Stocks Could Plunge Another 15% After Fed-Spurred Selloff—Will The Economy Fall Into Recession? - Forbes | Canada News Media
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Stocks Could Plunge Another 15% After Fed-Spurred Selloff—Will The Economy Fall Into Recession? – Forbes

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Fresh off the stock market’s worst quarter since the Covid-induced downturn two years ago, many experts still aren’t convinced a recession is in the cards this year, but some are warning the risks could keep rising through next year as the Federal Reserve eases stimulus measures—signaling more bad news for stocks.

Key Facts

In a Monday note to clients, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson warned that mounting evidence showing economic growth is slowing more quickly than feared sparked last week’s “especially vicious” stock selloff and likely isn’t over, making the S&P 500, which has already plummeted 14% this year, likely to fall another 8% in the coming months.

“If there’s a true growth scare with recession probabilities rising materially,” the S&P could tank as much as 16%, Wilson calculates, pointing out the plunge to 3,460 points would line up with the index’s prepandemic highs—“where a lot of stocks have already ventured.”

Though Wilson reckons lingering high prices could deter consumer spending in coming months and push economic growth deeper into negative territory, other experts aren’t calling for a recession just yet—even though they’re acknowledging the risks are rising.

“Recession risks are low now, but elevated in 2023,” Bank of America economist Ethan Harris said in a Friday note, positing that ongoing inflation could force the Fed to hike interest rates “until it hurts,” thereby eating at corporate profits and perhaps spurring a slew of layoffs.

Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius is more optimistic, telling clients on Monday that “a recession is not inevitable” and placing the odds of one at 15% over the next year and 35% over the next two years.

Hatzius acknowledges today’s overheated labor market and decades-high inflation rate are clear headwinds, but says Covid stimulus helped put small businesses and firms with a lot of debt—which are among the most vulnerable to high interest rates—in historically strong financial positions that should help stomach the risks stemming from changes to Fed policy.

Key Background

The reopening economy, fiscal stimulus and historically low interest rates helped fuel one of the strongest bull markets ever during the pandemic, but stocks have struggled this year as the Fed raises rates and unwinds economic support to ease decades-high inflation. Uncertainty has come to a head in recent weeks, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq posting its worst month since 2008 in April, and data showing the U.S. economy shrank 1.4% last quarter despite expectations calling for 1% growth.

Crucial Quote

“The Fed has been very explicit and relatively unanimous in preparing markets for what’s coming on the tightening front, so investors aren’t necessarily concerned about it having to do more than what is already assumed, but instead that it will be impossible for the economy to avoid a recession in light of such a swift withdrawal of stimulus,” explains market analyst Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge Media.

What To Watch For

The Fed concludes its next monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, when officials are expected to announce how aggressively they’ll act to raise interest rates. “For the first time in 22 years, the Fed is poised to raise interest rates by more than a one quarter percentage point increment, and at consecutive meetings for the first time in 16 years,” Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride said in emailed comments Monday. After a 25-basis-point-hike in March, officials are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points this week, and as much as 75 basis points in June.

Further Reading

Economy Shrank 1.4% Last Quarter In Worst Showing Since Covid Recession, New GDP Estimate Shows (Forbes)

Has Inflation Peaked? Fed’s Favorite Indicator Says Maybe So—Despite Another ‘Startling’ Reading (Forbes)

Nasdaq Posts Worst Month Since 2008 And Dow Plunges 900 Points: Market Sell-Off Continues (Forbes)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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