Strong election result for Sinn Fein throws Irish politics into uncertainty - CBC.ca | Canada News Media
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Strong election result for Sinn Fein throws Irish politics into uncertainty – CBC.ca

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Ireland faced political turmoil Sunday as an exit poll from the weekend’s parliamentary election suggested that Sinn Fein, a left-wing party committed to reunification of the island, finished in a virtual dead heat with the two parties that have governed since the country won independence almost a century ago.

While ballot counting remained underway, the poll indicated that Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s centrist Fine Gael party, centrist rival Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein all received about 22 per cent of first preference votes. The survey, conducted by pollster Ipsos MRBI for national broadcaster RTE, the Irish Times, TG4 television and University College Dublin, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.

The predicted outcome means some type of coalition government is almost inevitable, with Sinn Fein likely to be a central player in the negotiations to form one.

Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have until now refused to work with Sinn Fein because of its links to the Irish Republican Army. The centrist parties say Sinn Fein failed to repudiate the IRA’s role in the sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.

Jonathan Evershed, a postdoctoral researcher in government and politics at University College Cork, said the centrist parties’ resolve may weaken as politicians reckon with the reality of Sinn Fein’s strong showing.

“Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein but will face major pressure now to row back from that,” Evershed told The Associated Press. “Based on emerging numbers, there is no route to government that doesn’t involve working with Sinn Fein in one way or another.”

Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar arrives for the Irish general election count on Sunday. (Liam McBurney/PA via AP)

It is still unclear how many seats each party would have in Ireland’s 160-seat parliament, known as the Dail, because the country uses a proportional representation system known as the single transferable vote.

The system requires multiple rounds of counting as votes are redistributed based on voters’ second and third-choice preferences once candidates cross the threshold for election or are eliminated from consideration.

Early results reported Sunday evening showed Sinn Fein won 13 of the first 14 seats decided. The Green Party took the other.

Despite the closeness of the result forecast in the exit poll, Sinn Fein is in a weaker position than its two main rivals because it fielded only 42 candidates, limiting the number of seats it can win. That could make it difficult for Sinn Fein to find enough left-leaning allies among smaller parties and independents to form a workable government.

By contrast, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail ran multiple candidates in most constituencies and are likely to pick up more seats in parliament as votes are counted.

‘A government for the people’

Sinn Fein said it was ready to talk — to everyone but the two major parties — about forming a government.

“I want us to have a government for the people,” Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald said. “I want us to have, ideally, a government with no Fianna Fail or Fine Gael in it. I have started the contact with other parties to explore over the next days whether that is a possibility.”

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, whose origins lie on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war, share a broadly centrist outlook and have alternated holding power to govern Ireland over the decades.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald talks to the media at the count centre in Dublin on Sunday. (Peter Morrison/Associated Press)

Varadkar, 41, became Taoiseach — prime minister — in 2017 after the resignation of his predecessor. His party has governed Ireland since 2011, first in coalition with the smaller Labour Party and since 2016 as the leader of a minority administration with the tacit support of Fianna Fail.

But support for the two big parties has fallen since the 2008 global financial crisis, which hit the debt-fuelled “Celtic Tiger” economy particularly hard. Ireland was pushed to the brink of bankruptcy and forced to seek a humiliating international bailout that was followed by years of austerity.

That provided an opening for Sinn Fein, as frustration over the country’s housing shortage, soaring rents and a health-care system that has failed to keep up with rising demand became the central issues of the campaign.

While Fine Gael and Fianna Fail said they would build more houses, ease hospital overcrowding and cut waiting times for medical treatment, Sinn Fein offered a more radical plan to raise taxes on the wealthy, freeze rents, build tens of thousands of new homes and lower the state pension age.

But Sinn Fein’s historic role as the political wing of the IRA continue to haunt the party. The IRA was responsible for murders, bombings and other violence during the so-called Troubles in Northern Ireland, which claimed more than 3,500 lives over decades of conflict between forces that sought reunification with the Republic and those who wanted to remain part of the U.K.

Thomas Gould of Sinn Fein tops the poll and is elected in Cork North Central on Sunday. (Yui Mok/PA via AP)

Supporters of Sinn Fein point out that it’s been more than 20 years since the 1998 Good Friday agreement that helped end the bloodshed and 15 years since the IRA announced the end of its violent campaign. Sinn Fein already sits in government in the U.K. region of Northern Ireland as part of a power-sharing arrangement created by the peace process.

Sean Crowe, a Sinn Fein lawmaker from the Dublin Southwest constituency, said the party is willing to work with any party as long as they support a “Republican program for change.”

“There’s a huge responsibility on us,” he told reporters. “All those big issues that came up during the election, we said we would have a different approach, and we have a different approach than the main political parties, the establishment parties. It’s up to them now to come and call to us about forming the next government.”

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Moe visiting Yorkton as Saskatchewan election campaign continues

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Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to be on the road today as the provincial election campaign continues.

Moe is set to speak in the city of Yorkton about affordability measures this morning before travelling to the nearby village of Theodore for an event with the local Saskatchewan Party candidate.

NDP Leader Carla Beck doesn’t have any events scheduled, though several party candidates are to hold press conferences.

On Thursday, Moe promised a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected.

The NDP said the Saskatchewan Party was punching down on vulnerable children.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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Promise tracker: What the Saskatchewan Party and NDP pledge to do if they win Oct. 28

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:

Saskatchewan Party

— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.

— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.

— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.

— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.

— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.

— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.

— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults

— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.

— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.

— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.

— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.

NDP

— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.

— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.

— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.

— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.

— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.

— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.

— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.

— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.

— Scrap the marshals service.

— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.

— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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