Stocks and real estate are not done crashing, don't expect all-time highs for another 10 years - Chris Vermeulen - Kitco NEWS | Canada News Media
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Stocks and real estate are not done crashing, don't expect all-time highs for another 10 years – Chris Vermeulen – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – The equity markets, along with real estate, may not recover to their previous all-time highs for at least a decade, according to Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist of TheTechnicalTraders.com.

“The scenario that we’ve had in the equities market has been very extreme. A hedge fund manager came out on Market Watch and he kind of said what I was thinking which is…he thinks there’s going to be a decade-long bear market in equities. It may be not a decade long bear market, but we could have a very long time before the market recovers and gets back to where we are,” Vermeulen told David Lin, Anchor for Kitco News.

This sideways market action would be reminiscent of the NASDAQ post-2001, when following the Dot Com Bubble bust, the tech sector didn’t recover to its 2000 high for another 17 years, Vermeulen said.

Vermeulen noted that in the prior bear markets of 2000 and 2008, both times saw the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices correcting more than 50%.

By comparison, the S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s current bear cycles only accumulated losses of 21% and 32%, respectively, from their highs in late 2021, but more downside action can be expected after another “complacency rally”, he said.

“We’ve had a huge blow-off phase [in the NASDAQ], all kinds of manipulation [from the Federal Reserve] going on, we’ve had this first big sell-off on the NASDAQ chart, and really on all indices. But what’s interesting is if we take a look over here there was this kind of little pause, this bear flag move where it traded sideways to higher, and that’s a complacency type of move and we had the initial big sell-off in the NASDAQ, which is where we are now,” he said. “I think we can go into a sideways rally into the end of the year, and as the market kind of rebounds, and I think eventually we’re going to start a much bigger market correction that can take a lot longer.”



Real Estate

Residential housing sales have been slowing down, and since real estate markets typically take a while to catch up to other risk assets like the equities indices, the worst is still yet to come, Vermeulen said.

“I think the [real estate market] has had a huge blow-off phase,” he said. “There’s a guy…Christopher Whalen, who just talked about 10% plus mortgage rates next year. It’s jus like the bond markets, if yields go up, bonds go down. If mortgage rates go up, home prices come down.”

Vermeluen is not selling his current real estate holdings, noting that they’re a retirement nest egg, and long-term real estate should still realize more capital appreciation.

For Vermeulen’s outlook on gold and gold miners, watch the video above.

Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV

Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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