Having lagged a recovery in demand to pre-pandemic levels enjoyed by other fuels, jet fuel appears set finally to take off as more governments make air travel easier.
Global jet fuel demand is languishing 15-20% below 2019 levels, according to analysts, but confidence generated by rising vaccination levels has led to increased passenger flight bookings in recent weeks.
“The vaccination rate continues to increase. So, I don’t see the reason why aviation demand won’t pick up,” a Singapore-based jet fuel trader said.
“I think airlines would definitely like to capture the year-end festive travel demand with the blessings from their governments. Logistics, however, can be a challenge, especially setting up VTL (vaccinated travel lane) flights.”
Within Europe, air travel has risen in recent months, and as COVID restrictions are relaxed further an increasing number of Europeans are booking flights beyond their continent.
Starting Nov. 8, the United States will admit fully vaccinated foreign air travelers from the 26 so-called Schengen countries in Europe, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and Greece, as well as Britain, Ireland, China, India, South Africa, Iran and Brazil.
Aside from the United States, other countries that have announced plans to lift extraordinary restrictions on international flights include major tourist destination Thailand, Asian travel hub Singapore, and Israel.
European jet fuel demand is at nearly 72% of pre-COVID levels, having grown for a third consecutive week, when in pre-COVID times it would normally experience a seasonal decline, according to data from Rystad Energy.
Northwest European spot cargo jet fuel prices have risen by about 30% since mid-August and were trading at $734.50 a tonne on Nov. 4, according to Reuters assessments. Crack spreads <JET-C-NWE, BFO> have more than doubled to around $12.7 a barrel over the same period.
Profit margins for processing jet fuel in Europe rose to a 2021 high of $13.50 a barrel in mid-October. That margin, also known as a crack spread, was trading at about $12 a barrel on Nov. 3, a four-fold increase from the same time period last year – but it is still below where the crack spread was in 2019.
Looking for signals that demand is truly taking off, traders say they were watching how fast airlines fill seats and add additional flights on international routes.
“Right now there’s still only one non-stop flight from Houston to London … we aren’t currently planning for a huge spike in jet demand yet,” said a senior U.S. refined products trader.
In the United States, consumers are taking more domestic flights, and bookings have increased as the vaccine rollout begins for children aged from 5-11.
At the end of October, consumer spending on U.S. airline carriers exceeded levels reached two years ago for the first time since July, according to Bank of America, which said it could “reflect parents getting more comfortable about traveling during the upcoming holiday season as kids get vaccinated.”
U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is at 99% and 93% of 2019 levels, respectively, according to TPH analysts, while jet fuel is at 80%.
“A combination of increasing vaccinations, reduced travel restrictions and pent-up consumer savings should help jet narrow this gap in the coming quarters,” said TPH analyst Matthew Blair.
U.S. spot jet fuel prices are currently trading at $2.26 per gallon, up 69% from the same time a year ago.
Scheduled global airline seat capacity is 27% below where it was for the same week two years ago and is expected to continue to rise through March, according to aviation data firm OAG.
Lufthansa said new bookings are currently at 80% of 2019 levels, prompted by recovering business bookings and rising demand for long-haul flights, especially to the United States, the German airline’s most important and profitable market.
Despite the rebound in Europe and re-opening in the United States, a majority of international flights in Asia remain grounded. Several East Asian countries still require even vaccinated international travelers to quarantine at their destinations, limiting trips.
Spot jet fuel prices in Singapore, which have gained 21% over the last three months, were at $93.05 per barrel on Wednesday, while the Asian jet fuel crack spreads have risen more than 80% over the same period to almost $13 a barrel.
Tight supplies were also supporting those crack spreads, the Singapore-base trader said.
But, lockdowns have tightened in China, the world’s second-largest economy, where authorities have taken a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19 despite relatively few cases. Beijing authorities have told residents to refrain from leaving the city, postpone weddings, and cut back non-essential gatherings.
Of the flights scheduled on Wednesday at Beijing Daxing Airport, 60% were canceled as of the morning, and half of the flights at Beijing Capital International Airport were canceled.
(Reporting by Laura Sanicola, Ahmad Ghaddar and Koustav Samanta; Editing by David Gaffen, Simon Cameron-Moore and Daniel Wallis)
Behavioral tools of pandemic should be applied to climate policy – scientists
Lessons learned from the pandemic about shifting people’s behavior will be applied to policies to counter climate change and disinformation in the future, leading scientists said Thursday.
Carlos Scartascini, from the Inter-American Development Bank, said behavioral tools became critical in the pandemic, in a panel at the Reuters Next conference.
“When you say ‘wash your hands’ – you can say (it) 20 times, but if you don’t change the way you say people basically do not react,” he said.
Dr. Laura de Moliere, who heads up behavioral science in the UK Cabinet office, said a better understanding of human behavior became critical to policymakers in the pandemic, and that should carry forward.
“Climate change is probably quite an obvious one, where if we aren’t designing rules and regulations well, we will be seeing rebound effects where people are insulating their houses, but then buying bigger houses because the energy is cheaper,” she said.
She said transparency of decision making, central to COVID communication, would also be important for winning support for climate change policies.
“There’s lots of really interesting avenues for behavioral science application that have arisen because of because of the pandemic,” said Mary MacLennan, the cofounder of the United Nations Behavioral Science Group.
(Reporting by William James; writing by Merdie Nzanga)
Majority of Canadians want to ditch the British monarchy. How feasible is it? – Globalnews.ca
For Barbados, the transition on Tuesday marked an end to its last remaining colonial bonds nearly 400 years after the first English ships arrived at the Caribbean island.
There is now renewed debate in Canada over whether to follow Barbados’ lead, with a majority of Canadians saying the monarchy is becoming less relevant or is no longer relevant at all, new polling shows.
According to an Angus Reid survey published Tuesday, more than 50 per cent say Canada should not remain a constitutional monarchy indefinitely, while one-quarter say it should.
The same poll also suggests that as long as Queen Elizabeth II continues to reign, 55 per cent of Canadians support continuing to recognize her as the official head of state.
Rising number of Canadians support dropping monarchy: poll
However, that support has declined over the years, polling shows.
In an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News in March 2021, two in three Canadians, or 66 per cent of respondents, said the Queen and the Royal Family should not have any formal role in Canadian society, as they are “simply celebrities and nothing more.”
That was up two per cent over last year and six per cent since 2016, according to Ipsos.
The waning support comes amid uncertainty around the 95-year-old monarch’s health that has recently limited her public appearances.
Challenges for Canada
Despite Canadians’ dwindling enthusiasm for the royals, eliminating the monarchy in Canada will be a “complicated process,” experts say.
To make any change to the role of the Queen or her representatives in Canada, there must be unanimous consent from the House of Commons, the Senate and each of the provincial legislatures to change the constitution — a process that could take years to complete.
How Canada could break up with the monarchy
“Under our constitution, all 10 provinces would have to agree on changes to the office of the Queen and it’s very difficult for all 10 provinces to be on the same page at the same time,” said Carolyn Harris, historian and author of Raising Royalty: 1,000 Years of Royal Parenting.
Because Canada’s Indigenous communities have their own treaties with the Crown, First Nations would need to be consulted as well for any transition to take place, Harris said.
“So in Canada, it would be a very complicated process compared to the comparatively straightforward process in Barbados,” she told Global News.
Queen responds to Harry and Meghan’s tell-all interview
Citizens for a Canadian Republic (CCR), a non-profit group, acknowledges there would be challenges when it comes to amending the Constitution but still encourages the discussion.
Among the hurdles it highlights on its website is “an unfair amending formula.”
“Compounding these difficulties is the subject of how Canadians should choose their new head of state and what role it would play in the federal system,” CCR states.
In the practical sense, abolishing the monarchy would not change much for Canada, as the Queen has no political authority, argued Melanie Newton, an associate professor of history at the University of Toronto.
“And the federal government could become a republic without the Indigenous people necessarily having to give up those symbolic ties to the British monarchy,” she said.
Barbados breaks free
Barbados’ move to becoming a republic was the culmination of a more than two decades-long push to ditch the monarchy.
A “major shift” took place last year spurred on by the racial inequalities of the COVID-19 pandemic response, access to vaccines and the Black Lives Matter protest movement across the world, said Newton.
In a historic throne speech in Sept. 2020, governor-general Dame Sandra Mason told the world Barbados was removing Queen Elizabeth as its head of state.
A two-thirds majority vote was needed to amend the country’s constitution.
The parliament unanimously passed the Constitution (Amendment) (No. 2) Bill, 2021 last month, effectively transferring the responsibilities of the governor general to a new position of president.
Mason was elected as the island’s first president by the Barbados parliament on Oct. 20 and formally sworn in on Nov. 30.
Barbados becomes a republic and parts ways with the Queen
Cynthia Barrow-Giles, professor of political science at the University of West Indies, said the transition to the republic represents a “moment of pride for many Barbadians.”
“This move is very emblematic of overthrowing the yoke of British colonialism and with it some of the negative connotations that people have been dealing with more recently with respect to the character of British colonialism,” she told Global News.
But there is still a “significant amount of work” left to do in terms of the constitution and governance, Barrow-Giles added.
The process of becoming a republic is “far easier” when there is a centralized system of government, as was the case with Barbados, she noted.
“Canada’s situation compared to the Caribbean situation is a little more complex,” she said.
What about other Commonwealth nations?
Other Caribbean nations have also left the monarchy to become republics, including Trinidad and Tobago, but the last country to remove the Queen as head of state was Mauritius in 1992.
With Barbados cutting ties, that leaves 15 Commonwealth countries that have the Queen as their monarch, including Canada.
However, Barbados will remain part of the Commonwealth, a grouping of 54 countries across Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe.
Other Caribbean nations, including Jamaica and St. Lucia, have also discussed breaking away from the monarchy.
The details on the Queen’s mounting health concerns
Now, Barbados’ move may fuel republicanism within the Commonwealth, experts say.
“It’s certainly something that will be discussed and debated in the Commonwealth realms, especially as this transition does not mean a departure from the Commonwealth,” said Harris.
Barrow-Giles concurred, saying, “I would think that for a lot of the other Caribbean countries, the conversation would resume, and hopefully we’ll get that transition going.”
— with files from Global News’ Redmond Shannon
© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
New travel rules: Canadian airports warn of 'chaos' – CTV News
Canada’s plan to require novel coronavirus tests for all but U.S. arrivals on international flights risks causing “chaos” and long lines if all passengers are expected to get tested at airports, industry groups said.
The move, announced Tuesday, comes as the travel season kicks into gear and could stretch airport resources as well as testing holiday-makers’ patience, they said.
Daniel Gooch, president of the Canadian Airports Council, said airports cannot test all overseas arrivals on-site without long wait times.
“Do we really want people waiting for hours for a test in a customs hall?” he asked by phone on Wednesday.
“We want to avoid chaos. And we want to ensure that travelers who have booked trips are comfortable to travel.”
Canada on Tuesday said it will require people arriving internationally by air, except from the United States, to take a COVID-19 test, seeking to halt the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.
Currently, only randomly selected passengers from international flights are tested at airports by private companies the government contracts.
The announcement came as the country’s aviation sector, battered by the pandemic, had been looking forward to a stronger holiday season this year.
Canadian public health authorities did not say Wednesday when the policy will come into effect, who will administer the tests or whether the tests will be administered on-site or through take-home kits.
Airports are pushing for the latter.
Tori Gass, a spokesperson for Toronto’s Pearson International Airport – Canada’s largest – said in an email that “a combination of onsite and off-airport testing must be considered to accommodate the volume of tests contemplated.”
Some travellers, meanwhile, who had rushed to book trips amid loosening restrictions just weeks before, were having second thoughts.
“I know various clients who have decided to cancel and are now looking at what refunds they’ll be able to get,” said Marty Firestone with Travel Secure insurance, adding that the travel landscape had been getting better.
“Now we’ve taken two steps back,” he said.
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