TORONTO —
This is not a bright moment in Canada’s fight against the novel coronavirus.
Nationally, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 diagnoses is as high as it’s ever been.
On Friday, Ontario announced its highest single-day total of new cases to date. On Saturday, it was Quebec’s turn. In Manitoba, nearly two-thirds of all known cases have been logged in the past month.
Even some parts of the country less affected by the pandemic are showing a resurgence in virus activity. Prince Edward Island has recorded 13 cases of COVID-19 in the past 32 days – a worrying number when compared to the 16 cases detected on the island in the previous 127 days.
All of this lends weight to what politicians and public health authorities have been saying since long before the increases began: The virus will not disappear on its own, and Canadians’ individual actions may well determine whether the second wave is manageable or uncontrollable.
There’s a message of hope buried in that warning. But there’s also the reality that many important factors are beyond the control of individual Canadians.
Here are seven reasons why the recent increases in COVID-19 activity in Canada may only be the tip of the iceberg.
HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE RISING
When daily case counts started to trend upward, there was a persistent chorus arguing that it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, because hospitalization numbers weren’t moving with them.
However, hospitalizations are known to be a lag indicator. When case counts increase, it is a week or more before hospitalizations move in the same direction.
For most of the summer, the number of Canadian COVID-19 patients in hospital was actually decreasing day by day. That’s not the case anymore. There hasn’t been a single day with a declining hospitalization number since Sept. 16. Over the past two weeks, most days have brought an increase of at least 20 patients.
The number of hospitalizations in Ontario and Quebec has tripled in recent weeks, according to The Canadian Press, while British Columbia’s hospitalization number quadrupled in September.
“We certainly are getting a gradual and steady increase in the number of people who are seeking hospital care,” Dr. Matthew Oughton, an infectious diseases specialist at the McGill University Health Centre in Montreal, told CTV News Channel on Sunday.
Many experts believe the rising hospitalization numbers are a sign that the virus is again being spread to seniors and other vulnerable groups, after a summer during which it was most active in young adults – a demographic less likely to suffer severe symptoms.
CASES ARE A LAG INDICATOR TOO
The number of cases announced on any given day does not reflect the virus transmission situation on that day.
Accepted wisdom among epidemiologists is that it takes up to two weeks before changes in societal behaviour are reflected in the daily case counts.
“We may well see the numbers at least continue, if not climb, for another week before we even begin to see a bit of a slowdown,” Oughton said.
If the numbers continue to climb, governments may decide to impose harsher measures – but it will be another two weeks or so before those decisions have any effect on the daily numbers.
THE HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE READY
When most provinces enacted lockdown-like measures in the spring, the stated reason was that they were necessary to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sudden influxes of large numbers of COVID-19 patients.
Now, case counts are back where they were at the height of the first wave and hospitalizations are also increasing – but governments clearly do not want to order businesses to close their doors once again.
As a result, concerns have been voiced by the medical community that there could be a fast ramp-up in the number of patients seeking COVID-19 care – and that the health-care sector may not be prepared for this. The Ontario Hospital Association recently wrote the province asking for a return to lockdown in the hardest-hit areas.
“Our health-care system is incredibly precarious at the best of times,” Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an assistant professor in infectious diseases as the University of Alberta,” said Sunday on CTV News Channel.
Most health-care professionals have stopped short asking for lockdowns to be re-enacted, despite clear worries about what may be ahead. A survey by the Canadian Medical Association found that more than two-thirds of community-based doctors are worried they won’t be able to obtain enough personal protective equipment to keep them and their patients safe.
Hard-hit Ontario has attempted to stem these fears, announcing last week that it plans to hire 1,400 nurses to work at hospitals and long-term care homes. However, it is not known how soon all those positions can be filled.
TESTING AND TRACING BACKLOGS
Wearing a mask is a great way to help reduce the spead of COVID-19, while washing your handsand physical distancing is a great way of protecting yourself.
But getting every single person on-board with all of those actions all of the time is virtually impossible. That’s where governments need to pick up the slack – and it has become clear through the pandemic that widespread testing, rapid processing of test results, and thorough contact tracing are the best way they can do that.
It may be a problem, then, that several provinces are finding it difficult to pull off effective testing and tracing.
Alberta recently introduced new testing criteria in an attempt to prioritize the most important potential cases. Testing capacity in Manitoba is low enough that some Winnipeggers have reported waiting in line for four hours or more, and others have driven an hour outside the city to get tested.
The worst situation of all may well be in Ontario, where the testing backlog routinely numbers in the tens of thousands, leaving some unable to get results for up to a week.
That creates another problem. The longer it takes for a positive test result to be known, the less effective contact tracing is.
Toronto Public Health, the province’s largest public health unit, announced Friday that it is now only performing contact tracing for the highest-risk scenarios – a far cry from the testing of all cases that helped some countries in other parts of the world beat back the virus.
“Ontario has lost control of COVID. I say that because we’re no longer able to do contact tracing. We’re no longer able to do testing in a reasonable period of time,” Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, said Sunday on CTV News Channel.
Oughton said he would not be surprised if other jurisdictions followed Toronto’s lead in the near future, reducing their contact-tracing efforts because there are too many cases coming in for them to stay on top of each one.
THE VIRUS IS SPREADING INTO NEW AREAS
The northern half of Manitoba is an isolated place.
Many communities are an hour’s drive, or more, from their closest neighbours. Most of the rest are even less accessible than that, because they don’t have all-season roads. Anyone wanting to enter or leave the community has limited options: an ice road if the water has frozen over, a boat or canoe if it hasn’t, or shelling out for airfare.
In other words, northern Manitoba is a very difficult place for a virus to thrive.
There were three cases of COVID-19 detected in Manitoba’s northern health region in a nine-day span early in the pandemic. Then, for more than four months, there was nothing. Not a single case. The province even put a travel ban in place, restricting non-essential travel from Winnipeg and other southern communities because of fears visitors could reintroduce the virus.
All was going well. Then came the past week.
There have been 13 cases of COVID-19 in northern Manitoba since Sept. 27. Seven of them have been traced to one family in York Factory First Nation. There is an eighth case in York Factory and three other Indigenous communities have also reported active cases.
This is the most extreme example of a new phenomenon: COVID-19 showing up in remote parts of Canada where it had not been a problem before.
Although the initial case is believed to have stemmed from an exposure outside Nunavut, the latest outbreak suggests that the virus has finally made its way to Canada’s most isolated territory.
THE GLOBAL PICTURE
Nunavut was able to avoid COVID-19 until recently by almost completely sealing itself off from the rest of the world.
Canada hasn’t done that, and that leaves it susceptible to COVID-19 arriving from abroad.
Despite a pervasive belief that the border is closed, there are a wide variety of exemptions that allow essential workers, Canadian citizens and permanent residents and their families, international students and others into the country.
More than 49,000 travellers entered Canada by air during the week of Sept. 21 to 27, according to the Canada Border Service Agency, including more than 16,000 passengers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents. Another 187,500 entries were recorded at the U.S. land border.
This is particularly concerning because Canada is not the only country grappling with renewed COVID-19 activity – and some nations are reporting numbers that dwarf what’s happening here. France and Poland both reported record high daily case counts on Saturday, while Italy and Germany hit their highest marks since April.
To this point, arrivals from abroad have not been a major driver of COVID-19 spread in Canada. Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said Friday that between two and three per cent of cases have been tied to international travel.
WINTER IS COMING
Evidence is mounting that it is easier for COVID-19 to spread indoors – especially in places where people are eating or loudly talking without wearing masks and without distancing properly.
That could be a problem as fall-like weather sets in across Canada, with colder temperatures making the idea of spending substantial time outside less appealing.
Warnings of a “long winter” have led to a surge in demand for patio heaters and other outdoor equipment, but many Canadians may find it difficult to brave the elements more than they normally would.
Pair that with indications that “pandemic fatigue” is setting in, and some experts are concerned that some Canadians may adopt risky behaviours this winter – potentially easing the path of COVID-19.
“I am concerned that there’s going to be more mingling than there should be,” Furness said. He would like to see hard-hit regions shut all bars, restaurants and gyms until the virus is better brought under control.
Dr. Brian Conway, president and medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, said Saturday on CTV News Channel, that Canadians need to brace themselves for extended isolation, even if a full lockdown never happens.
“Many people are not accepting that the old normal is gone for a long time, that we have to embrace a new normal,” he said.
“We need to get messaging out there so that people feel good about making the right decision, and the numbers go down.”
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.
The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.
“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”
The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.
“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”
The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.
“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.
Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.
Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.
It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.
On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.
“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”
A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.
If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.
The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.
As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.
Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.
“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.
The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.
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Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.
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Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.
Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua is set to make his season debut Thursday after missing time for cancer treatment.
Head coach Rick Tocchet says Joshua will slot into the lineup Thursday when Vancouver (8-3-3) hosts the New York Islanders.
The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., was diagnosed with testicular cancer this summer and underwent surgery in early September.
He spoke earlier this month about his recovery, saying it had been “very hard to go through” and that he was thankful for support from his friends, family, teammates and fans.
“That was a scary time but I am very thankful and just happy to be in this position still and be able to go out there and play,,” Joshua said following Thursday’s morning skate.
The cancer diagnosis followed a career season where Joshua contributed 18 goals and 14 assists across 63 regular-season games, then added four goals and four assists in the playoffs.
Now, he’s ready to focus on contributing again.
“I expect to be good, I don’t expect a grace period. I’ve been putting the work in so I expect to come out there and make an impact as soon as possible,” he said.
“I don’t know if it’s going to be perfect right from the get-go, but it’s about putting your best foot forward and working your way to a point of perfection.”
The six-foot-three, 206-pound Joshua signed a four-year, US$13-million contract extension at the end of June.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 14, 2024.
NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.
“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”
Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.
He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.
The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.
A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.
With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”
It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.
Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.
He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.
HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
