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Soaring Inflation and Crashing Home Sales: Coronavirus Devastates China’s Economy – CCN.com

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  • China’s real estate market is showing signs of collapse as the spread of coronavirus intensifies.
  • Inflation is surging as the disease disrupts businesses and supply chains.
  • A government researcher says the economic impact of coronavirus could shave as much as 1 percentage point from full-year GDP growth.

Coronavirus is wreaking havoc on the Chinese economy: Inflation surged in January, home sales plunged in the first week of February and GDP growth is expected to be 1 percentage point lower in 2020.

As the true cost of Beijing’s coronavirus cover-up adds up, the Communist Party is quietly ‘removing’ senior officials over their mishandling of the epidemic.

Home Sales Plunge

China’s housing market experienced a dramatic drop in the first week of September. Shenzhen apartment sales were among the hardest hit. | Image: REUTERS/Bobby Yip

The first week of February was particularly grim for Chinese real estate. New apartment sales dropped a staggering 90% from the same period a year ago, according to data on 36 cities collected by China Merchants Securities Co.

The resale market was also hit hard: Existing home sales plunged 91% in eight cities where data are available.

Even before the outbreak, housing was already on the back foot as government officials adopted measures to curb over-lending and runaway price growth. As Bloomberg reports, Chinese real estate is on course to experience a bigger drop than during the 2003 SARS pandemic.

Shenzhen has reportedly banned all forms of home sales over the rise of infections in the sub-provincial city. Shenzhen’s metro region is home to more than 23 million people.

While some analysts expect home sales to pick up later this year, citizens in quarantined zones have seen their incomes decline. Lockdowns impact as many as 400 million Chinese citizens.

Inflation Surges

Coronavirus has disrupted businesses and supply chains as residents flocked grocery stores to load up on essential supplies. The result has been a massive uptick in inflation.

On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s consumer price index surged 5.4% annually in January, the highest in eight years. Compared with December, consumer prices spiked 1.4% after flat-lining the month before.

Analysts at Nomura believe CPI inflation will remain comfortably above 4% annually through the first half of 2020.

Factory-gate inflation also rose in January from a year earlier, snapping six months of year-over-year declines. The producer price index (PPI) edged up 0.1% annually after falling 0.5% in December.

China’s Shrinking GDP Growth Revised Even Lower

Speculation that coronavirus will lead to a worldwide recession have echoed loudly in recent weeks as the number of infected countries reached 27. As the data on home sales and inflation showed, China’s economy is already suffering.

On Monday, a senior member of the Chinese government attempted to quantify the extent of that suffering.

Zeng Gang, vice chair of the National Institute for Finance and Development, says coronavirus will shave 1 full percentage point off China’s economic growth this year.

He said, as per Reuters:

At present, according to different scenario assumptions, researchers expect the negative impact of the epidemic on full-year GDP growth to be in the range of 0.2% to 1%.

China’s economy is already growing at its slowest pace in almost 30 years. Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called for the continuation of that trend. In its biannual World Economic Outlook publication, the Fund forecast China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 6% in 2020.

If Zeng’s forecast is correct, Chinese GDP growth could slow to around 5% this year.

Official reports place global coronavirus infections at around 43,200, with the vast majority concentrated in mainland China. Some researchers think the official numbers are being suppressed by the Chinese government in a desperate attempt to control the narrative. Ironically, state censorship may have enabled the outbreak to spread.

This article was edited by Josiah Wilmoth.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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