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Slow Recovery Ahead for India's Economy as Animal Spirits Stir – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Business activity in India picked up slightly in July as a gradual improvement in services and exports showed the economy possibly moved past its worst-showing in the previous quarter.

Five of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News gained last month, while two were unchanged and one deteriorated. That helped move the needle on a dial measuring so-called animal spirits to the right after remaining stuck at a lower speed for two months.

The pickup in the gauge, which uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month readings, holds out hope for a gradual recovery in the economy. The world’s biggest lockdown to contain the coronavirus pandemic brought activity to a virtual halt last quarter, with data due Aug. 31. likely to show gross domestic product declined 19.2% from a year ago.

Any rebound will be slow though, with economists in a Bloomberg survey predicting a milder contraction of 5.3% in the quarter to September.

Business Activity

Services activity recorded a marginal improvement in July with the main index for the sector standing at 34.2. While a reading under 50 indicates contraction in activity, last month’s index was better than June’s 33.7 and continues the recovery from the record low of 5.4 in April.

Manufacturing also continued to contract, with the purchasing managers index dipping to 46.0 from 47.2 in June, as domestic orders and output took a hit. As a result, the Markit India Composite PMI for July slipped to 37.2 from 37.8 a month earlier.

Exports

While exports fell 10.2% in July from a year ago, shipments gained 7.9% from a month earlier. Non-oil exports have almost recovered to last year’s levels, while farm shipments expanded at a robust pace of 20%, according to economists at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Overseas demand for engineering goods, drugs and pharmaceuticals along with iron ore shipments also picked up.

Consumer Activity

Consumers — the bedrock of the economy — remained glum with many grappling with joblessness and falling wages. A survey by the central bank showed that their confidence slumped to a record low in July, although households were cautiously optimistic about the coming year.

Car sales, another indicator of consumer demand, were down 12% in July from a year ago, having dropped nearly 50% in June, data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed.

Bank credit growth slowed to 5.5% year-on-year at the end of July from 6.2% in June and around 12% a year ago, while outstanding bank credit picked-up slightly to 102.7 trillion rupees in July. Liquidity conditions tightened during the month, boding ill for borrowers.

Industrial Activity

The index of Industrial Production fell 16.6% in June from a year earlier, although the decline was shallower in May when it contracted 33.9%. Higher demand for drugs and pharmaceutical exports meant production across these sectors picked up, although other segments such as textiles and transport equipment along with mining activity remained sluggish.

Meanwhile, output at infrastructure industries shrank 15% in June from a year ago and was slightly better than the 21.98% decline in May. The sector, which makes up 40% of the industrial production index, had contracted by a record 37% in April. Both data are published with a one-month lag.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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