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Sports Media: 2024 predictions: One final look into the sports media crystal ball

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Look for ESPN to retain the top rights package in the NBA alongside Warner Bros. Discovery, Prime Video and NBC.getty images

ESPN is faced with several massive decisions — from rights deals to carriage deals to corporate mergers — that will have huge reverberations throughout the sports media business.

Here are my best guesses about what to expect in 2024.

NBA signs $5 billion worth of media deals per year

The NBA nearly doubles the average annual value of its media rights haul by carving out four packages. ESPN retains the top package alongside Warner Bros. Discovery, Amazon Prime Video and NBC. The deals are finalized in the spring.

ESPN wants to keep exclusive rights to the NBA Finals but ends up sharing them every other year with NBC, ensuring that the Finals remains on broadcast television. One reason ESPN agrees to give up part of the NBA Finals — and carry fewer regular-season games — is to conserve money for other deals it will cut later in the year.

Amazon’s deal includes a weekly regular-season schedule — probably Thursday nights — and an exclusive playoff series. Look for Amazon to use Warner Bros. Discovery Sports’ production teams and some of its talent on games, similar to how Amazon uses NBC Sports production on its “Thursday Night Football” games. The NBC and WBD Sports deals include some games that are exclusive to their streaming services, Peacock and Max.

Apple makes a run to pick up all the NBA’s rights globally and actually makes an offer that tempts Commissioner Adam Silver. But the NBA is not ready to give up the reach that broadcast television provides. Netflix does not bid on a package of live rights, but commits to a “Drive to Survive”-style series for the league.

Bonus prediction: Soon after the NBA announces its new media deal, it announces expansion into two markets: Las Vegas and Seattle.

ESPN takes control of NFL Network/NFL RedZone

This is the year that the NFL officially partners with ESPN, a move that sees NFL Network and NFL RedZone folded into Disney’s cable channels. The league keeps control over the content of these channels, and NFL Network gains as much as 12 million subscribers thanks to the move.

The deal comes after Disney has talked with companies, leagues and private equity for the better part of the year about a stake in ESPN. The NFL started looking for an investor in its media properties a couple of years ago. This is a marriage waiting to happen.

Expect to see more cooperation between the league and ESPN as a result of this agreement, from continued “Monday Night Football” simulcasts on ABC to more alternate programming around the games.

Amazon lands an NFL playoff game in 2025

Amazon ponies up $125 million for exclusive access to an NFL wild-card playoff game next season. For the second year in a row, NBC’s Peacock streaming service also will carry an NFL wild-card playoff game exclusively.

ESPN does not take its main channel DTC in 2024

Despite pressure to accelerate the launch of its flagship channels’ direct-to-consumer service, ESPN keeps to its original plan to launch in the summer of 2025.

ESPN secures CFP rights

For the better part of a year, it’s been assumed that ESPN and Fox will split the expanded College Football Playoff. But Fox has not been as aggressive as originally thought, and Amazon, NBC and Turner will fall below ESPN’s bid. Once it completes its CFP deal, look for ESPN to sell some of the early-round games to other media companies.

ESPN keeps entire NCAA rights package

ESPN keeps the entire NCAA package including the Women’s Basketball Tournament, College World Series, Women’s College World Series and men’s and women’s lacrosse. The NCAA considered peeling off Olympic sports for NBC, but ESPN steps up to keep it all. (Editor’s note: This deal was announced Jan. 4)

ESPN renews UFC deal

The UFC has been one of the main drivers of ESPN+ subscriptions, so ESPN has prioritized renewing this deal. Other media companies kick the tires on the property, but ESPN sews this one up quickly. One scenario that could be in the offing: Disney cuts a TKO Group deal that incorporates both UFC and “WWE Raw,” which Disney would carry on its FX cable channel. That scenario would become likely if WWE is unable to find enough money from “Raw” suitors. But it looks like one media company will step up for that property.

Amazon picks up “WWE Raw” rights

Amazon gets “WWE Raw” rights and keeps the series on Monday nights. This hits an audience of young males, a demo where Amazon believes it sees growth in Prime subscriptions. Plus, it gives the company another night of live programming on Prime Video.

ESPN exercises the out in its MLB deal

If all my predictions come true this year, ESPN will increase its rights fees payouts for the NBA, CFP, NCAA and UFC. 2024 also will see the channel — all of pay TV, in fact — continue losing subscribers. ESPN will cut costs elsewhere. That’s bad news for MLB.

ESPN and MLB have an “out” clause in their deal after the 2025 season. By the end of this year, ESPN will let MLB know that it will exercise that out in 2025. This does not mean that ESPN will walk away from MLB in 2025. But it does mean that ESPN will try to negotiate a lower rights fee.

NBC will carry more MLB games

Peacock’s deal for Sunday morning MLB games is over, and the league has been shopping it to other media companies. Look for NBC to renew that deal, but only if it can carry more of those games on its broadcast channel. Given the likelihood that ESPN will opt out of its deal after the 2025 season, MLB wants to maintain its relationship with one of the big broadcast networks.

Stephen A., Cowherd leave ESPN, Fox

Following a model started by Bill Simmons, look for two big talkers to exit linear cable and focus more on their own digital companies. Stephen A. Smith’s ESPN deal is up in 2025. But by the end of the year, he will decide to go all in on his podcasting business. It’s a similar story for Colin Cowherd, whose deal also ends in 2025. Cowherd will look to spend more time and effort growing The Volume.

Diamond Sports begins a wind down

Amazon has been talking about making a significant investment in Diamond Sports, as The Wall Street Journal reported in December. Those talks, though, will not cross the finish line. The main reason: Neither Diamond nor Amazon will be able to convince MLB to support the deal. Local MLB, NBA and NHL rights held by Diamond revert back to the leagues after this season, at which point chaos will ensue.

No merger for Paramount

A couple of years ago, D.C. regulators blocked a deal in which Paramount was going to sell Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House for $2.18 billion. That regulatory environment hasn’t changed, making it unlikely that a Paramount merger with either Warner Bros. Discovery or Comcast gains momentum. A deal to sell to RedBird and Skydance seems more likely to pass regulatory hurdles. But my sources see that as unlikely, too.

CBS walks away from Serie A

CBS does not renew its deal with Italian soccer league Serie A, which ends after the 2023-24 season. CBS, which pays around $75 million for Serie A rights, decides that it makes more financial sense to focus on its Champions League deal as Paramount+’s pathway into European soccer.

Formula One renewal talks start slow

Here’s another area where ESPN will look to cut costs. Formula One will start negotiating a new deal at the end of the year as its ESPN deal runs through 2025, looking for a 50% increase. But amid tepid viewership and a tightening sports rights marketplace, F1 will have a hard time finding takers.

WBD rebrands sports department to TNT Sports

Warner Bros. Discovery already renamed its sports divisions in the United Kingdom and Ireland as TNT Sports. The company will bring that name stateside this year, dropping the cumbersome Warner Bros. Discovery Sports in favor of TNT Sports. It will use TNT Sports regardless of whether the event is carried by TNT, TBS, truTV or Max.

SBJ continues to kick butt

After nearly 18 fabulous years, this is my last column for SBJ. I start a new job at Puck News at the end of the month. When I started in 2006, SBJ was the sports business bible. It still is today and will remain the go-to pub for the foreseeable future. Thank you, everyone, for reading.

 

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Sutherland House Experts Book Publishing Launches To Empower Quiet Experts

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Sutherland House Experts is Empowering Quiet Experts through
Compelling Nonfiction in a Changing Ideas Landscape

TORONTO, ON — Almost one year after its launch, Sutherland House Experts is reshaping the publishing industry with its innovative co-publishing model for “quiet experts.” This approach, where expert authors share both costs and profits with the publisher, is bridging the gap between expertise and public discourse. Helping to drive this transformation is Neil Seeman, a renowned author, educator, and entrepreneur.

“The book publishing world is evolving rapidly,” publisher Neil Seeman explains. “There’s a growing hunger for expert voices in public dialogue, but traditional channels often fall short. Sutherland House Experts provides a platform for ‘quiet experts’ to share their knowledge with the broader book-reading audience.”

The company’s roster boasts respected thought leaders whose books are already gaining major traction:

• V. Kumar Murty, a world-renowned mathematician, and past Fields Institute director, just published “The Science of Human Possibilities” under the new press. The book has been declared a 2024 “must-read” by The Next Big Ideas Club and is receiving widespread media attention across North America.

• Eldon Sprickerhoff, co-founder of cybersecurity firm eSentire, is seeing strong pre-orders for his upcoming book, “Committed: Startup Survival Tips and Uncommon Sense for First-Time Tech Founders.”

• Dr. Tony Sanfilippo, a respected cardiologist and professor of medicine at Queen’s University, is generating significant media interest with his forthcoming book, “The Doctors We Need: Imagining a New Path for Physician Recruitment, Training, and Support.”

Seeman, whose recent and acclaimed book, “Accelerated Minds,” explores the entrepreneurial mindset, brings a unique perspective to publishing. His experience as a Senior Fellow at the University of Toronto’s Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, and academic affiliations with The Fields Institute and Massey College, give him deep insight into the challenges faced by people he calls “quiet experts.”

“Our goal is to empower quiet, expert authors to become entrepreneurs of actionable ideas the world needs to hear,” Seeman states. “We are blending scholarly insight with market savvy to create accessible, impactful narratives for a global readership. Quiet experts are people with decades of experience in one or more fields who seek to translate their insights into compelling non-fiction for the world,” says Seeman.

This fall, Seeman is taking his insights to the classroom. He will teach the new course, “The Writer as Entrepreneur,” at the University of Toronto, offering aspiring authors practical tools to navigate the evolving book publishing landscape. To enroll in this new weekly night course starting Tuesday, October 1st, visit:
https://learn.utoronto.ca/programs-courses/courses/4121-writer-entrepreneur

“The entrepreneurial ideas industry is changing rapidly,” Seeman notes. “Authors need new skills to thrive in this dynamic environment. My course and our publishing model provide those tools.”

About Neil Seeman:
Neil Seeman is co-founder and publisher of Sutherland House Experts, an author, educator, entrepreneur, and mental health advocate. He holds appointments at the University of Toronto, The Fields Institute, and Massey College. His work spans entrepreneurship, public health, and innovative publishing models.

Follow Neil Seeman:
https://www.neilseeman.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/seeman/

Follow Sutherland House Experts:

https://sutherlandhouseexperts.com/
https://www.instagram.com/sutherlandhouseexperts/

Media Inquiries:
Sasha Stoltz | Sasha@sashastoltzpublicity.com | 416.579.4804
https://www.sashastoltzpublicity.com

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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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