Surge in Services Demand Helps Steady India’s Economy in August - BNN Bloomberg | Canada News Media
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Surge in Services Demand Helps Steady India’s Economy in August – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — India’s economy showed signs of stabilizing last month, with strong demand for services helping weather headwinds from high inflation, according to a gauge of earliest available indicators.

From August, Bloomberg News has changed three of the eight indicators it uses to track the economy’s so-called animal spirits. It now includes power demand, goods and services tax collection, and unemployment rate, in place of the Citi India Financial Conditions Index, factory and infrastructure output.

The indicators showed sentiment in the services sector — which accounts for over 50% of the $3.2 trillion economy — was upbeat, tax revenue were robust and demand for loans high. A rising jobless rate was the main drag during the month.

Still, the needle on a dial measuring overall activity was unchanged from July, as the gauge uses a three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single month readings.

The steady pace of activity is expected to give monetary policy makers the confidence to continue raising interest rates to fight above-target inflation when they meet later this month. The Reserve Bank of India, which has raised interest rates by a total of 140 basis points in three moves this year, has said it targets a soft landing for the economy where growth isn’t sacrificed too much.

Below are details of the dashboard. (For an alternative gauge of growth trends, follow Bloomberg Economics’ monthly GDP tracker — a weighted index of 11 indicators.)

Business Activity

Purchasing managers’ surveys showed a rebound in S&P Global India Composite PMI in August, thanks largely to a stronger expansion in services activity amid an upturn in new orders and slower increase in input costs. 

Exports

Trade deficit hovered close to a record high last month as exports growth was little changed from a year ago, while imports jumped nearly 37%, according to preliminary data from the commerce ministry. A 2.2% year-on-year drop in value of non-petroleum exports in August weighed on the overall performance.

Consumer Activity

Bank credit demand jumped 15.5%, the most since November 2013, despite rising interest rates, data from the central bank showed, while liquidity in the banking system continued to be in surplus. That helped broadly support consumption activity, underscored by a jump in monthly goods and services tax collection. GST revenue in August came in at 1.44 trillion rupees ($18 billion), compared to early days of the pandemic when collections fell to as low as 323 billion rupees.

Market Sentiment

Electricity consumption, a widely used proxy to gauge demand in industrial and manufacturing sectors, showed activity is picking up. Numbers from India’s power ministry showed peak demand met in August jumped to 185 gigawatt from 167 gigawatt a month ago. However, rising unemployment numbers tempered the overall optimism, with data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. showing the jobless rate climbed to 8.3% — the highest level in a year. That shows the current pace of expansion isn’t enough to create jobs for the million plus people joining the workforce every month.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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