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Shares in sober mood, oil prices climb again

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Share markets were in a sober mood on Monday as fighting in Ukraine raged on with no sign of stopping, leaving investors clutching at hopes for an eventual peace deal, while oil prices climbed anew as supplies remained tight.

Turkey’s foreign minister did say on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine were nearing agreement on “critical” issues and he was hopeful for a ceasefire.

Investors were also anxiously waiting to see if Russia would meet more interest repayments this week. It must pay $615 million in coupons this month while on April 4, a $2 billion bond comes due.

Most share markets rallied last week in anticipation of an eventual peace deal on Ukraine, but it could take actual progress to justify further gains.

President Joe Biden will meet NATO allies on Thursday and visit Poland on Friday.

BofA’s global fund manager survey had a bearish tinge with cash levels the highest since April 2020 and global growth expectations the lowest since the financial crisis of 2008.

Long oil and commodities were the most crowded trade, and vulnerable to a pullback.

Trade was sluggish with Japan on holiday, leaving S&P 500 stock futures down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures 0.4%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.3% and FTSE futures held steady.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei was shut, but futures traded around 150 points above the cash close.

Chinese blue chips lost 0.1%, with investors waiting on further details of possible stimulus from Beijing.

Bond markets were braced for more hawkish language from the Federal Reserve with Chair Jerome Powell speaking on Monday, and at least half a dozen other members through the week.

Policy makers have flagged a string of hikes ahead to take the funds rate to anywhere from 1.75% to 3.0% by year end. The market implies a 50-50 chance of a half point hike in May and an even greater chance by June.

“In balancing the near-term upside risks to inflation with the downside risks to growth, central banks are sending a clear and strong signal that policy is on a path to normalise,” said JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman.

“However, a sustained cut-off of Russian energy supply would push inflation substantially higher, magnifying an already severe squeeze on U.S. consumer purchasing power,” he warned, adding it would likely throw the Euro area into recession.

“Under this scenario, policy normalisation would come to a halt across the world.”

CURVES FLATTENED

The market seems aware of the risks to growth given the marked flattening of the Treasury yield curve of recent weeks. The spread between two- and 10-year yields has shrunk to just 21 basis points, the smallest since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.

Higher Treasury yields have helped lift the U.S. dollar on the yen, where the Bank of Japan remains committed to keeping yields near zero. The dollar was up near its highest since early 2016 at 119.18 yen, having climbed 1.6% last week.

The dollar had less luck elsewhere, in part because history shows the currency tends to decline once the Fed has begun a tightening campaign.

The euro was holding at $1.1045 on Monday, after bouncing 1.3% last week. The dollar index stood at 98.270, off its recent peak at 99.415.

Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at CBA, noted flash manufacturing (PMI) surveys from Europe would be a hurdle for the euro this week.

“Europe is most exposed to lower supply from, and higher prices for, gas and agricultural imports from Russia and Ukraine,” he said. “A fall in the Eurozone PMI into contractionary territory could push EUR/USD back closer to its war low of $1.0806 again.”

In commodity markets, gold has failed to get much of a lift from safe-haven flows or inflation concerns, losing more than 3% last week. It was last up 0.3% at $1,927 an ounce. [GOL/]

Oil prices also lost ground last week, but were pushing higher on Monday as there was no easy replacement for Russian barrels in a tight market. [O/R]

Brent was quoted $3.32 higher at $111.25, while U.S. crude rose $3.36 to $108.06 a barrel.

 

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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