OTTAWA —
The Canadian economy appears to have bounced back after its worst two-month stretch since the start of the pandemic, eking out a gain in June and growth in the second quarter of the year.
Statistics Canada said its preliminary estimate is that real gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.5 per cent between April and June, buttressed by a 0.7 per cent rise in June as pandemic restrictions eased following declines of 0.5 per cent in April and 0.3 per cent in May.
The decline in May put total economic activity about two per cent below pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020. The agency said that with growth in June, total economic activity was about one per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
Getting through the last one per cent may not take much longer, even though some sectors have longer to go than others, said Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean.
Restrictions are rolling back in much of the country as vaccination rates rise, and with early indications suggesting a boost in activity, the country should see a pretty strong rebound in the third quarter absent any hiccups, Jean said.
“I think we will also be talking about the Canadian economy having fully recuperated its pre-pandemic losses,” he said.
“That’s an important milestone, but I think we also have to remember that we’re still not quite there when it comes to the labour market. That’s where there’s still quite some ways to go.”
The uneven recovery in sectors prompted the federal government on Friday to announce it was extending aid to businesses and workers until Oct. 23, and freezing benefits at current rates.
Speaking in Hamilton, Ont., Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government wanted to ensure small businesses in particular have the support they need so the country can have a full and robust recovery.
The GDP figures Friday outpaced the Bank of Canada’s forecast earlier this month that the economy would grow at an annualized rate of two per cent in the second quarter. The central bank expects the economy to grow at an annualized rate of 7.3 per cent this quarter.
“Spring lockdowns in much of the country triggered the first monthly GDP declines in a year, but those setbacks are expected to be reversed in relatively short order, with June’s rebound alone almost doing the job,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.
For May, Statistics Canada said retail declined by 2.7 per cent after a drop of 5.7 per cent in April as the sector was weighed down by restrictions on in-person shopping meant to combat the third wave of COVID-19.
The accommodation and food services sector was similarly affected by restrictions and declined by 2.4 per cent in May, which was not as bad as the 4.3 per cent drop in April.
Statistics Canada said manufacturing declined 0.8 per cent in May, marking the third contraction in four months.
The agency also noted that residential building construction dropped 4.2 per cent in May, down for the first time since November 2020, and a decline of 0.4 per cent in the real estate sector as home resale activity slowed.
“As housing sales and construction levels gradually return to more sustainable levels, this area of the economy could be a drag on growth in coming months,” noted TD senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam.
Statistics Canada said the easing of public health restrictions in many provinces in June helped reverse the slide in sectors reliant on in-person services, like retail, accommodation and food services, which all saw growth.
The agency adds that there were also gains in manufacturing in June, while construction and wholesale trade appear to have contracted.
The figures for June and the second quarter will be finalized at the end of August.
CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes said the economy has some open road to recover more lost ground this summer with virus cases generally low across the country.
“That said, there remain challenges on the horizon, most notably in the form of variants of the virus which have slowed progress towards healing in other developed economies,” he wrote in a note.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 30, 2021.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
