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Supply shortages and emboldened workers: A changed economy – Los Angeles Times

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Employees at a fast-food restaurant in Sacramento, exasperated over working in stifling heat for low wages, demanded more pay and a new air conditioner — and got both.

Orders poured in to an Italian auto supplier, which struggled to get hold of enough supplies of everything from plastic to microchips to meet the demand.

A drought in Taiwan magnified a worldwide shortage of computer chips, so vital to auto and electronics production.

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The global economy hadn’t experienced anything like this for decades. Maybe ever.

After years of ultra-low inflation, prices rocketed in 2021 — at the grocery store, the gasoline pump, the used-car lot, the furniture store.

U.S. workers, having struggled for years to achieve economic gains, demanded better wages, benefits and working conditions — and were willing to quit if they didn’t get them.

Global supply chains that ran efficiently for years broke down as factories, ports and freight yards buckled under the weight of surging orders.

Propelled by vast infusions of government aid and the widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, the world economy’s bounce-back was as startling as the fall that preceded it. Policymakers were caught off guard by both the speed of the recovery and the new COVID variants that threatened it.

Back from the brink

In spring 2020, the global economy stood at the brink of a catastrophe. The spread of COVID-19 forced lockdowns, frightened people into hunkering down at home, paralyzed ordinary business activity.

In June that year, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the global economy would shrink 4.9% in 2020.

But the governments of the wealthiest nations, scarred by the slow recovery from the financial crisis just over a decade earlier, poured money into rescuing their economies. The United States was particularly aggressive: It supplied $5 trillion in COVID-related aid.

Stimulus helped stave off disaster. The global economy did shrink in 2020 — but only by 3.1%. The IMF now expects record 5.9% growth for 2021.

Beginning this year, vaccines accelerated the return to something closer to ordinary pre-pandemic life.

Still, the virus itself has continued to complicate the recovery. Infections over the summer, for instance, sent Japan’s economy into a tailspin: It shrank from July through September at a 3.6% annual rate.

Likewise, America’s recovery lost momentum once the highly contagious Delta variant erupted over the summer. Growth slowed to a 2.1% annual rate from July through September from 6.7% in the April-June quarter and 6.3% in the January-March period.

Overall, though, the economy has recovered with surprising vigor. In June 2020, with the economy still reeling, the Federal Reserve forecast that unemployment would average 9.3% in the final three months of the year and 6.5% at the end of 2021. In reality? The jobless rate plummeted from 11.1% in June 2020 to 6.7% by year’s end. It’s now at 4.2%.

Overwhelmed

In some ways, it’s been too much of a good thing.

Robust demand, especially for autos, appliances and other physical goods, overwhelmed global manufacturers. Factories couldn’t obtain enough raw materials and parts. Ports and freight yards were swamped.

The supply chain problems have been compounded by the unexpected — a drought in Taiwan that curtailed production at water-dependent computer chip plants, a February deep freeze that paralyzed petrochemical production in Texas, a huge container ship getting stuck in the Suez Canal and cutting off shipping between Asia and Europe.

Pointing to a 40% reduction in ships anchored off Los Angeles and Long Beach, port officials say new rules are helping with the supply chain backlog and local air quality. But it all depends what you’re counting.

Companies grappled with shortages of everything they needed, notably workers.

At the Gotham restaurant in Manhattan, for instance, patrons can’t find handcrafted chocolates, once a big draw for the holidays, or grab a burger or order oysters. Gotham couldn’t find enough employees to make the chocolates, work the grill or shuck the oysters.

Across the Atlantic, MTA, an auto components manufacturer that endured Italy’s first lockdown in February 2020, reopened within a week and ended 2020 with unexpectedly healthy business. But the recovery bred new troubles.

“Everything is lacking,” said Maria Vittoria Falchetti, the company’s marketing chief. “Plastic is lacking. Metals are lacking. Paper is lacking. Microchips — don’t even mention.’’

South of Shanghai, Kaixiang Electric Appliance Co., which makes LED lamps and flashlights in Ningbo, paid 20% more in 2021 for labor, materials and complications resulting from shipping bottlenecks. “The current delay in delivery is about one or two months,” said Susan Yang, chief executive of the 80-employee company.

The supply chain bottlenecks have driven up costs, contributing to a problem that most rich countries hadn’t had to endure for years: high inflation. The IMF expects consumer prices in advanced economies to rise 2.8% this year. That would be the highest such rate since 2008.

Last month, U.S. consumer prices shot up 6.8% from 12 months earlier — the biggest year-over-year increase since 1982.

At a Mobil station in Yonkers, N.Y., Mario Bodden, a project manager at a nearby mall, said it cost $50 to fill up, instead of the $35 he was used to. “You start thinking: Do I go shopping? Do I fill it up today?” Bodden said.

A made-in-America labor shortage

Even while absorbing higher prices, workers, especially in America, were benefiting from a tighter labor market that gave them leverage to secure better pay and benefits.

The United States, in particular, experienced acute labor shortages. At the depths of the pandemic recession in spring 2020, employers had slashed 22 million jobs. When the economy bounced back, they scrambled to recall laid-off workers — or find new ones. In September and October, employers listed a record 1.4 job openings for every unemployed American.

In Europe, by contrast, governments essentially paid companies to keep workers on their payrolls, making it “much more seamless to reopen the economies in Europe because basically people just went back to their old job,” said Jacob Kirkegaard of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

U.S. workers have used their leverage to press for higher wages and better working conditions. Frito-Lay workers went on strike in July to protest mandatory overtime. At Deere & Co., thousands struck in the fall — and won 10% raises.

At a Jack in the Box restaurant in Sacramento, workers walked off the job to protest working conditions, including an air conditioner that constantly broke down and forced them to toil in 100-degree heat. In response, the restaurant installed a new air conditioner and raised wages $1.25 an hour.

“Every little bit helps,” said one of the workers, Leticia Reyes.

Associated Press writers Anne D’Innocenzio, Mae Anderson, Cathy Bussewitz, Tom Krisher, Colleen Barry, Joe McDonald, Christopher Rugaber, David McHugh and David Koenig contributed to this report.

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Nigeria's Economy, Once Africa's Biggest, Slips to Fourth Place – Bloomberg

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Nigeria’s economy, which ranked as Africa’s largest in 2022, is set to slip to fourth place this year and Egypt, which held the top position in 2023, is projected to fall to second behind South Africa after a series of currency devaluations, International Monetary Fund forecasts show.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook estimates Nigeria’s gross domestic product at $253 billion based on current prices this year, lagging energy-rich Algeria at $267 billion, Egypt at $348 billion and South Africa at $373 billion.

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IMF Sees OPEC+ Oil Output Lift From July in Saudi Economic Boost – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund expects OPEC and its partners to start increasing oil output gradually from July, a transition that’s set to catapult Saudi Arabia back into the ranks of the world’s fastest-growing economies next year. 

“We are assuming the full reversal of cuts is happening at the beginning of 2025,” Amine Mati, the lender’s mission chief to the kingdom, said in an interview in Washington, where the IMF and the World Bank are holding their spring meetings.

The view explains why the IMF is turning more upbeat on Saudi Arabia, whose economy contracted last year as it led the OPEC+ alliance alongside Russia in production cuts that squeezed supplies and pushed up crude prices. In 2022, record crude output propelled Saudi Arabia to the fastest expansion in the Group of 20.

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Under the latest outlook unveiled this week, the IMF improved next year’s growth estimate for the world’s biggest crude exporter from 5.5% to 6% — second only to India among major economies in an upswing that would be among the kingdom’s fastest spurts over the past decade. 

The fund projects Saudi oil output will reach 10 million barrels per day in early 2025, from what’s now a near three-year low of 9 million barrels. Saudi Arabia says its production capacity is around 12 million barrels a day and it’s rarely pumped as low as today’s levels in the past decade.

Mati said the IMF slightly lowered its forecast for Saudi economic growth this year to 2.6% from 2.7% based on actual figures for 2023 and the extension of production curbs to June. Bloomberg Economics predicts an expansion of 1.1% in 2024 and assumes the output cuts will stay until the end of this year.

Worsening hostilities in the Middle East provide the backdrop to a possible policy shift after oil prices topped $90 a barrel for the first time in months. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will gather on June 1 and some analysts expect the group may start to unwind the curbs.

After sacrificing sales volumes to support the oil market, Saudi Arabia may instead opt to pump more as it faces years of fiscal deficits and with crude prices still below what it needs to balance the budget.

Saudi Arabia is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to diversify an economy that still relies on oil and its close derivatives — petrochemicals and plastics — for more than 90% of its exports.

Restrictive US monetary policy won’t necessarily be a drag on Saudi Arabia, which usually moves in lockstep with the Federal Reserve to protect its currency peg to the dollar. 

Mati sees a “negligible” impact from potentially slower interest-rate cuts by the Fed, given the structure of the Saudi banks’ balance sheets and the plentiful liquidity in the kingdom thanks to elevated oil prices.

The IMF also expects the “non-oil sector growth momentum to remain strong” for at least the next couple of years, Mati said, driven by the kingdom’s plans to develop industries from manufacturing to logistics.

The kingdom “has undertaken many transformative reforms and is doing a lot of the right actions in terms of the regulatory environment,” Mati said. “But I think it takes time for some of those reforms to materialize.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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IMF Boss Says ‘All Eyes’ on US Amid Risks to Global Economy – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency. 

“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday. 

The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”

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The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last. 

“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”

Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry. 

Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality

Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. 

“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”

The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.

China Overcapacity

“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.

“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.

A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.

Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.

(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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