The rise of Sinn Féin (and the broader Left in Irish politics) is the result of three clear, interlinking economic factors. These are a growth model that has not benefited everyone, a worsening housing crisis that has created intra-generational and social class conflict, and a decade of austerity that has led to a decline in public services and public infrastructure.
This is the third election since the great financial crash in 2008. It is the first time in Irish history that the governing centre-right parties of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have received less than 50% of the first preference vote.
In the decade before the crisis, Ireland was governed by Fianna Fail and experienced a massive house price bubble that burst spectacularly during the financial crisis. This property bubble was underpinned by loose and reckless bank lending, and years of Fianna Fail income tax cuts.
When the property bubble burst, house prices fell significantly and the Irish state was left with a major recession. This meant cleaning up the balance sheet of the banks, increasing income taxes and cutting public spending.
In 2011, which was the first election following the crisis, the electorate massively punished Fianna Fail. They rewarded the opposition, Fine Gael and the Labour party. Between them, Fine Gael and Labour had one of the largest governing majorities in the history of the state. But while the colour of government changed, the austerity policies remained the same.
People were angry at the way the government handled the financial crisis. Julien Behal/PA Archive/PA Images
But they hoarded these assets until prices started to rise again. House prices increased rapidly from 2014 onwards, quickly pricing a new generation out of housing. Those who could afford to buy new homes were pushed further and further away from the city, with poor public transport links, creating car dependence and long traffic congested commutes.
Unequal growth
During this same period, Ireland experienced massive amounts of inward investment from big tech multinationals. The tech sector began to boom. This enabled the Fine Gael/Labour government to continue with its austerity measures. Tax receipts from higher income earners and the corporate sector rose.
This boom in foreign investment and multinational exports provided the conditions for an economic recovery, which really began to take off from 2014. But this headline recovery was only really felt in the high-tech multinational sectors of the economy. Most of the workforce did not experience it.
In the 2016 election, the electorate massively punished the Fine Gael/Labour government. Labour went from 33 to seven seats. Fine Gael went from 76 to 50. Fianna Fail won 44 seats, while Sinn Féin won 23. It was an election that nobody really won. The outcome was an Fine Gael-led government with some independents propped up by a confidence-and-supply arrangement with Fianna Fail. For most of the electorate, it was perceived as an Fine Gael government with a quasi-coalition with Fianna Fail.
From 2016 onwards, under the stewardship of the centre-right Fine Gael government led by Leo Varadkar, the economy continued to grow. But it was also becoming obvious that a large part of Irish growth was a result of being a tax haven. Irish GDP is €324 billion. But modified gross national income is €197 billion. This represents the real size of national income, and it is €124 billion smaller than GDP.
Equally, the stock of foreign direct investment in Ireland is around €850 billion but IMF research shows that nearly three-quarters of this is phantom. It is large multinationals shifting capital assets around their various subsidiaries to reduce their tax obligations.
All of this has made the economy look better than it actually is.
Housing and cost of living
There has been significant employment growth in Ireland, putting pressure on housing and public services. The higher-income, high-tech jobs are increasingly located in the cities of Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway. It is estimated that there are around 50,000 jobs associated with the tech sector, of which 75% are located in Dublin.
This growth of higher-income jobs in a context of constrained supply of housing has led to skyrocketing rents and unaffordable houses. The cost of living has increased significantly, particularly housing, childcare, insurance, healthcare and education, making Dublin one of the most expensive cities to live and raise a family in Europe.
The 2020 election was a vote for change. It was a vote against Fianna Fail/Fine Gael and the centre-right policy consensus that has governed Irish politics for decades.
Economically secure voters concerned with quality of life issues increasingly turned to the Green Party. But Sinn Féin generated a powerful narrative that it is the party that represents working people against the privileged. Its manifesto committed to taxing big tech, banks and the rich. It also promised to invest heavily in public services and engage in a mass public house building programme.
The economic feasibility of these promises is important but besides the point. It was a narrative that resonated with a large chunk of the population. Given the legacy effect of austerity, and the inequality generating effects of Ireland’s growth model, the rise of Sinn Féin can be understood as the dog that finally barked.
New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province. Liberal Leader Susan Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. She promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028. (Oct. 22, 2024)
Susan Holt has made history in New Brunswick by becoming the first woman to serve as the leader of the province’s Liberal Party, a significant milestone in the province’s political landscape. Holt’s leadership victory signals a new era of representation, gender equality, and change in the region, which has long been dominated by male politicians.
Holt’s journey to the top has been one of perseverance and dedication. Before entering politics, she built a distinguished career in the private sector, where she held numerous leadership positions. Her experience in business development and public policy has equipped her with the skills needed to navigate the complex world of politics.
In a province where women have historically been underrepresented in politics, Holt’s election represents a watershed moment. Women’s involvement in leadership roles has been steadily increasing nationwide, but New Brunswick, like many parts of Canada, has seen slower progress in achieving gender parity. Holt’s rise to the top of the Liberal Party not only shatters a glass ceiling but also serves as an inspiration for future generations of women aiming for political leadership.
As the leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Party, Holt has laid out a vision of inclusivity and progress. Her policies focus on economic development, healthcare reform, environmental sustainability, and addressing social issues that have plagued the province. She has also emphasized the importance of transparent governance and creating opportunities for underrepresented communities, making her platform both modern and forward-thinking.
Holt’s leadership arrives at a time when many voters are calling for change, especially in the face of challenges like economic uncertainty and the need for healthcare improvements. She aims to bring fresh ideas to tackle these issues while ensuring that all citizens, regardless of their background, have a voice in government decisions.
Susan Holt joins the ranks of other trailblazing women across Canada who have led provincial parties and governments. Women like former Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne have paved the way, and now Holt is contributing to this growing legacy of female political leadership in Canada.
Her achievement highlights not only the growing number of women entering politics but also the demand for leaders who can bring diverse perspectives to the table. In a field often dominated by entrenched traditions, Holt’s election is a step toward a more inclusive and representative political landscape in New Brunswick.
Holt’s leadership signals a broader shift in Canadian politics, where more women and diverse voices are gaining prominence. For young women across the country, her rise serves as a powerful reminder that leadership roles are within reach, even in traditionally male-dominated spheres.
With her election, Susan Holt has proven that perseverance, skill, and a vision for change can break even the toughest barriers. Her leadership will not only reshape New Brunswick’s political future but also inspire others across Canada to pursue leadership positions and continue to challenge the status quo.
NDP Leader Carla Beck has two planned campaign events today, starting the day with an availability in Moose Jaw and then later this evening attending an event in the capital with the Regina Medical Staff Association.
Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe, meanwhile, will speak in Prince Albert at the start of Voting Week in the province.
Saskatchewan residents can vote for five days starting today in the lead-up to next week’s provincial election, although polls won’t be open Sunday.
The NDP and the Saskatchewan Party are urging voters to cast their ballots early.
Voters can find their polling stations on their information cards or by visiting the Elections Saskatchewan website.
Chief electoral officer Michael Boda says there are about 810,000 registered voters in Saskatchewan.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
