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Shooting blanks: Why so many Canadian defence policies fail to launch – CBC.ca

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With absolutely no exceptions, every defence policy presented by the Canadian government over the past five decades has presented a vision of the world beyond our borders going to hell in a handbasket.

The wars may be different, the adversaries might change, threats might have evolved — but the language almost always stays the same.

And almost without exception, none of those defence policies ever lived up to their hype, or to the expectations and political spin that accompanied them.

The ink wasn’t even dry on some defence policies before they were being dismissed by people in government as unaffordable or overtaken by world events. Others died a quiet, curious death of benign neglect.

But the differences between the security and defence snapshot presented on Monday and those that came before it could not be more stark.

People take shelter inside a metro station during a Russian missile strike in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 21, 2024. (Alina Smutko/Reuters)

There’s a shooting war in Europe — allies are openly talking about being in a “prewar” period. Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic is at, or exceeding, Cold War levels. Canada’s own top military commander is calling for the defence industry to be put on a “war footing.” And many of the nuclear treaties that underpinned security during the standoff with the former Soviet Union have been dropped in the shredder.

When you look back at the past five decades, if ever there was a time to convince Canadians that the world is a nasty place and is likely to get worse, it’s now.

Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre says the state of the world demands that Canada approach defence policy with a sense of urgency. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of the defence staff, acknowledged the world and Canada are “in a fundamentally different situation now” than they were when previous policy reviews were released.

For that reason, he’s arguing for a sense of urgency.

“What keeps me up at night — with the state of the world and what we need to do — is something I’ve been calling harmful bureaucracy,” Eyre said in an interview late Friday with CBC News.

“Because that will inhibit our ability to implement this policy. It will slow us down. It’ll be the molasses that does not allow us to proceed apace.”

The new policy does contain the expected warnings about how Russia’s war in Ukraine represents a threat to the stability of the post-Second World War international order. China was called out for having an eye on the Canadian Arctic, but in language that’s more attuned to the tightrope Canada has tried to walk following the release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. The strategy promises to manage the relationship with Beijing through “frank, open and respectful dialogue.” 

The policy document also refers to how technology is reshaping conflict in both stark and subtle ways. 

But the policy is also a political document, and its unstated intention may have been to prop up the Liberal government in the face of anxious allies and an increasingly uneasy electorate.

It also presents climate change as an important driver of future security threats through threats like natural disasters and forced migration.

Cpl. Nicolaus Lalopoulos, a door gunner with 408 Tactical Helicopter Squadron, mans a Browning M2 .50 Caliber heavy machine gun on a CH-146 Griffon training flight during a training exercise at Fort Wainwright, Alaska on March 8, 2022. (Submitted by Cpl. Angela Gore, Canadian Armed Forces)

Steve Saideman, a political scientist who holds the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University, said he believes the emphasis on climate change and the Arctic is meant to sell the defence strategy to a skeptical public and a Parliament that may be reluctant to appropriate billions of dollars.

It also has the side benefit of undercutting a Conservative opposition which, in a previous iteration, made Arctic security an article of faith.

Such a focus does somewhat placate allies who recognize Canada’s limited ambitions and even more limited  capabilities, and want the country to pick something it can do and do it well.

To see how limited those ambitions are, all you have to do is look back at some of the commitments in previous defence policies.

The ‘decade of darkness’

Even as western nations began cashing their so-called “peace dividends” at the end of the Cold War, a previous Liberal government’s 1994 defence white paper (one of the few without a snappy title) issued a blunt warning:

“The world is neither more peaceful nor more stable than in the past. Canada’s defence policy must reflect the world as it is rather than the world as we would like it to be.”

The irony is that, in spite of the document’s ominous tone, the government of Prime Minister Jean Chretien went on to cut more than $2 billion from the defence budget between 1994 and 1998 (taking it from $12 billion annually to $10 billion). The era was infamously dubbed “the decade of darkness” by a former chief of the defence staff, retired general Rick Hillier.

Still, that defence policy committed to keeping two warships, one battle group of soldiers, an additional infantry battalion group, a squadron of fighter aircraft, a flight of tactical transport aircraft and a headquarters contingent ready to deploy on multinational operations, either United Nations or NATO.

That would have been a commitment three decades ago of 4,000 military members.

A Canadian soldier carries spent light anti-tank weapons after the conclusion of Exercise Steele Crescendo outside Riga, Latvia in 2020. (NATO)

Today, Canada is struggling to bulk up to a brigade of 2,200 soldiers as part of the NATO mission in Latvia. It periodically deploys frigates and minesweepers but has taken a step back from fighter jets.

All of that speaks to the need to replace decades-old jets and warships, including submarines.

The new policy talks about exploring options to acquire replacements for the second-hand Victoria-class submarines. Despite already having a proposal from the navy for eight to 12 conventional boats, the matter requires further study, Eyre said.

At the media availability that announced the policy, both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Defence Minister Bill Blair made the submarine program sound like a certainty. They also suggested the government would consider acquiring a nuclear-powered boat — a nod to Canada’s exclusion from the AUKUS security arrangement involving the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.

WATCH: Federal government’s spending commitments won’t meet NATO target   

Canada pledges billions in new defence spending — not enough to reach NATO benchmark

5 days ago

Duration 15:04

The Liberal government announced a new defence policy update that is projected to bring Canadian defence spending to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2029 — still short of its NATO commitment to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence. Power & Politics speaks to Defence Minister Bill Blair.

A previous defence policy — Challenge and Commitment, released by the Conservative government of Brian Mulroney — proposed the purchase of nuclear-powered submarines to patrol under the ice of Canada’s Arctic.

In words that wouldn’t be out of place in the latest defence policy, the 1987 policy review “confirmed that [Canada is] not able to meet [military] commitments fully and effectively. After decades of neglect, there is indeed a significant commitment-capability.”

A little more than three years later, the Cold War was over and Mulroney’s government was in deficit-cutting mode. The nuclear submarine proposal was the first thing to go.

Promise now, pay later

The fact that much of the funding in the new defence policy is backloaded to future years continues, in some respects, a tradition of previous Canadian governments.

In 1994, the federal Liberals promised to begin the process of replacing the navy’s supply ships (a project still underway today). The Conservatives of 2008 said the Armed Forces would reach its assigned strength in 2028.  

If there is a constant feature of five decades of these defence policies, it’s their ad hoc, political nature.

“In a Canadian context, this is like a potentially generationally significant commitment of funding towards the military, if it can actually get out the door and spent,” said Dave Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, who noted the last Liberal defence policy had a number of pretty promising initiatives. 

“But those didn’t seem to have a huge impact so far. So I think [there are] a lot of good ideas here [but] the real crux will be what can actually be implemented and done with them.”

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Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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