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Summers in Northern Hemisphere may last half the year by 2100: study – CTV News

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TORONTO —
A new study has found that summers in the Northern Hemisphere may last nearly six months by 2100, if efforts to combat climate change are not taken.

Researchers behind the study out of China warn that a longer summer season will likely have “far-reaching impacts” on agriculture, human health, and the environment.

The study, published Monday in peer-reviewed scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, reports that global warming is driving “dramatic and irregular” changes to the length and start dates of seasons, which may become more extreme in the future without efforts to mitigate climate change.

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“Summers are getting longer and hotter while winters shorter and warmer due to global warming,” Yuping Guan, lead author and physical oceanographer at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said in a press release.

According to the study, the researchers used historical daily climate data from 1952 to 2011 to measure changes in the four seasons’ length and onset in the Northern Hemisphere.

The study defines the start of summer as the onset of temperatures in the hottest 25 per cent during that time period. Winter, as defined in the report, is the onset of temperatures in the coldest 25 per cent.

The team then used climate change modelling data to predict how seasons will shift in the future.

The study found that summer extended from 78 to 95 days on average between 1952 to 2011, while winter shrank from 76 to 73 days. According to the study, spring and fall also shrank, from 124 to 115 days and 87 to 82 days, respectively.

The study also reported that spring and summer began earlier, while fall and winter started later. The Mediterranean region and the Tibetan Plateau experienced the greatest changes to their seasonal cycles, according to the report.

If these trends continue without any effort to lessen the effects of climate change, the authors predict that winter will last less than two months, and spring as well as fall will contract further by 2100.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND HEALTH RISKS

Studies have already shown that changes in the length of the seasons can cause significant environmental and health risks, including birds shifting their migration patterns and plants flowering at different times.

According to the study, these “phenological changes can create mismatches” between animals and their food sources, disrupting ecological communities. Researchers noted that seasonal changes can create issues for agriculture when a false spring or late snowstorm damages budding plants.

With longer growing seasons, the study reported that humans will breathe in more allergy-causing pollen, while disease-carrying mosquitoes will be able to travel and survive farther north.

Congwen Zhu, a monsoon researcher at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, said this shift in seasons may also result in more severe weather events.

Zhu, who was not involved in the study, said in the release that a hotter, longer summer will cause more “frequent and intensified high-temperature events” including heatwaves and wildfires.

Zhu added that warmer, shorter winters may also cause weather instability that leads to cold surges and major winter storms, much like February’s snowstorm in Texas.

Scott Sheridan, a climate scientist at Kent State University who was not a part of the study, said these extreme weather events are a “good overarching starting point” in understanding the implications of climate change on the seasons.

While Sheridan acknowledged that it is difficult to conceptualize a two or five degree yearly increase in temperature, he said “realizing that these changes will force potentially dramatic shifts in seasons probably has a much greater impact on how you perceive what climate change is doing.”

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April 20: Why this Indigenous researcher thinks we can do science differently and more… – CBC.ca

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Quirks and Quarks54:00Why this Indigenous researcher thinks we can do science differently, and more…


On this episode of Quirks & Quarks with Bob McDonald:

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This researcher wants a new particle accelerator to use before she’s dead

Quirks and Quarks9:05This researcher wants a new particle accelerator to use before she’s dead

Physicists exploring the nature of reality need ever more capable particle colliders, so they’re exploring a successor to the Large Hadron Collider in Europe. But that new machine is at least decades away. Tova Holmes, an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, is one of the physicists calling for a different kind of collider that can come online before the end of her career – or her life. This device would use a particle not typically used in particle accelerators: the muon.

A 2021 CERN file photo of the Large Hadron Collider inside the 27-kilometre tunnel near Geneva, Switzerland. The proposed new particle accelerator would require an even larger tunnel, one that’s over 100 kilometres. Physicists calling for the development of a muon accelerator say it will require much less space. (Samuel Joseph Hertzog/CERN)

Is venting the best way to deal with anger? The scientist says chill out.

Quirks and Quarks6:51Is venting the best way to deal with anger? The scientist says chill out

It turns out that acting out your anger might not be the best way to get rid of it. Sophie Kjaervik, a researcher at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Va., analyzed 154 studies of the different ways to deal with anger. Her results, published in the journal Clinical Psychology Review, suggest that techniques that reduce your heart rate and calm your mind are more effective than blowing off steam.


High intensity wildfires may release toxic forms of metals

Quirks and Quarks8:37High intensity wildfires may release toxic forms of metals

Wildfire smoke might be more dangerous than you think. A recent study in the journal Nature Communications found that when wildfires pass over soils or rocks rich in a normally harmless metal called chromium, it is transformed into a toxic form. The hotter and more intense the wildfire is, the more of this metal becomes toxic. Scott Fendorf, an Earth system science professor at Stanford University, said this study shows we should factor in the type of geology wildfires pass over to provide more targeted air quality warnings about smoke risks. 

A man sitting on a balcony with the backdrop of Montreal's skyline behind him is talking on the phone while wearing two masks: one surgical one still on his face and a black one that in this photo is pulled down below his chin.
A man wears a face mask as he cycles by the skyline of Montreal, Sunday, June 25, 2023. A smog warning is in effect for Montreal and multiple regions of the province due to forest fires. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

AI might help solve the problem of runaway conspiracy theories

Quirks and Quarks7:35AI might help solve the problem of runaway conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories seem to have multiplied in the internet era and so far, we haven’t had much luck in debunking these beliefs. The preliminary findings of a new study on PsyArXiv, a site for psychology studies that have yet to be peer-reviewed, suggests that artificial intelligence may have more success. Thomas Costello, a postdoctoral psychology researcher at MIT was the lead author on this study, and said their findings can provide a window into how to better debunk conspiracy beliefs. 

One eye takes up the entire frame and directly in the centre of their pupil, you see the reflection of the ChatGPT logo.
This illustration photograph taken with a macro lens shows The OpenAI company logo reflected in a human eye at a studio in Paris on June 6, 2023. ChatGPT is a conversational artificial intelligence software application developed by OpenAI. (Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images)

An Indigenous scientist explores the medicine the Earth needs

Quirks and Quarks19:12An Indigenous ecologist on why we need to stop and listen to save the planet

Earth day is April 22. And Earth is not in great shape to celebrate the day. Overheated, overpopulated, overexploited – we’re not being particularly careful with our planet. We talk to Indigenous ecologist Jennifer Grenz of the University of British Columbia about her new book, which is part memoir, part prescription for the medicine our planet needs – a compound of science and traditional wisdom.  Her book is Medicine Wheel for the Planet: A journey toward personal and ecological healing.

READ MORE: An Indigenous ecologist on why we need to stop and listen to save the planet

A shot of a woman wearing big green glasses outside, looking at a tree branch.
Jennifer Grenz is an Indigenous Ecologist and author of Medicine Wheel for the Planet: A journey toward personal and ecological healing. (Paulo Ramos/UBC)

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Dragonfly: NASA greenlights most important mission of the century – Earth.com

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In a remarkable development, NASA has given the green light to the Dragonfly mission, a revolutionary rotorcraft designed to investigate the complex chemistry of Saturn‘s moon Titan.

This confirmation allows the mission to proceed with the final design, construction, and testing of the spacecraft and its scientific instruments.

Deciphering the prebiotic chemistry on Titan

The Dragonfly mission, led by Dr. Melissa Trainer of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, will carry a cutting-edge instrument called the Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS).

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This powerful tool will help scientists delve into the intricate chemistry at work on Titan, potentially shedding light on the chemical processes that led to the emergence of life on Earth, known as prebiotic chemistry.

“We want to know if the type of chemistry that could be important for early pre-biochemical systems on Earth is taking place on Titan,” explains Dr. Trainer, a planetary scientist and astrobiologist specializing in Titan.

Titan: Dragonfly’s target

Titan, the largest moon of Saturn, is shrouded in a dense nitrogen-rich atmosphere, bears a striking resemblance to Earth in many ways. With a diameter of 5,150 kilometers, Titan is the second-largest moon in our solar system, surpassed only by Jupiter’s Ganymede.

Dense atmosphere and unique climate

One of Titan’s most distinctive features is its thick atmosphere, which is composed primarily of nitrogen and methane. This dense atmosphere creates a surface pressure 1.5 times higher than Earth’s, making it the only moon in our solar system with a substantial atmosphere.

The presence of methane in Titan’s atmosphere leads to a fascinating hydrological cycle, similar to Earth’s water cycle, but with methane as the primary liquid.

Titan’s surface is dotted with numerous lakes and seas of liquid hydrocarbons, predominantly methane and ethane. These liquid bodies, some of which are larger than the Great Lakes on Earth, are the result of Titan’s unique climate and atmospheric conditions.

The Cassini mission, which explored the Saturn system from 2004 to 2017, provided stunning images and data of these extraterrestrial lakes and seas.

Dragonfly mission to search Titan for prebiotic chemistry and life

The complex chemistry occurring on Titan’s surface and in its atmosphere has drawn significant attention from astrobiologists.

With its abundant organic compounds and the presence of liquid methane, Titan is considered a prime candidate for studying prebiotic chemistry and the potential for life to emerge in environments different from Earth.

Beneath Titan’s icy crust lies another intriguing feature: a global subsurface ocean of liquid water and ammonia. This ocean, which is believed to be salty and have a high pH, may potentially host microbial life.

The presence of this subsurface ocean, along with the unique chemistry on Titan’s surface, makes this moon a fascinating target for future exploration and scientific research.

Pushing the boundaries of rotorcraft exploration

Nicky Fox, associate administrator of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters, emphasized the significance of the Dragonfly mission, stating, “Exploring Titan will push the boundaries of what we can do with rotorcraft outside of Earth.”

Titan’s unique characteristics, including its abundant complex carbon-rich chemistry, interior ocean, and past presence of liquid water on the surface, make it an ideal destination for studying prebiotic chemical processes and the potential habitability of an extraterrestrial environment.

Innovative design and cutting-edge technology

The Dragonfly robotic rotorcraft will leverage Titan’s low gravity and dense atmosphere to fly between different points of interest on the moon’s surface, spanning several miles apart.

This innovative approach allows the entire suite of instruments to be relocated to new sites once the previous one has been thoroughly explored, providing access to samples from diverse geological environments.

DraMS, developed by the same team responsible for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite aboard the Curiosity rover, will analyze surface samples using techniques tested on Mars.

Dr. Trainer emphasized the benefits of this heritage, stating, “This design has given us an instrument that’s very flexible, that can adapt to the different types of surface samples.”

Dragonfly mission challenges and funding

The Dragonfly mission successfully passed its Preliminary Design Review in early 2023. However, due to funding constraints, the mission was asked to develop an updated budget and schedule.

The revised plan, presented and conditionally approved in November 2023, hinged on the outcome of the fiscal year 2025 budget process.

With the release of the president’s fiscal year 2025 budget request, Dragonfly is now confirmed with a total lifecycle cost of $3.35 billion and a launch date set for July 2028.

This reflects a cost increase of approximately two times the initially proposed cost and a delay of more than two years from the original selection in 2019.

Despite the challenges posed by funding constraints, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, and an in-depth design iteration, NASA remains committed to the Dragonfly mission.

Additional funding has been provided for a heavy-lift launch vehicle to shorten the mission’s cruise phase and compensate for the delayed arrival at Titan.

Rigorous testing and validation

To ensure the success of the Dragonfly mission, researchers on Earth have conducted extensive testing and validation of the designs and models for the nuclear-powered, car-sized drone.

The mission team has carried out test campaigns at NASA’s Langley Research Center, utilizing the Subsonic Tunnel and the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) to validate computational fluid dynamics models and gather data under simulated Titan atmospheric conditions.

Ken Hibbard, Dragonfly mission systems engineer at APL, emphasized the importance of these tests, stating, “All of these tests feed into our Dragonfly Titan simulations and performance predictions.”

As the Dragonfly mission progresses, it marks a new era of exploration and scientific discovery. Dr. Trainer expressed her excitement, saying, “Dragonfly is a spectacular science mission with broad community interest, and we are excited to take the next steps on this mission.”

Turning science fiction into fact with the Dragonfly mission

In summary, the Dragonfly mission embodies the essence of human curiosity and the relentless pursuit of knowledge. As NASA prepares to send this revolutionary rotorcraft to the alien world of Titan, we stand on the brink of a new era of exploration and discovery.

With its innovative design, cutting-edge technology, and the unwavering dedication of the mission team, Dragonfly will unlock the secrets of prebiotic chemistry and shed light on the potential for life beyond Earth.

As we eagerly await the launch of this titanic mission, we can only imagine the wonders that await us on Saturn’s enigmatic moon. The Dragonfly mission is a testament to the indomitable human spirit and our boundless capacity to push the frontiers of knowledge.

In the words of Ken Hibbard, “With Dragonfly, we’re turning science fiction into exploration fact,” and that fact will undoubtedly inspire generations to come.

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Marine plankton could act as alert in mass extinction event: UVic researcher – Langley Advance Times

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A University of Victoria micropaleontologist found that marine plankton may act as an early alert system before a mass extinction occurs.

With help from collaborators at the University of Bristol and Harvard, Andy Fraass’ newest paper in the Nature journal shows that after an analysis of fossil records showed that plankton community structures change before a mass extinction event.

“One of the major findings of the paper was how communities respond to climate events in the past depends on the previous climate,” Fraass said in a news release. “That means that we need to spend a lot more effort understanding recent communities, prior to industrialization. We need to work out what community structure looked like before human-caused climate change, and what has happened since, to do a better job at predicting what will happen in the future.”

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According to the release, the fossil record is the most complete and extensive archive of biological changes available to science and by applying advanced computational analyses to the archive, researchers were able to detail the global community structure of the oceans dating back millions of years.

A key finding of the study was that during the “early eocene climatic optimum,” a geological era with sustained high global temperatures equivalent to today’s worst case global warming scenarios, marine plankton communities moved to higher latitudes and only the most specialized plankton remained near the equator, suggesting that the tropical temperatures prevented higher amounts of biodiversity.

“Considering that three billion people live in the tropics, the lack of biodiversity at higher temperatures is not great news,” paper co-leader Adam Woodhouse said in the release.

Next, the team plans to apply similar research methods to other marine plankton groups.

Read More: Global study, UVic researcher analyze how mammals responded during pandemic

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