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Slumping retail sales could keep Bank of Canada interest rate on hold

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Retail sales flatlined in the second quarter while sales volume dropped 0.8 per cent, Statistics Canada said on Aug. 23, signs that economic activity is weakening as the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes take a deeper hold.

Sales increased 0.1 per cent  to $65.9 million in June, led by spending at auto and parts dealers, which grew 2.5 per cent. Excluding those sales and those at gas stations, core retail sales decreased 0.9 per cent in June and 0.2 per cent in volume terms.

“The latest data continues to point to weaker economic growth going forward, which is in line with what the Bank of Canada is expecting,” Desjardins economist Tiago Figueiredo said in a note. “As such, the latest data will probably leave central bankers comfortable keeping rates on hold for the remainder of the year.”Annualized retail sales in the second quarter dropped 0.1 per cent, a “notable step down” from the 2.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter, Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Maria Solovieva said in a note.

Policymakers will be scrutinizing retail data for signs of excess demand when they meet for the Sept. 6 interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates 10 times since early 2022 to bring supply and demand back in balance, but a resurgence in inflation in July has added a layer of uncertainty to the central bank’s next move.

Still, economists are calling for another pause in September as unemployment has increased by half a percentage point since April to 5.5 per cent in July, suggesting people’s spending power is dwindling, although Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of retail sales for July shows a 0.4 per cent increase.

In June, sales at gas stations rose 0.3 per cent due to higher prices, but dropped 1.4 per cent in volume terms. Food and beverage purchases also declined in the final month of the second quarter, dropping 0.9 per cent at grocery stores, while alcohol sales declined 2.8 per cent. General merchandise store sales dropped 1.4 per cent.E-commerce sales grew 1.1 per cent to $3.7 billion in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, accounting for 5.7 per cent of retail trade, compared to 5.6 per cent in May.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce tracks its own set of consumer spending data and July’s figures show that nominal spending was up more than two per cent on an annual basis.

Chief economist Stephen Tapp said the chamber’s numbers shows that strong population growth fuelled by immigration and higher inflation have kept the economy chugging along. But high-frequency data shows that consumer spending pulled back by mid-June and into July, as people began to feel squeezed by interest rates, which are now at five per cent.

Tapp advised businesses to keep an eye on costs as sales are likely to come under pressure if the economy continues to slow.

“The Bank of Canada should be patient, and cautious about additional rate hikes. Although underlying inflation pressures remain problematic, we don’t need more medicine,” he said in a statement. “We just need more time for the earlier medicine to work its way through the economy.”TD’s spending data shows Canadians remained resilient in July and the effects of federal grocery rebates could cause spending to rebound, said Solovieva.

“However, by demonstrating more resilience, (consumers will) pay the price of higher cost of future borrowing (and spending),” she said, adding that mortgages and their renewals will eat into discretionary budgets. “This means that retail sales could be the next in line to roll over.”

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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