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Slumping retail sales could keep Bank of Canada interest rate on hold

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Retail sales flatlined in the second quarter while sales volume dropped 0.8 per cent, Statistics Canada said on Aug. 23, signs that economic activity is weakening as the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes take a deeper hold.

Sales increased 0.1 per cent  to $65.9 million in June, led by spending at auto and parts dealers, which grew 2.5 per cent. Excluding those sales and those at gas stations, core retail sales decreased 0.9 per cent in June and 0.2 per cent in volume terms.

“The latest data continues to point to weaker economic growth going forward, which is in line with what the Bank of Canada is expecting,” Desjardins economist Tiago Figueiredo said in a note. “As such, the latest data will probably leave central bankers comfortable keeping rates on hold for the remainder of the year.”Annualized retail sales in the second quarter dropped 0.1 per cent, a “notable step down” from the 2.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter, Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Maria Solovieva said in a note.

Policymakers will be scrutinizing retail data for signs of excess demand when they meet for the Sept. 6 interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates 10 times since early 2022 to bring supply and demand back in balance, but a resurgence in inflation in July has added a layer of uncertainty to the central bank’s next move.

Still, economists are calling for another pause in September as unemployment has increased by half a percentage point since April to 5.5 per cent in July, suggesting people’s spending power is dwindling, although Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of retail sales for July shows a 0.4 per cent increase.

In June, sales at gas stations rose 0.3 per cent due to higher prices, but dropped 1.4 per cent in volume terms. Food and beverage purchases also declined in the final month of the second quarter, dropping 0.9 per cent at grocery stores, while alcohol sales declined 2.8 per cent. General merchandise store sales dropped 1.4 per cent.E-commerce sales grew 1.1 per cent to $3.7 billion in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, accounting for 5.7 per cent of retail trade, compared to 5.6 per cent in May.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce tracks its own set of consumer spending data and July’s figures show that nominal spending was up more than two per cent on an annual basis.

Chief economist Stephen Tapp said the chamber’s numbers shows that strong population growth fuelled by immigration and higher inflation have kept the economy chugging along. But high-frequency data shows that consumer spending pulled back by mid-June and into July, as people began to feel squeezed by interest rates, which are now at five per cent.

Tapp advised businesses to keep an eye on costs as sales are likely to come under pressure if the economy continues to slow.

“The Bank of Canada should be patient, and cautious about additional rate hikes. Although underlying inflation pressures remain problematic, we don’t need more medicine,” he said in a statement. “We just need more time for the earlier medicine to work its way through the economy.”TD’s spending data shows Canadians remained resilient in July and the effects of federal grocery rebates could cause spending to rebound, said Solovieva.

“However, by demonstrating more resilience, (consumers will) pay the price of higher cost of future borrowing (and spending),” she said, adding that mortgages and their renewals will eat into discretionary budgets. “This means that retail sales could be the next in line to roll over.”

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com

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Suncor Energy pleads guilty to charges for 2019 injury on oil vessel off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Suncor Energy has been fined $90,000 after pleading guilty to two charges stemming from a worker injury in 2019 aboard its production vessel in an oilfield off the coast of Newfoundland.

In a news release Thursday, the province’s offshore oil regular said the company must also give $20,000 to the College of the North Atlantic’s health and safety management program.

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board says Calgary-based Suncor pleaded guilty on Sept. 5 for failing to ensure the safety of its employees and failing to ensure its employees wore a safety harness attached to a lifeline while inside a confined space.

The board says a worker fell 7.6 metres from a safety ladder while testing for hydrogen sulfide in a ballast tank on the floating production and storage vessel in the Terra Nova offshore oilfield.

An agreed statement of facts says two emergency response workers then went into the tank to tend to the fallen man, and they were not wearing gas masks.

Suncor Energy is the majority owner of the Terra Nova oilfield, and it reported net earnings of $1.57 billion in the second quarter of this year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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TD Bank announces new co-heads of U.S. commercial banking business

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Toronto-Dominion Bank has named new co-heads of its U.S. commercial banking business.

TD says Andy Bregenzer and Jill Gateman will jointly lead the operations.

The bank says the appointments follow the announcement earlier this year of Chris Giamo’s retirement.

Bregenzer will focus on leading all aspects of the regional commercial bank, including small business.

Gateman will lead TD’s national commercial banking effort in the U.S., including middle market, sponsor-backed finance and TD’s other specialty lending lines of business.

TD, which is working to resolve investigations into failures in its anti-money laundering program in the U.S., announced last week that chief executive Bharat Masrani would retire next year and be replaced by Raymond Chun.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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Payments tech company Lightspeed Commerce conducting strategic review of business

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MONTREAL – Lightspeed Commerce Inc. says it is conducting a review of its business and operations including talks relating to a range of potential strategic alternatives.

The Montreal-based payments technology company made the comments after reports concerning a potential transaction involving the company.

Lightspeed says it periodically undertakes a review of its business and operations with a view of realizing its full potential.

A strategic review is often seen by investors as a prelude to a sale by a company.

Lightspeed says its board of directors is committed to acting in the best interests of the company and its stakeholders.

Company founder Dax Dasilva returned to the role of chief executive officer earlier this year and has been working to return the company to profitability.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:LSPD)

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