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Stock markets fall as Ukraine invasion fears rattle investors

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British Airways Boeing 747 landing at its home base London Heathrow Airport, England.

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Europe’s stock markets have fallen sharply on rising tensions over Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s border, although US shares avoided steep declines on hopes of a deal.

Markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt clawed back some early losses, but were still trading lower in the afternoon.

Travel and tourism shares were hit hard, and London-listed Russian mining company Evraz suffered a 30% fall.

Market sentiment changed slightly after remarks by Russia’s foreign minister.

According to reports, Sergei Lavrov has suggested to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that diplomatic efforts should continue because there might be a change of doing a deal with the West.

That limited losses at the Wall Street open, with the Dow Jones falling 0.5% and S&P 500 down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.4%.

That was in contrast to European markets, which followed Asian shares sharply lower.

London’s FTSE 100 recouped some losses, but with two hours to go before the end of trading was still 1.75% lower. Germany Dax and France’s Cac were 2% off.

“The fact that the door has not been shut to further talks… is a good thing,” said Patrick O’Hare, at Briefing.com. “Hence, the negativity seen earlier has dissipated some, yet there is still a major cloud of uncertainty hanging over the market.”

Oil initially rose sharply with Brent crude topping $95 (£70) per barrel, stoking fresh inflationary worries, although the price has eased back slightly.

With oil demand high as global economies emerge from lockdown, there are fears a war or severe sanctions on Russia will cut supplies, sending the price above $100 a barrel, something not seen since 2014.

Inflation

“Just as the storm of Covid appeared to be receding, the growing expectation of an invasion of Ukraine is the fresh threat now unnerving investors, with confidence plunging in many parts of the world,” said Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter.

She added: “With worries that inflation is already running far too hot, the possibility Russia troops could move across the border has led to another surge in the oil price. Energy markets are clearly on edge and if supplies are threatened there is a risk oil will shoot up even higher.”

Analysts at Capital Economics estimate war or sanctions could add to inflation in Europe, forcing central banks to lift interest rates faster and further.

“Over the longer term, whether Russia ends up invading or not, this geopolitical flare-up is likely to speed up the process of Russia’s decoupling from the West,” Capital Economics said in a research note.

Moscow has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s border but denies any intent to invade.

Despite this, more than a dozen countries have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine, with the US saying Moscow could begin an attack “at any time”.

 

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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