Most of Canada and the northern United States may see far less snow than average this winter thanks to a strong and persistent El Nino, U.S. forecasters say — if past years are any indication.
Officials at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) published a blog post last week looking at El Nino winters dating back to 1959, and found that the weather phenomenon generally leads to below-average snowfall across much of southern Canada and northern U.S. states.
The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and Great Lakes regions are particularly impacted, the analysis found, and have seen between 15 to 25 cm less snow between January and March compared to regular winters.
During so-called moderate or strong El Nino winters — like the kind forecast this year — the impact is even stronger.
“Stronger El Niño events tend to land a larger punch on our atmosphere, thus increasing the chance of seeing expected El Niño impacts,” the post reads.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every three to five years in which surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, causing changes in weather patterns around the world.
During the winter, El Nino sends a jet stream, which moves storm fronts, on an unusual path that is dominated by warmer and wetter Pacific air plunging south.
That means the southern U.S. typically sees above-average snowfall during an El Nino winter — yet total accumulations in those states are still unlikely to match the snowfall seen in the north. The CPC analysis also found northern Quebec and Labrador have seen up to 25 more cm of snow than average during the phenomenon.
Historically, snowfall in central U.S. states and Canadian provinces like Manitoba and Saskatchewan are largely unaffected by El Nino.
But every other province in the west and east, as well as the northern territories, have seen far less snow than average. Western British Columbia, southern Ontario and the Atlantic provinces have seen the biggest changes, the analysis found.
The data was taken from the Climate Data Store, which is supplied by the Copernicus climate satellite system owned by the European Union.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) already concluded last month that this winter will see a strong El Nino impact, bringing above-seasonal temperatures to much of the U.S. and other parts of the world.
The United Nations has said El Nino has been responsible for several extreme weather events in recent weeks, including heavy rains and flooding in Somalia and drought in South American countries like Brazil.
KITCHENER, Ont. – Prosecutors are arguing a man who stabbed a professor and two students in a University of Waterloo gender studies class last year should face a lengthy sentence because of the attack’s lasting impact on campus safety and security.
Federal prosecutor Althea Francis says a sentence in the upper range is appropriate not only because Geovanny Villalba-Aleman wanted to send a message about his views but also because he sought to make those with different beliefs feel unsafe.
The Crown has said it is seeking a sentence of 16 years for Villalba-Aleman, who pleaded guilty to four charges in the June 2023 campus attack.
The sentencing hearing for Villalba-Aleman began Monday and is expected to continue all week.
Federal prosecutors argued Tuesday that Villalba-Aleman’s statement to police, and a manifesto that was found on his phone, show his actions were motivated by ideology and meant to intimidate a segment of the population.
Villalba-Aleman pleaded guilty to two counts of aggravated assault, one count of assault with a weapon and one count of assault causing bodily harm.
A video of his statement to police was shown in court earlier in the sentencing hearing.
In the video, Villalba-Aleman told police he felt colleges and universities were imposing ideology and restricting academic freedom, and he wanted the attack to serve as a “wake-up call.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada cut its key policy interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday to bring it to 3.75 per cent. Here’s what people are saying about the decision:
“High inflation and interest rates have been a heavy burden for Canadians. With inflation now back to target and interest rates continuing to come down, families, businesses and communities should feel some relief.” — Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada governor.
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“Activity in Canada’s housing market has been sluggish in many regions due to higher borrowing costs, but today’s more aggressive cut to lending rates could cause the tide to turn quickly. For those with variable rate mortgages – who will benefit from the rate drop immediately – or those with fast-approaching loan renewals, today’s announcement is welcome news indeed.” — Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.
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“This won’t be the end of rate cuts. Even with the succession of policy cuts since June, rates are still way too high given the state of the economy. To bring rates into better balance, we have another 150 bps in cuts pencilled in through 2025. So while the pace of cuts going forward is now highly uncertain, the direction for rates is firmly downwards.” — James Orlando, director and senior economist at TD Bank.
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“The size of the December rate cut will depend on upcoming job and inflation data, but a 25 basis point cut remains our baseline.” — Tu Nguyen, economist with assurance, tax and consultancy firm RSM Canada.
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“Today’s outsized rate cut is mostly a response to the heavy-duty decline in headline inflation in the past few months. However, the underlying forecast and the Bank’s mild tone suggest that the future default moves will be 25 bp steps, unless growth and/or inflation surprise again to the downside.” — Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
