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Super Bowl LV: Expert picks and predictions – Sportsnet.ca

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It seemed in doubt so many times, but we made it — the big game has arrived.

With Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs set to face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, Sportsnet’s expert panel is ready to weigh in on who will win the day, and who will walk away empty handed.

The panel includes editors Geoff Lowe and Craig Battle, fantasy analyst Andy McNamara, and staff writers Donnovan Bennett, Emily Sadler and Mike Johnston.

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So who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?

Donnovan Bennett
The Pick:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Score: 34–22
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes

The Breakdown: Eighteen years, 45 days. That’s the age difference between the starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl, the largest discrepancy in NFL history.

Patrick Mahomes is looking for his second championship, and first since turning 26. Brady is looking for his seventh, and first since turning 40. Mahomes’ teams are averaging 34.1 points per game in his playoff starts, the highest ever with a minimum of five games played. Mahomes has won his last 12 starts going back to mid-October, and is 26-1 going back to Week 11 of last season.

Not only is the Baby Goat better than the GOAT at this point of their careers — his team is better also. The final passing of the torch to the Mahomes era will officially take place Sunday.

Mike Johnston
The Pick:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Score: 30–26
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes

The Breakdown: My 2021 Superb Owl pick is the Northern Hawk Owl, known for using its short and pointed wings to fly/glide close to the ground at high speeds… sort of like how Tyreek Hill manoeuvres his five-foot-10 frame around a field unlike anyone else in the sport.

That’s partly why my 2021 Super Bowl pick is the Chiefs. Hill can burn you by himself or can be used as the most effective decoy in football — either way, it’s to KC’s benefit.

Andy McNamara
The Pick:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Score: 32–28
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady

The Breakdown: Like Hulk Hogan versus The Rock at WrestleMania 18, this Super Bowl showdown is also a battle between the GOAT (Tom Brady) and current top star (Patrick Mahomes). The game is essentially a pick’em with Kansas City as a 3.0-point favourite, but I think Tom Brady has that immeasurable drive — the “it” factor to prove the world wrong — that will push him over the top.

Brady is a rhythm quarterback, which means timing is vital to the offence operating successfully. The last four games of the regular season and into the playoffs we saw Tampa Bay really gel.

Think about what TB12 had to overcome to get back to the dance: He had next to no off-season with his new teammates; his star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin battled injuries early on; Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski had to shake off rust. The Bucs worked through it all to the tune of a 19-4 TD-INT ratio for Brady in his last seven outings.

Of course, Mahomes and his plethora of weapons are lethal against any defence, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Bucs try to pressure the reigning Super Bowl MVP as they lead the league in post-season sacks.

I would be shocked if SBLV was decided by more than a single score. In the end, Brady slaps Father Time in the mouth one more time and holds off the Chiefs’ emerging dynasty run.

Emily Sadler
The Pick:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Score: 32–28
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes

The Breakdown: A shootout in the first half between the GOAT and the heir to the NFL throne could put this matchup on pace to be the highest-scoring Super Bowl in history.

At least, that’s what we want to happen.

More likely, though, it might be a slow start for Mahomes & Co. — something we’ve seen from this club quite a bit this year and last. Up against a dangerous defence, the Chiefs’ offence could be forced to toil its way up the field and grind things out… until late in the game, when Mahomes exploits a tired Buccaneers front four and takes hold of this game like we all know he can.

The result will be a defensive battle that blossoms into an offensive affair late in the third quarter and a thrilling finish that sees the Chiefs defend their title against King Brady in his own castle.

Geoff Lowe
The Pick:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Score: 24–20
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady

The Breakdown: It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offence after the deadly display we all witnessed in the AFC title game against the Bills, but the Buccaneers have two things going for them that Buffalo did not: 1) Tom Brady under centre, and 2) a dominant defensive line that can take advantage of a Chiefs offensive line built mostly of backups.

Stopping Mahomes altogether is seemingly impossible, something Tampa knows all too well after losing to Kansas City earlier this season. Containing Mahomes, however, could build a path to victory for the Buccaneers if their defensive line is able to get the best of the banged-up Chiefs offensive line – something the Bucs were able to do against the Packers in the NFC title game that led to five sacks of Aaron Rodgers.

With that in mind, we set the scene for Sunday night:

Tampa’s defensive line does its job in limiting Kansas City to one of its lowest point totals of the entire season, and then it’s Brady’s time to shine.

Despite keeping Mahomes and the Chiefs offence largely in check, the Bucs face a three-point deficit as time winds down in the fourth quarter. Brady and Tampa’s offence get the ball down 20-17 with sights set on snatching victory from the hands of Mahomes. TB12 leads the Bucs down the field methodically, including a couple of tight third-down conversions, and with the game on the line and less than a minute on the clock, Brady finds – who else? – his old pal Rob Gronkowski in the back of the end zone to complete the game-winning drive, Brady’s seventh on the Super Bowl stage.

Another chapter is added to the legend of Tom Brady, as the GOAT wins his seventh Super Bowl title and first without Bill Belichick by his side.

Craig Battle
The Pick:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Score: 34–23
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes

The Breakdown: Tom Brady is an ageless wonder, and Tampa is a good team on a nice roll. But they caught every possible break in the NFC Championship Game — including a once-in-a-lifetime screwup by the Packers secondary at the end of the first half and a series of gaffes from the Green Bay coaching staff — and it still went down to the wire.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is a dynasty in the making. They’ve barely lost in the past two years, and just thoroughly outclassed a very strong Bills team two weeks back.

It’s one game, anything can happen, I wouldn’t be shocked if the ball bounced Tampa’s way, and I don’t like betting against Brady. But one of these teams is the best in football, and the other isn’t.

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Auston Matthews denied 70th goal as depleted Leafs lose last regular-season game – Toronto Sun

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“He’s played so tremendously well. There’s been a lot of focus on the pursuit of 70, but you lose sight of how he’s played. The last two games, give him those types of chances and he might have got 75. It’s okay. Sixty-nine is still damn good. There are more great things to come.”

Kucherov collected his 100th assist as part of a three-goal Lightning second period that helped build its five-goal lead. Those breakdowns did get under Matthews’ skin.

“The second wasn’t good enough in our end, definitely not how we want be playing going into the post-season. I don’t think we can just think we’re going to just turn it on come Saturday. But the third (three late goals by TJ Brodie, Pontus Holmberg and John Tavares) showed signs of life and playing to the final whistle.

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“Now it’s the important part of the season and we turn our focus to Boston.”

Until the second period it seemed Kucherov might be denied, too. On an earlier power play, Jones made a huge save on Brayden Point that would’ve been his hundredth helper, while Steve Stamkos hit the post on another feed.

But the Leafs kept playing with fire. When Connor Timmins over-reacted after a crease scrum with Matt Dumba and got an extra two, Kucherov set up Point in the slot and the extended home celebration began. McDavid and Kucherov getting to triple figures became the first duo since Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux in 1988-89.

Matthews’ close calls included his 20th post/crossbar, an unofficial league record. He had seven shots in the first period alone with Lightning back-up Matt Tomkins coming up as big as Andrei Vasilevskiy. Matthews, without Max Domi on his line the past couple of games, ended the ‘23-24 campaign with 107 points.

Before the game, Tampa coach John Cooper said the pure fan in him wanted both Kucherov and Matthews to reach their milestones.

“If (Matthews does it), I’ll take solace that 69 times before that, no one else could stop him.”

Kucherov changed the narrative by scoring in the first period to increase his lead in the Art Ross Trophy race to 144 on McDavid who was playing out the schedule in Arizona.

GAME ON

Three ailing forwards legitimately needed Wednesday off for Game 1 recovery time, Domi (undisclosed), Bobby McMann (lower body) and Calle Jarnkrok (hand) were in the stands, with Keefe listing the trio as “possibilities” to play Saturday … Defencemen Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Joel Edmundson didn’t play in Tampa, replaced by Tuesday scratches Mark Giordano, Timmins and Brodie … There were duelling “MVP” chants among fans of Matthews and Kucherov, only two candidates in a crowded field … Jones deserved better from the team in front of him in what might be his last appearance of the year. That said, Samsonov should get the chance to carry his excellent second half into playoffs … If there are any health issues Saturday, Ryan Reaves (with Toronto’s first goal) and Noah Gregor proved themselves effective as individual fill-ins or as a unit … Brodie ended a 111-game scoring slump with his goal, though he was hoping Matthews was closer to the net for a tip … Among the poor attention to detail on Wednesday, Tyler Bertuzzi dropping a puck meant for Matthews that became Nick Paul’s opening goal and a breakaway for Brandon Hagel after William Nylander chose not to play a puck off a Toronto high stick. It allowed Calvin de Haan to wait for the Leafs to leave open ice for Hagel … The Leafs had not lost four straight since early January.

LOOSE LEAFS

Matthews is the Leafs nominee for the King Clancy Memorial Trophy for leadership qualities on and off the ice. Matthews does a lot of work with the Hospital For Sick Children that he keeps low key … Matthews’ flurry of shots on Wednesday moved him to 2,273, past Bob Pulford into sixth place in Leaf history … Leafs assistant to the GM Shane Doan was one of the many former Coyotes who flew in for Wednesday’s last home game before the move to Salt Lake City … Matt Murray made 24 saves in the Marlies 3-1 loss in Rochester on Wednesday.

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The Twisted Irony of the Jontay Porter Scandal – The Ringer

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Jontay Porter couldn’t resist the temptation to gamble. Neither can the NBA.

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

There is a twisted irony to the situation Jontay Porter finds himself in. I’ll get to that. But first, if you’ll indulge me, here’s a eulogy of sorts.

From a young age, Jontay molded his game in the shadow of his oldest brother, Michael, who was one of the most spellbinding scorers I’d ever seen at the high school level. Less than 18 months younger, he was a perfect complement. Where Michael was a brash and athletic scoring machine, Jontay was a floorbound passing savant. His game was exceptionally mature, intelligent, and nuanced. He was a pick-and-pop threat from 3, a whip-smart communicator on defense, and a distribution hub as a big man. On the court, Jontay was his older brother’s keeper. They’ve both been snakebitten in their own way: three spinal surgeries for Michael, two major knee surgeries for Jontay. But where Michael would eventually find his footing with the defending champion Denver Nuggets, Jontay had largely found himself aimless in the wilderness until this season.

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Signed to a two-way contract with the Toronto Raptors back in December, Porter, fully healthy for the first time in his professional career, showed flashes of the player he was meant to be at the highest level. The craft and spatial awareness he demonstrated in setting screens, combined with his exemplary passing vision, made him an immediate threat in dribble-handoff situations. (I may or may not have made a few irresponsible Marc Gasol comparisons in some group chats.) In the final game of his NBA career, Porter logged eight assists in under 21 minutes—only 24 other centers across all of NBA history have accomplished a comparable feat. In the 37 games he played—and will ever play—in the NBA, Jontay had a career assist-to-turnover ratio of 2-to-1.

There’s the irony. On the floor, he’d always been a good decision-maker.

But a series of dubious choices off the court has brought him to this landmark moment in modern sports disgrace. On Wednesday, less than a month after the NBA opened an investigation into “betting irregularities” related to Porter, he was given a lifetime ban from the league for a litany of infractions. Porter is the first player to receive a permanent ban for offenses not tied to the NBA’s substance abuse policy since 1966, when Roger Brown and Connie Hawkins were banned due to their association with a 1961 NCAA point-shaving scandal. The Porter investigation revealed that from January to March of this year, Porter had placed at least 13 bets (none involved games in which he had played) through a friend’s account, with wagers ranging from $15 to $22,000. He’d bet against his own team on three separate occasions in multi-game parlays, each time betting that the Raptors would lose—he did not hit on any of those parlays, though it’s unclear whether that was the result of any Raptors victories. (There weren’t many in that three-month span.) Porter’s bets totalled $54,094; he was paid $76,059, a net gain less than the highest single bet he’d placed.

The most egregious offense occurred on March 20, prior to that night’s game between the Raptors and Kings, wherein Porter “disclosed confidential information about his own health status to an individual known to be an NBA bettor.” Another one of Porter’s associates had placed an $80,000 parlay on Porter-specific prop bets for that game, betting the unders—which promised to yield winnings of $1.1 million if it hit. Such a high-value bet placed on a middling role player was immediately flagged as suspicious by licensed sports betting operators and reported to the league. (As such, the bet was frozen and did not pay out.) Jontay played a total of two minutes and 43 seconds against the Kings that night before sitting for the rest of the game, citing illness.

Porter’s gambling proclivity didn’t arise out of the blue. He began investing in cryptocurrencies in college. He has operated a social media account sharing stock and crypto trading tips since September 2020, claiming to be the cofounder of a swing trading advice service and community—the kind of get-rich-quick echo chambers on Discord that have become a dime a dozen since the early days of the pandemic, exploding in popularity after the fabled short squeeze on GameStop stock. (Porter once tweeted about the service from his main account, two days after the initial GameStop short squeeze happened on January 22, 2021.)

But for someone whose main hobby and side hustle was hawking notions of financial freedom and literacy, his recent actions (and those of his associates) didn’t exactly reflect much of the latter. There may be different mechanisms at play between sports betting and stock trading, but ultimately, both are heavily influenced by transaction volume in the market—factoring liquidity risk is one of the very fundamental elements of understanding how any of this even works. Knowing that, one would never try to get away with a $80,000 parlay wager in a justifiably barren market on a fringe player coming off the bench for a tanking Raptors team. According to the league’s report, Porter—who clearly knew the trendline of his numbers, having logged at least 20 minutes per game in the previous four contests—intentionally manipulated the game and his place in it. All for the opportunity to win $1.1 million, less than the salary he made playing 11 games for the Grizzlies in 2021. On a literal bet against himself. It’s human to minimize one’s own sense of worth. It’s something else entirely to treat yourself like shitcoin.

But that is the byproduct of making sports betting as accessible as it’s become—it fuels impulses, which beget more betting. You can lock in a bet faster than you can process the consequences. You can’t see the analytical mainframe monitoring every transaction in the country from the parlay builder interface on your phone. You only see the numbers you want to see. It’s not hard to see how people grow addicted. Yet, it wasn’t long ago that the NBA fought against legalized gambling. Back in 2012, the big four American sports leagues and the NCAA sued New Jersey over a bill that would legalize sports betting within the state; they’d sue New Jersey again in 2014. Legalizing sports betting, the leagues claimed, “undermines the public’s faith and confidence in the character of amateur and professional team sports.”

But then, something changed. That same year, in 2014, the NBA struck a strategic partnership deal with FanDuel, which included an equity stake—back then, FanDuel was purely a daily fantasy sports operation, which granted it exemption from the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, as fantasy sports were given specific clearance. Days after the FanDuel announcement, Silver, then in his first year as NBA commissioner, published a New York Times op-ed titled “Legalize and Regulate Sports Betting.” The writing was on the wall, and the NBA would be the first to get in on the ground floor. In the ensuing 10 years, the cognitive dissonance that has arisen from legalized gambling and its interfacing with professional sports coverage has been so all-consuming as to render as white noise. (Speaking of: This story is brought to you by The Ringer, a FanDuel partner.)

The Porter decision is exactly what the NBA had dreaded—and hoped for—when it got into business with the sports betting entities that be. The legalization of sports betting was seen as a way to install and uphold measures that would be able to monitor market volume on a global scale and address glaring discrepancies while bringing the action out into the open. From that standpoint, the NBA can conveniently view this situation as a proof of concept in preserving the integrity of the game and of the legal betting industry as a whole. A lifetime ban for gambling and compromising the integrity of the game is firm and unambiguous. That the watershed ruling could be levied against an aspirant like Porter rather than an established star meant that the decision would largely come without rancor from fans. It was a no-brainer. Though it begs the question of how other more morally heinous offenses have been handled with relative leniency, the answer is as it’s always been: The NBA is a business, and its express duty is to expand and protect its business interests above all else. The lack of ambiguity in that regard speaks for itself.

Porter will be immortalized as an example and a punchline. There will surely be others, whether in the NBA or another major league, who will see the half-steps that Jontay took and apply revisions more deftly. The allure is ever-present. And for players at the bottom of the pecking order looking up, it must be difficult to tame the sense of desperation in keeping a dream alive, however possible. I haven’t been able to stop wondering about the person behind the news cycle, and the decisions he’s made that have culminated in this. He thought about quitting the game back in 2022, as detailed in a Sportsnet profile published in early January. During his brief stint with the Memphis Grizzlies from 2020 to 2022, he was taking “several ibuprofen” before games to deal with the pain in his knees. It’s a familiar ailment in the family: In addition to Michael’s surgeries, both of his sisters at one point or another were forced into medical retirement from playing basketball at Mizzou due to knee issues—his older sister Bri had five ACL tears across high school and college.

My mind goes back to March 2019 and a story I read about that night. Jontay was at the Denver Nuggets practice facility, watching his brother Michael play one-on-one against a friend. Less than five months removed from tearing his ACL and MCL on a freak landing during a scrimmage, he was itching to play. He had been a potential one-and-done first-round prospect in the 2018 NBA draft, but opted to stick around at Mizzou to bolster his stock, only to suffer the setback. The knee surgery was a disappointment, but Jontay was on track to be game-ready by draft night in 2019. In fact, he had been scheduled for a checkup a few days earlier in March to receive clearance to run and jump, but had to cancel the appointment due to the bomb cyclone blizzard that produced nearly a foot of snow in Denver. At that moment, he felt fine. And he was going to get cleared anyway. So he joined in. “I guess just competitive nature took over,” Porter told The Kansas City Star. “I wasn’t really thinking about my knee. I kind of went for it. I felt invincible.”

As the intensity ramped up in a one-on-one against Michael, Jontay felt his knee pop. “Why would you play?” Michael screamed at him, according to the Star article. By the end of March, Jontay would have his second knee surgery in less than six months. An irrational impulse altered the trajectory of his career forever. Five years later, nearly to the day of his second surgery, another would destroy his career completely.

“I’m only going to be out a year,” Porter told the Star back in 2019. “I have so much time to invest in other things. At the end of the day I can’t be upset about one year being taken away from me.”

How about a lifetime?

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Raptors reserve Jontay Porter might have thought he was smarter than the system. The NBA says he wasn't – Toronto Star

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Jontay Porter had potential, but then, a lot of people have potential, don’t they? Porter’s particular potential was his ability to play a sport where being halfway competent can easily net you $10 million (U.S.) per year, which is a gift, if you treat it carefully. Porter apparently did not.

Porter was given a lifetime suspension from the NBA on Wednesday, with the league concluding he had bet on basketball, influenced insider bets on basketball, and intentionally underperformed to influence betting.

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