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Some Democrats worry Biden’s team is ignoring political warning signs

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Democrats are growing increasingly anxious about the state of President Biden’s reelection campaign, concerned the president and his political team are ignoring warning signs and not taking action to correct course amid increasing indications that Biden is likely to face a tough race against former president Donald Trump.

The latest fuel for these worries landed with a thud this weekend when a series of polls showed Trump leading Biden in a potential head-to-head matchup nationally and in several swing states. This story is based on interviews with a dozen Biden aides and allies, many of who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“I am concerned,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said in an interview. “I was concerned before these numbers. I am concerned by the inexplicable credibility that Donald Trump seems to have despite all of the indictments, the lies, the incredible wrongdoing.”

New York Times-Siena College polls found Biden trailing Trump in five of the six most competitive battleground states: Trump led Biden by 10 percentage points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona and Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Biden led Trump by two in Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in all six of those states, though generally by very narrow margins.

Of particular concern to Biden allies are indications that his support among Black voters, who were critical to his victory in 2020, may be softening.

“People fundamentally misunderstood what Black voters said in 2020,” said Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund. “The depth of support was never there. The enthusiasm was never there for Biden. We were very pragmatic. We knew he was the best chance to beat Trump.”

Albright said many Black voters, especially younger ones, have been disillusioned by Biden’s policies, especially on student debt — his effort to forgive borrowers was overturned by the Supreme Court — and his fervent support of Israel. Albright predicted many Black voters would still end up supporting Biden, but he said the president runs the risk of having some sit out the 2024 election if his campaign does not ramp up engagement with voters.

The Biden campaign and its supporters sought to quickly tamp down the concerns, arguing that polls often paint a dire picture for incumbent presidents a year before the election and may not reflect voters’ behavior on Election Day. Most voters are not tuned into politics at this point in an election cycle, they said, and the environment will improve for Biden once he officially has a clear Republican opponent.

Biden campaign officials expect that opponent to be Trump, who has a long list of political vulnerabilities, including his role as a defendant in several criminal trials.

“Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later,” Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, said in a statement, noting that polls forecast a loss for President Barack Obama in 2012 and for congressional Democrats in 2022, only to see them perform well a year later.

“President Biden’s campaign is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our diverse, winning coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning, popular agenda and MAGA Republicans’ unpopular extremism,” Munoz said. “We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll.”

The campaign also pointed to its current $25 million advertising buy, including efforts targeting Black and Latino voters, and cited its organizing pilot programs launched last month in Arizona and Wisconsin. Those programs include about two dozen staffers on the ground in both states with a focus on digital and in-person outreach.

Inside the campaign, the aides closest to Biden largely dismissed the polls over the weekend and did not signal any serious concern about their strategy. But some Democratic strategists have long worried that Biden’s core political team, which includes a coterie of long-serving aides, is not fully transparent or open to outside advice, a criticism Biden officials rejected Monday.

Democrats not directly involved in the reelection campaign questioned whether Biden’s strategy of emphasizing the economy and “Bidenomics” agenda has been effective, and whether it is time for a shift in messaging and tactics. The president should be campaigning more actively, they say, taking on Trump and the other Republicans with vigor and emphasizing social issues such as abortion rights where Democrats enjoy a big advantage.

Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the Biden team still has considerable work to do, particularly with younger people and Black and Latino voters. “Once it’s Trump and Biden next year, a big chunk of that will come back. We need all of it to come back,” Rosenberg said. “There’s a distance between Biden and younger voters that we’re going to have to overcome. This is a weakness that we’re going to have to address. I think it is doable.”

For now, Biden campaign operatives say, they are gathering information, testing ways of reaching voters and attempting to measure what sticks and what doesn’t.

Democrats have long expected a competitive general election against Trump as the likely Republican nominee, and a recent memo from Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, emphasized that the election would be close. She argued that Biden was well-positioned to win, however, because of the consistency and popularity of his message; the extreme positions of any possible Republican nominee; and Democrats’ unity behind his candidacy.

Blumenthal said that while he thinks Biden will be reelected, his campaign needs to “more impactfully and dramatically” sell the president’s record.

“A campaign strategy isn’t always obvious or evident a year from the election,” he added. “A lot will happen over the next three and six months that will help shape the election. I can guarantee that we will look back on this conversation and say ‘Wow, we never anticipated that’ and you can fill in the blank. At the end of the day, Joe Biden knows how to lead. Donald Trump does not.”

Some Biden allies argue that because the latest polls were conducted in the midst of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, the results paint a picture that is likely to change. Biden has supported Israel’s incursion, but many young, Black and liberal Democrats passionately oppose it.

Others contend that much of Biden’s vulnerability relates to his age, 80, and his sometimes-frail appearance, which could be harder to address. Trump, at 77, is only three years younger than Biden, but polls regularly show his age to be less of a liability.

In the New York Times-Siena College polls, 22 percent of Black voters in key swing states supported Trump, who won just 8 percent of Black voters nationally in 2020. Young voters, an important factor in Biden’s 2020 win, favored Biden only slightly, with the president winning voters under 30 by one percentage point.

The result is a new level of anxiety among Democrats. “The chatter level is at an intensity I have not seen it before,” said one Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity to provide a candid picture. “There are concerns among people in the consulting world that the campaign is not being run the way it’s supposed to be run.”

Some political veterans have previously derided such fears as “bed-wetting,” saying Democrats are quick to panic at the slightest provocation. But the closeness of the potential Biden-Trump race is seen by some with genuine alarm, especially given that Biden’s likely opponent faces an array of criminal charges, sought to overturn the last election and has vowed revenge against his political opponents if he wins again.

“We should bed wet a little,” one strategist said. “We should be scared. We should be terrified about what might happen.”

The recent polls emerged shortly after many Democratic luminaries, including Obama, gathered in Chicago last weekend to celebrate 15 years since he was elected. Attendees said there was a pervasive sense of concern about Biden’s standing.

But others came quickly to the Biden campaign’s defense. “There is just no evidence that any of these polls this far out are right,” said Jim Messina, who managed Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign.

“Once this is a binary choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, then these numbers will change and they will change quickly — we know this from every campaign,” Messina said. “It’s what happens because we are a very partisan country and everyone wants someone else, including probably my wife, but in the end she’s not going to get something else.”

Biden allies also said that a year out from the election is traditionally a low point for incumbents seeking reelection. In 2012, Obama was struggling and did not settle on the strategy that eventually helped him win a second term until late in 2011. But Obama was facing a likely opponent in Mitt Romney who was far less-known that Trump is now, suggesting Biden has less room to change the current dynamic.

Rosenberg said the latest round of presidential polls conflicts with the results of special elections around the country this year, where Democrats have had a string of successes. Political advisers to the president noted that a year ago, polls were suggesting a red wave would give Republicans a major victory in the midterm elections. Instead, Democrats performed much better than the polls predicted.

Biden’s political advisers say that is already happening.

“Obviously with young people and with our core communities of color, we know there is a lot of work to be done,” one adviser said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss politically sensitive matters. “We have to be sure we are reaching these voters. … That’s why we started so early.”

But some activists warned that the campaign needs to ramp up those efforts.

“Some of this is going to change as we get closer to the election,” Albright said. “But some of it is more fundamental, and if they don’t start to do things differently, than it will become a bigger issue.”

 

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Virginia Democrats advance efforts to protect abortion, voting rights, marriage equality

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RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.

The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.

“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”

The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.

“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”

The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.

“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.

Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.

Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.

It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.

“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”

A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.

If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.

The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.

As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.

Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.

“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.

The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.

___

Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.

___

Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.

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Trump chooses anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary

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NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.

“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.

He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.

The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.

A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.

With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”

It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.

Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.

He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.

HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.

Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.

__ Seitz reported from Washington.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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In Cyprus, Ukrainians learn how to dispose of landmines that kill and maim hundreds

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NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — In a Cypriot National Guard camp, Ukrainians are being trained on how to identify, locate and dispose of landmines and other unexploded munitions that litter huge swaths of their country, killing and maiming hundreds of people, including children.

Analysts say Ukraine is among the countries that are the most affected by landmines and discarded explosives, as a result of Russia’s ongoing war.

According to U.N. figures, some 399 people have been killed and 915 wounded from landmines and other munitions since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, equal to the number of casualties reported from 2014-2021. More than 1 in 10 of those casualties have been children.

The economic impact is costing billions to the Ukrainian economy. Landmines and other munitions are preventing the sowing of 5 million hectares, or 10%, of the country’s agricultural land.

Cyprus stepped up to offer its facilities as part of the European Union’s Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine. So far, almost 100 Ukrainian armed forces personnel have taken part in three training cycles over the last two years, said Cyprus Foreign Ministry spokesperson Theodoros Gotsis.

“We are committed to continuing this support for as long as it takes,” Gotsis told the Associated Press, adding that the Cyprus government has covered the 250,000 euro ($262,600) training cost.

Cyprus opted to offer such training owing to its own landmine issues dating back five decades when the island nation was ethnically divided when Turkey invaded following a coup that sought union with Greece. The United Nations has removed some 27,000 landmines from a buffer zone that cuts across the island, but minefields remain on either side. The Cypriot government says it has disposed of all anti-personnel mines in line with its obligations under an international treaty that bans the use of such munitions.

In Cyprus, Ukrainians undergo rigorous theoretical and practical training over a five-week Basic Demining and Clearance course that includes instruction on distinguishing and safely handling landmines and other explosive munitions, such as rockets, 155 mm artillery shells, rocket-propelled grenades and mortar shells.

Theoretical training uses inert munitions identical to the actual explosives.

Most of the course is comprised of hands-on training focusing on the on-site destruction of unexploded munitions using explosives, the chief training officer told the Associated Press. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to disclose his identity for security reasons.

“They’re trained on ordnance disposal using real explosives,” the officer said. “That will be the trainees’ primary task when they return.”

Cypriot officials said the Ukrainian trainees did not want to be either interviewed or photographed.

Defusing discarded munitions or landmines in areas where explosive charges can’t be used — for instance, near a hospital — is not part of this course because that’s the task of highly trained teams of disposal experts whose training can last as long as eight months, the officer said.

Trainees, divided into groups of eight, are taught how to operate metal detectors and other tools for detecting munitions like prodders — long, thin rods which are used to gently probe beneath the ground’s surface in search of landmines and other explosive ordnance.

Another tool is a feeler, a rod that’s used to detect booby-trapped munitions. There are many ways to booby-trap such munitions, unlike landmines which require direct pressure to detonate.

“Booby-trapped munitions are a widespread phenomenon in Ukraine,” the chief training officer explained.

Training, primarily conducted by experts from other European Union countries, takes place both in forested and urban areas at different army camps and follows strict safety protocols.

The short, intense training period keeps the Ukrainians focused.

“You see the interest they show during instruction: they ask questions, they want to know what mistakes they’ve made and the correct way of doing it,” the officer said.

Humanitarian data and analysis group ACAPS said in a Jan. 2024 report that 174,000 sq. kilometers (67,182 sq. miles) or nearly 29% of Ukraine’s territory needs to be surveyed for landmines and other explosive ordnance.

More than 10 million people are said to live in areas where demining action is needed.

Since 2022, Russian forces have used at least 13 types of anti-personnel mines, which target people. Russia never signed the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning the use of anti-personnel mines, but the use of such mines is nonetheless considered a violation of its obligations under international law.

Russia also uses 13 types of anti-tank mines.

The International Campaign to Ban Landmines said in its 2023 Landmine Monitor report that Ukrainian government forces may have also used antipersonnel landmines in contravention of the Mine Ban Treaty in and around the city of Izium during 2022, when the city was under Russian control.

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