'Stop sugar coating things': Experts react to Bank of Canada rate hike - BNN Bloomberg | Canada News Media
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'Stop sugar coating things': Experts react to Bank of Canada rate hike – BNN Bloomberg

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The Bank of Canada hiked its benchmark overnight rate by 75 basis points to 3.25 per cent on Wednesday.

In a press release, the central bank said, “The effects of COVID-19 outbreaks, ongoing supply disruptions, and the war in Ukraine continue to dampen growth and boost prices.”

Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist at Desjardins, said he thinks the Bank of Canada needs to “stop sugar coating” the risk of a recession.

“I’m going to be looking to how honest the central bank is with Canadians as to what they can expect. We have the second highest private sector debt to GDP in the world so certainly our economy is more sensitive than many others to those interest rate increases,” Jean said in an interview Wednesday.

“I think it’s time for the Bank of Canada to stop sugar coating things and admit that we’re at elevated risk for a recession, and we do expect a recession, although a mild one, early in 2023.”

The BoC must stop sugar-coating, admit Canada has a higher recession risk than others: Economist

Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist at Desjardins, joins BNN Bloomberg to react to the latest interest rate decision out of the Bank of Canada. He says that it will take 6-8 quarters to see the full effects of rising rates, but the impact on the jobs market will start to show soon.

The central bank has two interest rate announcements scheduled before the end of the year, with the next decision set for October 26.

Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, said after Wednesday’s hike, he expects to see a smaller rate increase next month.

“The Bank of Canada remains concerned about the risk of high inflation expectations becoming entrenched, but with the economy now slowing sharply and inflation easing by more than the Bank expected, we still see scope for it to follow today’s 75 bp hike with a smaller 25 bp move in October,” Brown said in a note to clients Wednesday.

‘WILL NEED TO RISE FURTHER’

In the Bank of Canada’s release, it said “Given the outlook for inflation, the Governing Council still judges that the policy interest rate will need to rise further.”

Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC Economics, said this statement signalled the BoC pushing “back against calls for a pause after today’s hike.”

“That said, it hinted that the pace of rate hikes will slow going forward as it assess the impact of tightening thus far. Our forecast assumes one more 25 bp increase in October, though today’s meeting suggests upside risk to our call for the overnight rate to peak at 3.50 per cent,” Nye said in a note to clients Wednesday.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said the Bank of Canada’s tone in the statement shows it’s still “very concerned” about rising inflation.

“That leaves little doubt that further rate hikes are coming; the only question is how big will the next move be?” Reitzes said in a note to clients Wednesday.

“The door is wide open to allow the data to guide the next decision, but at this point, the tone of the statement remains very concerned about inflation.”   

Warren Lovely, chief rates strategist at National Bank of Canada, said there needs to be an “adult conversation” about getting inflation under control.

BoC warning us they’re not done yet with rate hikes: Warren Lovely

Warren Lovely, chief rates strategist with the National Bank of Canada, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the Bank of Canada’s fifth straight rate hike announced today. He says as other central banks are sacrificing economic activity to get inflation under control, Canadians will need to see some economic pain.

“The Bank of Canada, and I think to be clear, other central banks appear to be willing to sacrifice some economic activity to get inflation under control. Jay Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board just talked about economic pain and I think the same analogy may be applied here,” Lovely said in an interview Wednesday.

“When you’re in excess demand, when you have labour markets this tight, when inflation is this strong, getting it under control is going to require some painful medicine. We’ve taken quite a few doses already. I think there’s still perhaps another dose to come.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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