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Stocks Slip as Powell Leans Into Hawkish Message: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell with bonds as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that higher rates would be needed to combat inflation, thwarting bets that the US central bank was nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

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The S&P 500 extended its slide into a third day, if the losses hold it will be the longest such losing streak since early May. FedEx Corp. tumbled after the economic bellwether’s outlook fell short of analyst consensus estimates on weakened demand. The Nasdaq 100 fell close to 1% as AI names weakened with Nvidia Corp. dropping 2.9%. Two-year Treasury yields, considered the most sensitive to interest rates, rose to 4.7%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his warning that higher rates are needed to combat inflation. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks,” he said in prepared remarks for his semi-annual report to Congress.

Policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at their meeting last week, their forecasts imply around two additional quarter-point rate hikes or one half-point increase. Since then, money markets have been attaching roughly 80% odds to a quarter percentage point hike in July.

“The Fed is content to champion the no cuts narrative as the primary messaging,” Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note. “Keeping July and September as live meetings is an effective way of distracting investors from their prior preoccupation with pricing in rate cuts by year end.”

The second-quarter stock rally has hit a wall as investors lose their enthusiasm amid crowded bullish positioning, narrow breadth, stretched valuations, and hawkish Fed signals.

“The positioning and the chasing is no longer likely to be the big tailwind that it was or the last six or seven weeks. That’s why, things go parabolic, they don’t do so in perpetuity,” Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, told Bloomberg Television. “If the right catalyst comes along, they tend to correct, at least partially. And I think we’re looking at a catalyst this week, which is potentially hawkish Fed Chair Powell.”

“The recent upside breakout in US equities has left many investors scratching their heads in search of fundamental justification,” according to Bank of America strategists including Nitin Saksena. “We see signs of an asset bubble in the making rather than a ‘rational’ rally.”

The dollar steadied, while the pound fell and Bitcoin rallied above $29,000.

Key events this week:

  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
  • Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
  • Rate decisions in UK, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Mexico, Philippines, Turkey, Thursday
  • US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, current account, existing home sales, Thursday
  • Fed’s Powell delivers testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
  • Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks Thursday
  • Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Friday
  • Japan CPI, Friday
  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 10:28 a.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4%
  • The MSCI World index fell 0.4%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0942
  • The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2738
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 142.11 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 4.1% to $29,331.83
  • Ether rose 3.1% to $1,839.65

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.78%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.44%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 4.43%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $72.19 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,939.70 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher and Denitsa Tsekova.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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