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Singapore Dollar Looks Vulnerable Even as Economy Opens Up – BNNBloomberg.ca

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(Bloomberg) — Singapore’s currency looks set to remain under pressure as global headwinds outweigh the benefits of an easing in the nationwide lockdown.

The U.S. dollar-Singapore dollar pair has failed to break below technical support at its one-month low, suggesting its next move could well be higher. Data this week is expected to show the nation’s economy contracted 1.8% y/y in the first quarter, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The Southeast Asian currency has been pressured by the negative impact of the coronavirus on the Singaporean economy and is down over 5% against the greenback so far this year. The government is projecting gross domestic product will shrink 1%-4% in 2020.

“We see significant challenges ahead for the Singapore dollar, given Singapore is one of the most open economies in the region,” said Standard Chartered Plc. strategist Divya Devesh. “Given the subdued outlook for global growth and global trade, and a sharp decline in global manufacturing PMI’s, we expect the recent improvement in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports to reverse course.”

The nation’s exports unexpectedly climbed for a second straight month in April, mainly due to a jump in pharmaceuticals, according to data released on May 18. The government said the shipments tend to be volatile and fluctuate across months.

Also keeping the local dollar under pressure is the willingness signaled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore to let the currency weaken at its March 30 policy decision, in a bid to support the trade-reliant economy. The MAS doesn’t set rates, but instead manages the currency against major trading partners as a policy tool.

The Singapore dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate — the focus of the MAS — began May at a similar level to where it was at the time of the March policy decision, suggesting there is still room for the currency to weaken further.

The U.S. dollar-Singapore dollar pair traded at 1.4222 on Friday at 5:20 p.m. local time, more than 1% above its April 30 low of 1.4070. Its failure to breach this support leaves the door open for a grind higher toward technical resistance at the April 6 high of 1.4417.

Still, pressure on the currency should be alleviated somewhat as the domestic economy starts to pick up with Singapore allowing more businesses to reopen on June 2. That will increase the active proportion of the economy to three-quarters — after a nationwide lockdown cut transmission of the coronavirus among citizens and permanent residents.

Below are the key Asian economic data and events due this week:

  • Monday, May 25: No major economic releases
  • Tuesday, May 26: Singapore industrial production, CPI and 1Q GDP, New Zealand trade balance, Japan all industry activity index, South Korea consumer confidence
  • Wednesday, May 27: Australia 1Q construction work done, RBNZ’s financial stability report and press conference, China industrial profits, South Korea manufacturing/non-manufacturing business surveys
  • Thursday, May 28: Australia 1Q private capex, New Zealand business confidence, Bank of Korea rate decision
  • Friday, May 29: India 1Q GDP, Australia private sector credit, New Zealand consumer confidence, Japan retail sales, industrial production, jobless rate, consumer confidence and Tokyo CPI, South Korea industrial production, Thailand trade balance and BoP current account balance

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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