U.S. stocks rose Tuesday as traders returned from a long weekend, with equities recouping some losses following the S&P 500’s worst week since March 2020.
The S&P 500 advanced by 2.45% in its best day in three weeks, ending at 3,764.84 and recovering some declines after plunging by 5.8% last week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.5% to end at 11,069.30, and the Dow added more than 643 points, or 2.2%, to end at 30,531.77 and post its best single-day gain since May 4.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose back above $21,000 after a cryptocurrency rout briefly sent prices below $18,000 for the first time since December 2020 over the weekend. Treasury yields climbed, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing to nearly 3.3%, and U.S. crude oil prices rose by 1.5% to top $111 per barrel.
Tuesday’s early recovery rally across risk assets came as an at least brief respite amid weeks of heavy selling. The S&P 500 sank into its first bear market since the height of the pandemic last week, and the sell-off ramped even further after the Federal Reserve unleashed a larger-than-typical 75 basis point interest rate hike and signaled it would be willing to tighten further and at the expense of some economic growth to bring down rampant inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his semi-annual address before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, during which he is likely to be pressed by lawmakers about the Fed’s actions to bring down inflation and the extent to which these may weigh on the economy.
And already, concerns over the resilience of the economy have risen sharply. A number of economists at major Wall Street firms downgraded their growth forecasts over the past several days to reflect an increased risk of a recession. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, though the final call is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
“The most likely outlook is very weak growth and persistently high inflation,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note Friday. “We see roughly a 40% chance of a recession next year. Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up.”
Others have been even more bearish. Deutsche Bank’s base case calls for a recession to begin in the third quarter of 2023, following sluggish real GDP growth of just 1.2% in the U.S. in 2022, versus the 1.8% seen previously. Goldman Sachs economists “now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a new note. He raised his recession probability to 30% from 15%.
Rising risks of a formal recession in the U.S. economy also leave the S&P 500 vulnerable to more downside, even after a more than 22% slide so far for the year-to-date. The S&P 500’s bear market slides since World War II have averaged 29.6% with an average duration of 11.4 months, according to data from LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick. However, when bear markets coincide with recessions, the S&P 500 tends to fall 34.8% on average at its bear market trough and last nearly 15 months.
On the move
Kellogg (K) shares rose after the company announced it planned to split into three separate companies. The newly spun out firms will comprise a separate global snack foods company, a North American cereal firm, and pure-play plant-based foods company.
Tesla’s (TSLA) stock gained after CEO Elon Musk said the company’s head count would only be reduced by as much as about 3.5% in the near-term, or a smaller percentage than previously expected. Musk confirmed that 10% of salaried workers at Tesla would be cut over the next three months, but that ongoing hiring would keep the net reduction to just 3-3.5% of the firm’s overall workforce, he told Bloomberg News Tuesday.
Coinbase (COIN) shares jumped more than 12% as cryptocurrency prices bounced after reaching multi-year lows. The crypto trading platform saw its stock slide nearly 80% for the year-to-date through Friday’s close, and shares have traded well below their reference price of $250 apiece from the time of Coinbase’s April 2021 direct listing.
Rania Llewellyn is out after nearly three years as chief executive of Laurentian Bank of Canada, her sudden departure coming less than a month after a strategic review failed to find a buyer for the chronically underperforming Montreal-based bank.
Shortly after the strategic review ended, the bank’s operations were shaken by a major IT outage that has not been fully resolved.
Llewellyn, who was recruited to Laurentian from Bank of Nova Scotia in 2020 with much fanfare, becoming the first woman to lead a major Canadian bank, has been succeeded as CEO by Éric Provost, an 11-year veteran of Laurentian who was most recently group head of personal and commercial banking. He has also joined the board of directors.
In a further shakeup, Michael Boychuk, former audit committee chair and reportedly a key player in the strategic review, has been appointed chair of the board following the resignation of director and chair Michael Mueller, who had been on the board since 2013.
“Éric is the right executive to lead the bank at this critical point in its evolution,” Boychuk said in an Oct. 2 statement, adding that Provost’s ascension was part of the bank’s formal succession planning process.
“We have experienced challenges recently and the board is confident that Éric will successfully focus the organization on our customer experience and operational effectiveness.”
Meny Grauman, a bank analyst at Scotia Capital Inc., said Llewellyn’s sudden departure Oct. 2 was a negative development for the bank.
“Based on the text of this morning’s press release, the trigger for this morning’s leadership changes appears to be more tied to the bank’s ongoing systems issues, but it is hard to believe that the outcome of the recent strategic review was not a factor as well,” the analyst wrote in an Oct. 2 note to clients.
Sources said Llewellyn was not pleased with the timing of the strategic review, which was acknowledged by the bank in July, just 18 months into her plan to transform the underperforming lender with a promise of “accelerated” growth by 2024.
One industry source familiar with the review said Llewellyn felt the initial rollout of her vision had been successful and she had not had sufficient time to make necessary changes to the bank’s culture and operations.
Llewellyn could not immediately be reached for comment.
Shares in Laurentian, which had already settled back down to around $30, where they traded before the strategic process was announced, fell further following the tech problems and word of Llewellyn’s departure. The stock was trading at $28.81 at midday on Oct. 2.
Laurentian has underperformed other Canadian banks, including those in Quebec, for years. Even before the shares tumbled in September when it was revealed that the strategic review had ended without a buyer, Laurentian’s stock had risen around 165 per cent since January of 1995 compared to an 1,800 per cent rise for shares of Royal Bank of Canada shares and a more than 2,000 per cent rise for National Bank of Canada stock. National Bank’s market capitalization of $34.4 billion in July dwarfed Laurentian’s of just $1.72 billion, which had sunk further to $1.25 billion by Oct. 2.
While there is much to do, Grauman said the immediate priority for Laurentian’s new CEO will be to address the impacts of a mainframe outage that occurred last week during regular maintenance.
A three-part action plan announced by the bank will include resolving any outstanding issues from the outage, better communicating progress with the bank’s clients, and launching a comprehensive review of the factors that led to the outage.
Laurentian has already announced that all service fees charged to clients for the month of September will be reversed, and that normal hours will be extended this week.
“The bank has not quantified the financial impact of this outage, but we now expect it to be material at least for the current quarter,” Grauman wrote.
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TTC riders in Toronto’s downtown core now have access to 5G service.
In a Monday media release, representatives for Rogers said customers of all major Canadian wireless companies can connect to 5G to talk, text, and stream on Toronto’s subway system.
Service extends to all stations and tunnels in the downtown U (between Bloor-Yonge and Spadina, as well as Dupont Station), as well as in 13 stations between Keele and Castle Frank, plus the tunnels between St. George and Yonge stations.
The announcement comes a day earlier than anticipated, as the federal deadline given to Rogers to implement the extended service for all mobile customers was originally slated for Tuesday.
Rogers customers have had 5G connection in the aforementioned stations and tunnels since August, a decision that sparked ire in the telecommunications space, particularly from rivals Telus and Bell.
“Our dedicated team of technologists designed and introduced an immediate solution that added capacity, so Bell and Telus could join the network,” Ron McKenzie, chief technology and information officer for Rogers, said.
“For over 10 years, subway riders have been without mobile phone services and the Rogers team is pleased to step up and make 5G a reality for all riders today.”
In a statement shared with CP24, representatives for Telus said, “we are pleased to launch service for all our customers in connected TTC subway tunnels and stations. Now, TELUS customers can browse the Internet, talk and text, staying connected and safe on Toronto transit. We’ll be working hard to expand the number of stations and tunnels covered in the coming months.”
“We would like to thank Minister Champagne for his leadership in ensuring that all wireless carriers have the ability to serve their customers in Toronto’s subway system, and that Rogers can no longer delay the deployment of wireless service for all TTC riders regardless of their choice of carrier,” representatives for Bell shared in an afternoon statement.
“Bell looks forward to working collaboratively with our partners to build out the remainder of the TTC’s wireless network.”
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow responded to today’s news in a tweet.
“Happy to hear that all 3 major telecoms have unrolled service to downtown stations,” she wrote.
“The work continues to expand service to the rest of the TTC subway system. François-Philippe Champagne and I will work to make sure it happens quickly.”
CP24 and CTV News Toronto are owned by Bell Media.