Spotlight: COVID-19 and Guelph's real estate market. Where do buyers and sellers stand? - GuelphToday | Canada News Media
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Spotlight: COVID-19 and Guelph's real estate market. Where do buyers and sellers stand? – GuelphToday

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Within two weeks, the world has changed dramatically. We’re now in the face of massive closures and shutdowns, cancelled sports seasons, stock market declines and fistfights in the aisles of Costco over toilet paper. COVID-19, or the Coronavirus, has impacted everyone internationally in one way or another. But does the trickle-down of this global virus eventually impact the Guelph housing market? 

Yes, it does. 

But exactly how, is anyone’s guess.

There are several scenarios that could play out in the Guelph real estate market in the coming weeks and months. With Coronavirus panic and uncertainty in the market, both buyers and sellers need to wade through facts and figures to determine whether now is a good time to buy or sell. 

In March alone, the Big Five banks have made a 1 per cent cut in the prime rate, which is the key benchmark that underpins variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, the federal banking regulator, also had plans to recalculate and reduce the qualifying rate on mortgages but has now put this plan on hold. 

It could get more aggressive in the market

There’s no question that the Southern Ontario real estate market is in short supply of homes for sale. The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) reports that the average price of a home has increased by almost 17 per cent or $130,000 in February alone. 

In January, 60 per cent of homes sold at or above the listing price in Guelph. In February, that number increased to 63 per cent. As of March 13, 68 per cent have sold at or above the list price this month. 

It’s equally hot in Guelph.

Sellers are taking the record-high sales prices from the GTA and putting their money to work in Guelph where real estate is relatively cheaper. At the same time, there are fewer sellers putting their homes on the market in Guelph for a variety of reasons.

But what if those sellers decide it’s not urgent to sell and decide to wait until the Coronavirus is behind us? Fewer homes on the market with the same number of buyers could cause an even worse housing frenzy.

Local realtors, Beth and Ryan Waller predict that the higher-end home segment in Guelph of $750,000-plus will gain market share from the other segments. In February alone, this segment represented 17 per cent of home sales versus 11 per cent in February 2019. Homebuyers in this segment that are considering selling this year may want to do so during the spring rush.

Or, the market may be flooded with supply and there are fewer buyers

An alternative scenario could be that sellers believe we are in for a recession and race to get their houses on the market in anticipation of falling prices. After all, the Guelph market has had quite a run and it’s always good to sell at the high. 

At the same time, buyers may be deciding that going out in public for open houses and viewings could expose them to the Coronavirus and may decide to put their home search on hold for a few weeks. If there ends up being an increased supply and less demand, prices will rapidly decline and the competitiveness of today’s market will take a breather making it easier for buyers to get into their dream home.

If there ends up being an increased supply and less demand, prices will rapidly decline and the competitiveness of today’s market will take a breather making it easier for buyers to get into their dream home.

Or it may be business as usual

It’s quite likely that we’ll see a combination of both of these scenarios as we move into the spring market – the traditional strong period for buying and selling homes. There will be increased sellers and continued demand from out of town and local buyers. And as a result, the market will probably tread along at a more balanced, more reasonable pace than we’ve seen in the past few months.

One of the most important things to consider is the guidance of a local REALTOR® who follows the market closely. If you’re selling, a marketing plan is necessary to maximize your sale price in today’s market. If you’re buying, you should have insight into neighbourhood trends, potential buying strategies and strong negotiators working for you.

Beth and Ryan Waller are Guelph REALTORS®. You can reach them at 519-546-3390, by email or visit them at www.bethandryan.ca.
 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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