Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of October 25, 2023 | Canada News Media
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Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of October 25, 2023

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Considerations for monetary policy

Governing Council members reflected on how recent economic developments could affect monetary policy. They revisited their discussion in September, when they decided to maintain the policy rate at 5%. At that time, the data received since July had shown more clearly that demand was slowing as monetary policy worked its way through the economy.

At the October meetings, members agreed that the evidence demonstrated further progress toward rebalancing the economy. Monetary policy continued to gain traction—excess demand was being absorbed, and price pressures were easing for many goods and services.

However, members acknowledged that the translation of weaker demand into lower price growth had been slow. The lack of downward momentum in underlying inflation was a source of considerable concern. They reflected again on the two possible explanations for this persistence: that the transmission of monetary policy actions through to inflation required more time, or that monetary policy was not yet restrictive enough to relieve price pressures.

Members discussed whether the stickiness in core inflation measures reflected the fact that excess demand remained in the system or that inflation could be becoming entrenched.

While the output gap indicated the economy was entering a period of excess supply, considerable uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Latent excess demand could explain why:

  • the labour market remained on the tight side
  • businesses continued to raise prices more often than normal
  • near-term inflation expectations remained elevated

Wage growth, if sustained at the current pace of 4% to 5%, would be inconsistent with restoring price stability. Members agreed they would be watching closely to see if higher labour costs began to be reflected in renewed inflationary pressures.

On corporate pricing behaviour, despite some progress toward normalization, many businesses were still reporting that they would raise prices more frequently than normal. Members expressed concern that businesses would:

  • be slower to pass on price decreases as input costs decline
  • increase their prices more rapidly in response to future shocks

Finally, members noted that while near-term inflation expectations remained elevated, they had been easing. Long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. Thus, current household spending and business decisions more likely reflected recent experiences with inflation rather than an acceptance that high inflation was here to stay.

As excess demand continues to be absorbed, persistence in core inflation, elevated inflation expectations and wage growth, and atypical corporate pricing behaviour could be indications of high inflation becoming entrenched. In such a scenario, members acknowledged that further monetary policy tightening would likely be required to restore price stability.

Members also discussed the implications of elevated shelter price inflation for monetary policy. Given that increasing the supply of housing enough to substantially narrow the shortfall will take time, shelter price inflation could continue to contribute more than normal to overall inflation for some time.

Finally, Governing Council also discussed the risk that the economy could slow more than expected. The outlook for GDP had been revised down from the July MPR, in part due to tighter financial conditions globally. If global financial conditions tighten further or past increases in the policy interest rate restrain demand more than expected, the economy could be weaker and inflation lower than projected.

Overall, Governing Council members agreed that monetary policy was working to lower demand and ease price pressures for many goods and services. They also agreed that as the economy moved into excess supply, past monetary policy tightening should continue to translate into lower inflation. However, with a higher near-term forecast for inflation and persistent core inflation, as well as the risk that rising global tensions could lead to higher oil prices or renewed supply chain disruptions, they agreed that overall inflationary risks had increased.

 

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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