVID-19 in northern Manitoba since Sept. 27. Seven of them have been traced to one family in York Factory First Nation. There is an eighth case in York Factory and three other Indigenous communities have also reported active cases.
This is the most extreme example of a new phenomenon: COVID-19 showing up in remote parts of Canada where it had not been a problem before.
Although the initial case is believed to have stemmed from an exposure outside Nunavut, the latest outbreak suggests that the virus has finally made its way to Canada’s most isolated territory.
THE GLOBAL PICTURE
Nunavut was able to avoid COVID-19 until recently by almost completely sealing itself off from the rest of the world.
Canada hasn’t done that, and that leaves it susceptible to COVID-19 arriving from abroad.
Despite a pervasive belief that the border is closed, there are a wide variety of exemptions that allow essential workers, Canadian citizens and permanent residents and their families, international students and others into the country.
More than 49,000 travellers entered Canada by air during the week of Sept. 21 to 27, according to the Canada Border Service Agency, including more than 16,000 passengers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents. Another 187,500 entries were recorded at the U.S. land border.
This is particularly concerning because Canada is not the only country grappling with renewed COVID-19 activity – and some nations are reporting numbers that dwarf what’s happening here. France and Poland both reported record high daily case counts on Saturday, while Italy and Germany hit their highest marks since April.
To this point, arrivals from abroad have not been a major driver of COVID-19 spread in Canada. Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said Friday that between two and three per cent of cases have been tied to international travel.
WINTER IS COMING
Evidence is mounting that it is easier for COVID-19 to spread indoors – especially in places where people are eating or loudly talking without wearing masks and without distancing properly.
That could be a problem as fall-like weather sets in across Canada, with colder temperatures making the idea of spending substantial time outside less appealing.
Warnings of a “long winter” have led to a surge in demand for patio heaters and other outdoor equipment, but many Canadians may find it difficult to brave the elements more than they normally would.
Pair that with indications that “pandemic fatigue” is setting in, and some experts are concerned that some Canadians may adopt risky behaviours this winter – potentially easing the path of COVID-19.
“I am concerned that there’s going to be more mingling than there should be,” Furness said. He would like to see hard-hit regions shut all bars, restaurants and gyms until the virus is better brought under control.
Dr. Brian Conway, president and medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, said Saturday on CTV News Channel, that Canadians need to brace themselves for extended isolation, even if a full lockdown never happens.
“Many people are not accepting that the old normal is gone for a long time, that we have to embrace a new normal,” he said.
“We need to get messaging out there so that people feel good about making the right decision, and the numbers go down.”
BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — Hearing the familiar sounds of clacking sticks and pucks banging off the boards and glass while watching Columbus Blue Jackets prospects from the stands of a cold rink on a warm late-summer afternoon was not enough to wash away the lingering residuals of grief for Don Waddell on Saturday.
That, the Blue Jackets’ general manager acknowledged, will take more time than anyone can guess — weeks, months, perhaps an entire season and beyond.
What mattered is how spending the weekend attending the Sabres Prospects Challenge represented a start to what Waddell called among the first steps in refocusing on hockey and the future in the aftermath of the deaths of Columbus star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, who were struck by a suspected drunken driver while riding bicycles on Aug 29.
“We got to play hockey,” Waddell said. “We’re not going to forget about Johnny and his family, the Gaudreau family.”
“Everybody knows that Johnny wants them to play hockey,” Waddell said. “And everybody’s rallying around that.”
The resumption of hockey in Columbus began last week, when most Blue Jackets players returned to their facility to be together and lean on each other at the urging of Waddell and team captain Boone Jenner. And it will continue on Thursday, when the team opens training camp, exactly three weeks since the Gaudreaus were killed.
“Tragic. Senseless. But now we got to focus on trying to get our team ready to play hockey this year,” Waddell said. “We all mourn and heal differently, but I think as a team being together like that is going to be critical for them to get moving forward.”
Waddell was general manager of the then-Atlanta Thrashers in 2003 when Dany Heatley lost control of his car and struck a wall, with the crash killing passenger and teammate Dan Snyder. In 2021, Blue Jackets goalie Matiss Kivlenieks died during a July Fourth fireworks accident.
Waddell placed the emphasis on himself and coach Dean Evason — both newcomers to Columbus this offseason — to guide the team through what will be an emotional season.
“Now, do I think there’s going to be some dark days? I won’t be surprised,” Waddell said.
Reminders of the Gaudreaus’ deaths remain apparent, and reflected in Buffalo on Friday night. A moment of silence was held in tribute to the brothers before the opening faceoff of a game between the Blue Jackets and Sabres.
Afterward, Columbus prospect Gavin Brindley recalled the times he spent with Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus and as teammates representing the United States at the world hockey championships in the Czech Republic in May.
“He was one of the biggest mentors for me at the world championships,” Brindley said. “I couldn’t tell you how many times we hung out with Meredith, pictures on my phone. It’s just so hard to look back and see that kind of stuff.”
The NHL and NHL Players’ Association are providing the Blue Jackets help in the form of grief counseling, crowd security at vigils and addressing hockey issues, such as potentially altering the league’s salary cap rules to provide Columbus relief from having to reach the NHL minimum payroll because of the void left by Gaudreau’s contract.
“The Blue Jackets, I don’t think anybody’s focused from an organizational standpoint, from a hockey standpoint as to what comes next, because I think everybody’s still in shock,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman told The Associated Press last week. “I don’t think anybody’s focused right now other than on the grieving part, which is understandable.”
Much of the burden has fallen to Waddell, who has been in discussions with the NHL and the NHLPA and dealing with outreach programs with the Blue Jackets’ partner OhioHealth, while also overseeing preparations for training camp and gauging his prospects in Buffalo.
There’s also his roster to attend to, which he said has two openings at forward, one involving Justin Danforth, who may miss the start of the season because of a wrist injury. Waddell didn’t have to mention the second opening.
Tiring and emotional as it’s been, Waddell found comfort being in his element, a rink, and looking ahead to the start of training camp.
“The guys are in really good shape. We’ve done a lot of testing already and they’re eager to get going,” Waddell said. “We have a reason to play for. And we’ll make the best of it.”
The Blue Jackets later Sunday signed veteran winger James van Riemsdyk to a one-year contract worth $900,000.
“James van Riemsdyk has been a very consistent, productive player throughout his career,” Waddell said. “Bringing him to Columbus will not only provide depth to our group up front, but also valuable leadership and another veteran presence in our dressing room.”
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AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno in New York contributed to this report.
PARIS (AP) — Paris Saint-Germain defender Nuno Mendes was the target of abusive and racist comments on social media after a French league game.
The club condemned the abuse and expressed its “full support” Sunday for the Portugal left back, who was targeted following PSG’s 3-1 win against Brest on Saturday.
Mendes, who is Black, shared on his Instagram account a racist message he received.
During the match, Mendes brought down Ludovic Ajorque in the box for a penalty that Romain Del Castillo converted to give Brest the lead.
“Paris Saint-Germain doesn’t tolerate racism, antisemitism or any other form of discrimination,” the club said. “The racial insults directed at Nuno Mendes are totally unacceptable … we are working with the relevant authorities and associations to ensure those responsible are held accountable for their actions.”
MONTREAL – Tadej Pogacar was so dominant on Sunday, Canada’s Michael Woods called it a race for second.
Pogacar, a three-time Tour de France champion from Slovenia, pedalled to a resounding victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal.
The UAE Team Emirates leader crossed the finish line 24 seconds ahead of Spain’s Pello Bilbao of Bahrain — Victorious to win the demanding 209.1-kilometre race on a sunny, 28 C day in Montreal. France’s Julian Alaphilippe of Soudal Quick-Step was third.
“He’s the greatest rider of all time, he’s a formidable opponent,” said Woods, who finished 45 seconds behind the leader in eighth. “If you’re not at your very, very best, then you can forget racing with him, and today was kind of representative of that.
“He’s at such a different level that if you follow him, it can be lights out.”
Pogacar slowed down before the last turn to celebrate with the crowd, high-five fans on Avenue du Parc and cruise past the finish line with his arms in the air after more than five hours on the bike.
The 25-year-old joined Belgium’s Greg Van Avermaet as the only multi-time winners in Montreal after claiming the race in 2022. He also redeemed a seventh-place finish at the Quebec City Grand Prix on Friday.
“I was disappointed, because I had such good legs that I didn’t do better than seventh,” Pogacar said. “To bounce back after seventh to victory here, it’s just an incredible feeling.”
It’s Pogacar’s latest win in a dominant year that includes victories at the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia.
Ottawa’s Woods (Israel Premier-Tech) tied a career-best in front of the home crowd in Montreal, but hoped for more after claiming a stage at the Spanish Vuelta two weeks ago.
“I wanted a better result,” the 37-year-old rider said. “My goal was a podium, but at the same time I’m happy with the performance. In bike racing, you can’t always get the result you want and I felt like I raced really well, I animated the race, I felt like I was up there.”
Pogacar completed the 17 climbs up and down Mount Royal near downtown in five hours 28 minutes 15 seconds.
He made his move with 23.3 kilometres to go, leaving the peloton in his dust as he pedalled into the lead — one he never relinquished.
Bilbao, Alaphilippe, Alex Aranburu (Movistar Team) and Bart Lemmen (Visma–Lease) chased in a group behind him, with Bilbao ultimately separating himself from the pack. But he never came close to catching Pogacar, who built a 35-second lead with one lap left to go.
“It was still a really hard race today, but the team was on point,” Pogacar said. “We did really how we planned, and the race situation was good for us. We make it hard in the last final laps, and they set me up for a (takeover) two laps to go, and it was all perfect.”
Ottawa’s Derek Gee, who placed ninth in this year’s Tour de France, finished 48th in Montreal, and called it a “hard day” in the heat.
“I think everyone knows when you see Tadej on the start line that it’s just going to be full gas,” Gee said.
Israel Premier-Tech teammate Hugo Houle of Sainte-Perpétue, Que., was 51st.
Houle said he heard Pogacar inform his teammates on the radio that he was ready to attack with two laps left in the race.
“I said then, well, clearly it’s over for me,” Houle said. “You see, cycling isn’t that complicated.”
Australia’s Michael Matthews won the Quebec City GP for a record third time on Friday, but did not finish in Montreal. The two races are the only North American events on the UCI World Tour.
Michael Leonard of Oakville, Ont., and Gil Gelders and Dries De Bondt of Belgium broke away from the peloton during the second lap. Leonard led the majority of the race before losing pace with 45 kilometres to go.
Only 89 of 169 riders from 24 teams — including the Canadian national team — completed the gruelling race that features 4,573 metres in total altitude.
Next up, the riders will head to the world championships in Zurich, Switzerland from Sept. 21 to 29.
Pogacar will try to join Eddy Merckx (1974) and Stephen Roche (1987) as the only men to win three major titles in a season — known as the Triple Crown.
“Today gave me a lot of confidence, motivation,” Pogacar said. “I think we are ready for world championships.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
