Toronto’s defence has been giving teams fits all season long, but it’s been its zone defence that has given Boston trouble so far in this series. While the zone hasn’t been enough to prevent the Raptors from going down 2-1, it could be the key to them getting back in the series.
“Stat Just Happened” is our new series where we’ll pair an important stat with how it actually unfolded on the floor. Our aim? To answer key questions, uncover hidden truths and peel back the curtain on why some numbers matter more than others.
Why is that noteworthy? It’s an incredibly low figure.
For perspective, Cleaning The Glass had the Celtics averaging 0.97 points per halfcourt possession during the regular season, the 11th-best rate in the league. The New York Knicks had the least efficient halfcourt offence with an average of 0.89 points per possession.
To hold this Celtics team to a mark as low as 0.69 points per possession on anything is a huge victory for the Raptors.
Now, it’s based on a relatively small sample size – Toronto has played a total of 40 zone possessions so far in this series, per Pyper, which isn’t much – but it’s because Raptors head coach Nick Nurse has used it strategically. The risk of going zone for long periods of time is that teams are likely to figure it out because zones are vulnerable to certain shots (3s, for the most part), as well as offensive rebounds. By mixing it in at different points in the game, the Raptors have a better shot at catching the Celtics off guard with it.
The longest the Raptors have played zone was in Game 3. They played primarily a 2-1-2 zone, meaning they had two players on the perimeter, one player at the free throw line and two players on the baseline, like so:
Those matchups changed slightly when the ball was reversed, with Walker switching onto Theis at the top of the perimeter and Anunoby switching onto Smart on the wing.
The end result? Smart gets past Anunoby but is met by two help defenders when he gets into the paint, leading to a heavily contested layup that he misses.
That’s what makes the Raptors so difficult to score on when they play zone in a nutshell. As I wrote earlier in the season, I’m not sure there’s a team that rotates better defensively than the Raptors. It shows up in a number of ways, but especially when they go zone because it puts them in scramble mode, forcing all five defenders to move on a string to avoid breakdowns.
This possession serves as even better example of how well the Raptors rotate out of the zone:
It’s basically a game of helping the helper. VanVleet passes Walker onto Lowry, leaving Brown unguarded for a split-second. Anunoby and Siakam cover for Lowry when Brown puts the ball on the floor by walling off the paint, and Lowry immediately transitions into closing out on Tatum in the corner.
Had they matched up with the Celtics man-to-man, the Raptors would have been more susceptible to Walker walking into a 3-pointer following Theis’ screen because they’ve been dropping both Gasol and Ibaka in pick-and-rolls. Walker has made a career out of picking drop coverages apart, something the Raptors have already learned the hard way several times in this series.
It helps, of course, that the Raptors have some of the most versatile defenders in the league. Lowry and VanVleet defend much bigger than their size, and Anunoby and Siakam are both more than capable of keeping guards in front of them. It makes them difficult to attack in isolation because there’s rarely a clear mismatch that teams can exploit. Gasol and Ibaka are the weakest perimeter defenders in Toronto’s rotation – hence why the Raptors have been dropping them in pick-and-rolls instead of switching or hedging – but it’s easier to hide them in a zone than it is in man-to-man.
That’s not to say there aren’t ways Boston can beat Toronto’s zone, because there are. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens went to Enes Kanter for the first time in the series in Game 3 because he’s a far more competent scorer than Theis and Robert Williams. He’s also one of the best offensive rebounders in the league, the combination of which makes him better-equipped to punish the Raptors in zone.
The problem is Kanter comes with a huge target on his back on the other end of the court. While he was able to score a couple of quick baskets when he checked into the game, he gave those points right back, with VanVleet and Lowry wasting no time putting him in a pick-and-roll.
He did answer a question about it. He said he put Kanter in because the Celtics couldn’t score on the Raptors zone and thought Kanter would help would that. https://t.co/LRcsIm3tNl
What does that mean for Game 4? Who knows. The Celtics will almost certainly be better prepared for Toronto’s zone defence after the amount of trouble it gave them in Game 3, but will they have enough success against it to prevent the Raptors from using it even more?
As good as the Celtics have been offensively this season, if there’s any reason to doubt them, it starts with that one key number…
0.69
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The past weekend of football was all about the favourites.
The favoured teams went 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in the NFL. In college football, the three most teams bet at the BetMGM Sportsbook in terms of number of bets and money all won and covered. All three were favourites.
Trends of the Week
The three most bet college teams that won and covered on Saturday were Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Penn State, Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State and Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan. Penn State has now lost seven straight home games as underdogs. The Nittany Lions were up 10-0 in the first quarter and were 3.5-point favourites at the time. The Buckeyes won 17-10.
In the NFL, the three most bet teams in terms of number of bets and money were the Washington Commanders (-4) at the New York Giants, the Detroit Lions (-2.5) at the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. the Miami Dolphins. All three teams won, but only two of the three covered the spread as Buffalo beat Miami 30-27.
When it came to the players with the most bets to score a touchdown on Sunday, only two of the five reached the end zone — Chase Brown (-125) and Taysom Hill (+185). David Montgomery (-140), Brian Robinson Jr. (+110) and AJ Barner (+500) did not score.
Upsets of the Week
The biggest upset in the NFL was the Carolina Panthers coming from behind to beat the New Orleans Saints 23-22. New Orleans closed as a 7-point favourite and took in 76% of the bets and 79% of the money in against-the-spread betting. The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen following the loss. They have now lost seven straight games after starting the year 2-0.
Arguably the biggest upset in college football was South Carolina beating No. 10 Texas A&M 44-20 at home. Texas A&M closed as a 2.5-point favourite and took in 59% of the bets and 58% of the money.
NEW YORK – Washington Capitals left-wing Alex Ovechkin, Carolina Hurricanes centre Martin Necas and Pittsburgh Penguins centre Sidney Crosby have been named the NHL’s three stars of the week.
Ovechkin had a league-leading five goals and nine points in four games.
The 39-year-old Capitals captain has 14 points in 11 games this season, and his 860 career goals are just 34 shy of Wayne Gretzky’s record.
Necas shared the league lead with nine points (three goals, six assists) in three games.
Crosby factored on seven of the Penguins’ eight total goals scoring four goals and adding three assists in three appearances. The 37-year-old Penguins captain leads his team with 14 points (five goals, nine assists) in 13 games this season.
Crosby and Ovechkin, longtime rivals since entering the league together in 2005-06, will meet for the 70th time in the regular season and 95th time overall when Pittsburgh visits Washington on Friday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
TORONTO – Running back Brady Oliveira of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell are the finalists for the CFL’s outstanding player award.
Oliveira led the CFL in rushing this season with 1,353 yards while Mitchell was the league leader in passing yards (5,451) and touchdowns (32).
Oliveira is also the West Division finalist for the CFL’s top Canadian award, the second straight year he’s been nominated for both.
Oliveira was the CFL’s outstanding Canadian in 2023 and the runner-up to Toronto Argonauts quarterback Chad Kelly for outstanding player.
Defensive lineman Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund of the Montreal Alouettes is the East Division’s top Canadian nominee.
Voting for the awards is conducted by the Football Reporters of Canada and the nine CFL head coaches.
The other award finalists include: defensive back Rolan Milligan Jr. of the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal linebacker Tyrice Beverette (outstanding defensive player); Saskatchewan’s Logan Ferland and Toronto’s Ryan Hunter (outstanding lineman); B.C. Lions kicker Sean Whyte and Toronto returner Janarion Grant (special teams); and Edmonton Elks linebacker Nick Anderson and Hamilton receiver Shemar Bridges (outstanding rookie).
The coach of the year finalists are Saskatchewan’s Corey Mace and Montreal’s Jason Maas.
The CFL will honour its top individual performers Nov. 14 in Vancouver.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31.
