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Softness is starting to creep into the Canadian economy: Economists – BNN Bloomberg

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A flash estimate for the Canadian economy in June is showing signs of a slowdown, something economists are attributing to the Bank of Canada’s series of steep interest rate hikes.

While the economy gained 0.3 per cent in May on a month-over-month basis, a lookahead to June revealed a 0.2 per cent contraction, the data released from Statistics Canada on Friday showed

“Maybe a little bit of softness (is) starting to creep into the economy,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, told BNN Bloomberg in a TV interview on Friday. 
 
The forecasted June weakness is showing up in all key economic data points, he added. 
 
“We’re seeing it in areas like housing, we’re seeing it in areas like consumer spending – where spending volumes at the retail level have really flattened out even though we are seeing very strong demographic and population flows, and business investment has been little sluggish and choppy as well,” Kavcic said. 
 
He attributed the pressure to the Bank of Canada’s aggressive monetary policy measures. 
 
“I think bigger picture is, we’re kind of starting to see some evidence that almost 500 basis points of tightening compressed in a very short window of time is starting to have an impact on the economy more broadly,” he said. 
 
Kavcic believes the central bank will continue to keep interest rates elevated at least until the end of the year as they are proving to be effective. 
 
“The downturn is suggesting that policy seems to be tight enough to be slowing the gears on the economy, he added. 

Jean-François Perrault, senior vice-president and chief economist at Scotiabank, also attributed the slowdown to the Bank of Canada’s rate-hiking cycle.
 
“There’s no question that things are slowing, and of course likely slowing because of what the Bank of Canada has done — now we’re not seeing overwhelming evidence that things are slamming shut,” Perrault told BNN Bloomberg in a television interview on Friday. 
 
Perrault explained that as Canadians are forced to pay more for debt, it’s taken their spending power away from other expenditures. 
 
“Central banks have been trying to engineer a slowdown for some time, so perhaps this is the beginning of that occurring,” he added. 
 
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE BANK OF CANADA?
 
Kavcic said he believes the central bank will continue to keep interest rates elevated at least until the end of the year as they are proving to be effective. 
 
“The downturn is suggesting that policy seems to be tight enough to be slowing the gears on the economy, he added. 
 
Desjardins Economist Marc Desormeaux thinks the Bank of Canada is likely to hold rates steady — at least during its next meeting. 
 
“May and June (GDP) numbers suggest the Canadian economy is slowing and reinforce our view that the Bank of Canada will hold rates in September given the recent emphasis on balancing the risks of over and under tightening policy,” he wrote in a note on Friday
 
Desormeaux is also calling for economic growth to come in slightly weaker than forecasted in July. 
 
Perrault noted that as the Canadian economy continues to slow, the conversation around easing monetary policy will eventually resurface.
 
“This is very much an environment where bad news on the economic side is actually good news for a rate perspective,” he said. 

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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