The rise of Sinn Féin (and the broader Left in Irish politics) is the result of three clear, interlinking economic factors. These are a growth model that has not benefited everyone, a worsening housing crisis that has created intra-generational and social class conflict, and a decade of austerity that has led to a decline in public services and public infrastructure.
This is the third election since the great financial crash in 2008. It is the first time in Irish history that the governing centre-right parties of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have received less than 50% of the first preference vote.
In the decade before the crisis, Ireland was governed by Fianna Fail and experienced a massive house price bubble that burst spectacularly during the financial crisis. This property bubble was underpinned by loose and reckless bank lending, and years of Fianna Fail income tax cuts.
When the property bubble burst, house prices fell significantly and the Irish state was left with a major recession. This meant cleaning up the balance sheet of the banks, increasing income taxes and cutting public spending.
In 2011, which was the first election following the crisis, the electorate massively punished Fianna Fail. They rewarded the opposition, Fine Gael and the Labour party. Between them, Fine Gael and Labour had one of the largest governing majorities in the history of the state. But while the colour of government changed, the austerity policies remained the same.
People were angry at the way the government handled the financial crisis. Julien Behal/PA Archive/PA Images
But they hoarded these assets until prices started to rise again. House prices increased rapidly from 2014 onwards, quickly pricing a new generation out of housing. Those who could afford to buy new homes were pushed further and further away from the city, with poor public transport links, creating car dependence and long traffic congested commutes.
Unequal growth
During this same period, Ireland experienced massive amounts of inward investment from big tech multinationals. The tech sector began to boom. This enabled the Fine Gael/Labour government to continue with its austerity measures. Tax receipts from higher income earners and the corporate sector rose.
This boom in foreign investment and multinational exports provided the conditions for an economic recovery, which really began to take off from 2014. But this headline recovery was only really felt in the high-tech multinational sectors of the economy. Most of the workforce did not experience it.
In the 2016 election, the electorate massively punished the Fine Gael/Labour government. Labour went from 33 to seven seats. Fine Gael went from 76 to 50. Fianna Fail won 44 seats, while Sinn Féin won 23. It was an election that nobody really won. The outcome was an Fine Gael-led government with some independents propped up by a confidence-and-supply arrangement with Fianna Fail. For most of the electorate, it was perceived as an Fine Gael government with a quasi-coalition with Fianna Fail.
From 2016 onwards, under the stewardship of the centre-right Fine Gael government led by Leo Varadkar, the economy continued to grow. But it was also becoming obvious that a large part of Irish growth was a result of being a tax haven. Irish GDP is €324 billion. But modified gross national income is €197 billion. This represents the real size of national income, and it is €124 billion smaller than GDP.
Equally, the stock of foreign direct investment in Ireland is around €850 billion but IMF research shows that nearly three-quarters of this is phantom. It is large multinationals shifting capital assets around their various subsidiaries to reduce their tax obligations.
All of this has made the economy look better than it actually is.
Housing and cost of living
There has been significant employment growth in Ireland, putting pressure on housing and public services. The higher-income, high-tech jobs are increasingly located in the cities of Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway. It is estimated that there are around 50,000 jobs associated with the tech sector, of which 75% are located in Dublin.
This growth of higher-income jobs in a context of constrained supply of housing has led to skyrocketing rents and unaffordable houses. The cost of living has increased significantly, particularly housing, childcare, insurance, healthcare and education, making Dublin one of the most expensive cities to live and raise a family in Europe.
The 2020 election was a vote for change. It was a vote against Fianna Fail/Fine Gael and the centre-right policy consensus that has governed Irish politics for decades.
Economically secure voters concerned with quality of life issues increasingly turned to the Green Party. But Sinn Féin generated a powerful narrative that it is the party that represents working people against the privileged. Its manifesto committed to taxing big tech, banks and the rich. It also promised to invest heavily in public services and engage in a mass public house building programme.
The economic feasibility of these promises is important but besides the point. It was a narrative that resonated with a large chunk of the population. Given the legacy effect of austerity, and the inequality generating effects of Ireland’s growth model, the rise of Sinn Féin can be understood as the dog that finally barked.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
