Business

Strong Fuel Demand Boosts Oil Prices

Published

1 year ago

May 23, 2023

Strong demand for oil products is helping to drag oil prices higher, although the risk of a U.S. default and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting are the two major factors oil markets are watching.

– According to S&P Platts, global air travel has finally returned to pre-pandemic levels this month as total commercial flights per day averaged 105,682 in the first two weeks of May, up 20% year-on-year.

– Global jet fuel demand, however, is expected to remain below 2019 levels for now as efficiency gains and a slower rebound in long-haul travel, especially in Asia, limit the consumption upside for the fuel.

– IATA estimates that new airplanes trigger fuel efficiency gains of around 2% per year and the pandemic has seen a widespread drive to replace older aircraft.

– With international seat capacity now 10% below 2019 same-month levels, attesting to flights being on average shorter than before, a full jet fuel demand recovery to 8 million b/d isn’t expected until 2027.

Market Movers

– US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) agreed to buy shale producer PDC Energy (NASDAQ:PDCE) in a stock-and-debt deal worth 7.6 billion, adding 260,000 b/d of oil equivalent in output.

– Oil majors ENI (BIT:ENI) and Shell (LON:SHEL) might come under pressure again as Nigeria’s Bayelsa state claims it needs $12 billion to clean up decades-old oil spills, singling out the two companies as the main culprits.

– Brazil’s national oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) said that the second exploration well drilled in the Aram pre-salt block off Sao Paulo’s coast discovered commercial reserves of oil, boosting reserves.

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Oil products seem to be dragging crude out of the quagmire before the OPEC+ meeting, with the strength in US gasoline futures lifting WTI and Brent well above $72 and $76 per barrel, respectively. Should the ongoing debt ceiling talks between House of Representatives speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden lead to a deal that prevents a government shutdown we might see a brief spike in oil prices, although attention seems to be gradually moving towards the upcoming June OPEC+ meeting.

Saudi Energy Minister Goes on the Offensive. Speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that OPEC+ will remain proactive and that oil speculators betting on prices to fall will be “ouching” again just as they did in April if they don’t mend their ways.

Activists Lambast G7 Over Gas Investments. The recent G7 meeting in Japan’s Hiroshima included calls for more gas investments in the West to phase out dependency on Russian energy, angering climate activists that think the group is using the Ukraine war as an excuse for more fossil fuels.

OPEC Asks Ecuador to Rejoin its Ranks. Three years after its departure in 2019, Ecuador has been invited by OPEC to rejoin the ranks of the oil group as the country’s previous problem – exceeding agreed production quotas – became irrelevant as production started to stagnate.

Nigeria Launches Megarefinery, But Not Really. Nigeria’s outgoing president Muhammad Buhari commissioned the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery – set to become the continent’s largest and at a cost of 19 billion also the most expensive – but its real start-up is expected in late 2023, at best.

Germany to Keep on Subsidizing Power Prices. Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck stated Berlin plans to earmark some €4 billion annually to subsidize electricity prices for energy-intensive industries, capping power prices at 6 cents per KWh despite the Finance Ministry’s fierce opposition.

Australia Clinches US Critical Minerals Pact. Australia and the United States have agreed to treat the former’s domestic suppliers of critical minerals (such as lithium or rare earth metals) as domestic suppliers under the US Defense Production Act, as well as its hydrogen and ammonia companies.

Guyana Ups the Stakes in Exxon Row. After a Guyanese court ruled that US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) needs to provide additional insurance against potential oil spills, the Texas-based firm riposted it could halt production at its Liza One platform altogether if the court doesn’t backtrack.

China Invests into Kazakhstan’s Petchem. China’s state-owned oil company Sinopec (SHA:600028) agreed on terms with Kazakhstan to build a gas-based petrochemical complex in the country’s Atyrau region, with the 1.275 mtpa ethylene capacity plant expected to have an FID next year.

ADNOC Offers More of Its Logistics Arm. Reacting to what it described as significant investor demand, the UAE’s national oil company ADNOC will be offering a larger stake in the upcoming IPO of its logistics and shipping unit L&S, potentially raising up to $800 million from the public offering.

Argentina’s Shale Patch Disrupted by Strikes. SPGP, the largest oil union in Argentina, representing 25,000 workers in the country’s Vaca Muerta shale play, launched an indefinite strike to demand better working conditions, triggered by another incident that resulted in a worker’s amputated arm.

Norway’s Oil Major Halts Key Wind Project. Norway’s national oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) indefinitely postponed its planned Trollving floating offshore wind farm that was supposed to power its Troll and Oseberg oil fields, citing inadequate availability of technology and rising costs.

Yemen Signs First Post-War Oil Deal. Merely several weeks after a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, the Houthi-led government in Yemen signed a deal with China’s state-backed company AntonOil, seeking to produce 300,000 b/d of oil as the Middle Eastern country did before its protracted civil war.

Ford Shakes Up the Lithium Market. US carmaker Ford (NYSE:F) signed three long-term lithium supply agreements with Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), SQM (NYSE:SQM), and Nemaska Lithium, as lithium produced in the US or a country covered by a free trade agreement qualifies for IRA tax credit.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Business

TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

Published

3 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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Business

The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

Published

2 days ago

September 17, 2024

Nick Kossovan

File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

Why?

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

Clear writing = Clear thinking
Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
Pitches that are likely to get read
Social media content that stops thumbs
Human-sounding website copy
Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

Why?

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

Business

Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

Published

2 days ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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