An RBC economist expects a possible summer resurgence of the real estate market in Canada.
In a housing update, Robert Hogue of RBC Economics described the ravages being done by the COVID-19 pandemic on the residential property market as a “temporary shock”.
“We expect stronger activity to resume once social distancing orders are relaxed though there’s great uncertainty as to when this will happen,” Hogue wrote.
“Our baseline assumption is sometime in June,” Hogue continued in his April 15, 2020 market update.
According to Hogue, “exceptionally low interest rates will help spur the recovery”.
The Bank of Canada’s trendsetting interest rate currently sits at 0.25 per cent, described as the lowest in a decade.
The figure was the product of three interest rate cuts made by the central bank in March 2020 in a bid to bolster the economy.
On April 15, the Canadian Real Estate Association released a report indicating that home sales last month dropped by 14.3 percent compared to February of this year.
The CREA also reported that listings of homes for sale plunged 12.5 percent in March 2020 compared to February.
According to the national association of realtors, “economic turmoil and physical distancing rules surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic caused both buyers and sellers to increasingly retreat to the sidelines over the second half of the month”.
On the same day, the B.C. Real Estate Association released a report about how the pandemic has impacted the market in British Columbia.
“Provincial housing markets started the month very strong before the COVID-19 pandemic put a halt to activity,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson stated in a media release on April 15.
Realtors have been advised not to hold open houses in order to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.
According to CREA figures, home transactions fell 2.9 percent in the Greater Vancouver area in the month of March compared to February.
The drop was bigger at negative 13.6 percent in the Fraser Valley.
In his housing update, RBC economist Hogue said that the recovery of the Canadian real estate market will “crucially depend on the damage suffered by the labour market”.
According to Hogue, the unemployment rate is expected to “surge into double-digits in all provinces this month before easing gradually thereafter”.
“The longer unemployment stays high, the slower the housing market recovery will be. Our current view is the recovery will stretch into 2021 in most markets,” Hogue noted.
Hogue also said that the chances of a significant drop in prices are “still low”.
“Despite the rough patch ahead, we expect property values to generally hold up,” Hogue stated.
According to Hogue, the tight supply of housing in major markets will “provide some cushion against a correction”.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
