Surging momentum in U.S. dollar support gold bears and lower prices next week - Kitco NEWS | Canada News Media
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Surging momentum in U.S. dollar support gold bears and lower prices next week – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – The U.S. dollar’s unrelenting rally to 20-year highs is taking its toll on the gold market as prices prepare to end the week near their lowest point since April 2020.

The greenback’s extraordinary momentum and rising bond yields have shifted sentiment among Wall Street analysts to the bearish side. At the same time, retail investors are slightly more optimistic that prices can push higher next week, according to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey.

This week, a total of 19 market professionals took part in Kitco News’ Wall Street survey. Ten analysts, or 53%, said they were bearish on gold next week. At the same time, six analysts, or 32%, said they expect higher prices in the near term and three, or 16%, neutral on the precious metal.

On the retail side, 963 respondents took part in online polls. A total of469 voters, or 49%, called for gold to rise. Another 341, or 35%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 153 voters, or 16%, called for a sideways market.

Sentiment among retail investors has improved from the previous week as bearish sentiment has a slight advantage. December gold futures last traded at $1,655.70 an ounce, down nearly 1.7% from last week.

It has been a volatile week for the gold market as the precious metal managed to hold critical support levels even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and signaled that the Fed Funds rate could peak above 4.5% next year.

Many analysts said that gold has been able to withstand the U.S. central bank’s aggressive monetary policy stance as the threat of a recession continues to grow. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he didn’t know if the central bank’s action will push the U.S. economy into a recession, but he added that consumers should expect to see some pain as lower growth is needed to cool inflation.

Analysts said that the threat of a recession created some initial safe-haven demand for gold. However, that sentiment has been overwhelmed by volatility in global currency markets as the British pound saw the biggest price drop since 2016, when the nation voted to leave the European Union.

The selloff was triggered after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng revealed the government’s new budget with spending commitments ranging between £36 to £45 billion in the next four fiscal years. The massive spending initiative will be paid for with new debt.

“Today’s announcement shows that right now, the U.S. dollar is the only game in town and this will continue to make it difficult for the U.S. dollar,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.



It’s not just gold; analysts note the U.S. dollar’s dominance can be felt in the broad-based selloff throughout the commodity sector.

Although there is still some optimism in the marketplace as many see gold as oversold at current levels, many of the bulls see any rally as a short-term correction.

“We are bound to see a correction in bonds with 10-year yields up 33 bp in just one week while the dollar, sharply higher, is toying with the overbought territory,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Although Hansen is bullish on gold in the near term, he added, “There will be no prolonged recovery until we reach peak hawkishness, potentially still a few months away.”

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he sees a short-term bounce as bond yields consolidate. However, he added that he is watching to see if support at $1,650 can hold.

“A break of that can see $1600-$1620,” he said. “It may be too early to think a significant low in place in gold.”

Many analysts are bearish on gold as they expect the U.S. dollar can still move higher.

“Friday saw the greenback post its highest mark since May 2002 despite being sharply overbought from a technical point of view. If the dollar pulls back next week, gold could rally,” said Darin Newsome, president of Darin Newsom Analysis. “But until that happens, I’ll continue to follow Newton’s First Law of Motion applied to markets: A trending market will stay in that trend until acted upon by an outside force. And for now, the trend of the dollar is up and gold is down.”

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he is bearish on gold as the precious metal has seen some significant technical damage.

“As much as I think USD is getting overbought and due for a correction, gold not only broke down below $1,680, it also dropped under its 200-day moving average, and those are just too technically significant and bearish to ignore,” he said.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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