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Short sales on the TSX: What bearish investors are betting against

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Except for a few rallies along the way, short sellers on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) have been in full retreat in recent months – as highlighted by the short position in the iShares S&P/TSX 60 exchange-traded fund (ETF).

On Nov. 30, it stood at 70 million units, down considerably from 120 million units in July.

Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC)

Bearish bets at the sector level

The three most shorted sectors as of Nov. 30 were preferred shares, energy companies and banks, as represented, respectively, by the BMO Laddered Preferred Shares, iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy and BMO Equal Weight Banks ETFs.

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Some sectors have managed to show increases in short interest since Aug. 31. The biggest were: BMO MSCI Emerging Markets (1,893.1 per cent), iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials (113.0 per cent) and iShares Canadian Corporate Bond (85.4 per cent).

The 10 most short sectors on the TSX (as of Nov. 30).

ETF # of units short as of Nov. 30 # of units short as of Aug. 31 % change from Aug. 31 % of units short as of Nov. 30
BMO Laddered Preferred Shares ZPR-T 11,705,917.00 12,810,920 -8.6% 5.5%
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy XEG-T 9,120,630.00 9,173,571 -0.6% 8.0%
BMO Equal Weight Banks ZEB-T 4,558,415.00 4,875,785 -6.5% 9.5%
iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT XRE-T 4,523,625.00 3,213,590 40.8% 6.5%
Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences HMMJ-T 1,249,040.00 1,425,587 -12.4% 2.3%
iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold XGD-T 890,653.00 833,063 6.9% 1.4%
iShares Canadian Corporate Bond XCB-T 846,084.00 456,429 85.4% 1.1%
iShares Core MSCI EAFE XEF-T 796,969.00 976,579 -18.4% 0.6%
BMO MSCI Emerging Markets ZEM-T 768,769.00 38,572 1893.1% 0.8%
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials XFN-T 548,867.00 257,671 113.0% 2.0%

Source: IIROC

Consultation paper on activist short sellers

Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), which represents provincial securities regulators, released a consultation paper on activist short sellers on Dec. 3. The consultation paper reports that activist short sellers have launched 113 campaigns against 73 Canadian companies since 2010.

Campaigns by activist short sellers against Canadian companies past 10 years

CSA Consultation Paper 25-403: Activist Short Selling

As for the charge that activist short sellers “distort and short”, the CSA paper states that a U.S. study “found that separate investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice reached similar conclusions as activist short sellers in 90% of the [U.S.] campaigns.” Sources are cited on other issues, including my Globe and Mail article, “Regulations to rein in short-sellers must not undercut activists’ positive effects”

Non-reporting of foreign short sales

A report by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada publishes the number of shares short for public Canadian companies twice a month. However, it does not include short sales of Canadian stocks trading in other countries. This omission substantially understates short selling activity and bearish sentiment, according to databases developed by S3 Partners.

They show that close to 900 Canadian firms have foreign short sales, mostly in the U.S. Not only are inter-listed companies shorted in other countries but so are Canadian companies listed exclusively in foreign jurisdictions. Furthermore, many companies listed solely in Canada are shorted in foreign over-the-counter markets. The S3 Research data also reveal that well over a third of large-cap Canadian companies have more than 50 per cent of their short sales outside of Canada; the value is US$12.5-billion for the top 30 companies.

Top 30 companies with foreign short interest exceeding 50% of total

Company U.S. ticker Short interest outside Canada (in U.S. millions) Foreign short sales as % of total Location of foreign exchange
Shopify Inc. SHOP-N $1,637.20 89.7% U.S.
Barrick Gold Corp. GOLD-N $1,169.40 86.2% U.S. & U.K.
Canopy Growth Corp. CGC-N $1,031.60 77.2% U.S.
Brookfield Asset Mgt. BAM-N $842.00 73.6% U.S.
Lululemon Athletica LULU-Q $769.90 100.0% U.S.
Restaurant Brands Intl. QSR-N $614.90 81.5% U.S.
Canadian Tire Corp. CDNAF $466.10 69.2% U.S.
Aurora Cannabis Inc. ACB-N $480.10 87.2% U.S.
First Majestic Silver Corp. AG-N $487.20 92.2% U.S.
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. KL-N $339.40 91.2% U.S. & U.K.
Nutrien Ltd. NTR-N $253.20 56.7% U.S.
Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV-N $286.70 67.1% U.S.
Cronos Group CRON-Q $351.10 86.6% U.S.
Ballard Power Systems BLDP-Q $364.80 93.0% U.S.
Imperial Oil Ltd. IMO-N $243.10 70.0% U.S.
Ovintiv Inc. OVV-N $322.10 94.9% U.S.
Canada Goose Holdings. GOOS-N $299.90 90.5% U.S.
Lundin Mining Corp. LUNMF $197.50 79.5% U.S. & Sweden
Open Text Corp. OTEX-Q $238.60 78.0% U.S.
Lightspeed Inc. LSPD-N $180.50 59.0% U.S.
Aphria Inc. APHA-Q $241.00 81.3% U.S.
Blackberry Ltd. BB-N $203.80 72.9% U.S.
Teck Resources Ltd. B TECK-N $181.30 66.1% U.S.
Tilray Inc. TLRY-Q $256.30 100.0% U.S.
GFL Environmental Inc. GFL-N $179.00 82.6% U.S.
Canadian Solar Inc CSIQ-Q $208.00 100.0% U.S.
Gildan Activewear. GIL-N $135.30 68.5% U.S.
Cameco Corp. CCJ-N $148.30 78.9% U.S.
First Quantum Minerals FM-N $107.50 57.3% U.S.
SNC-Lavalin Group SNCAF $135.90 78.4% U.S.
Total $12,371.40

Source: S3 Partners

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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