(Bloomberg) — Sweden’s economy will more likely “tread water” than fall into a severe recession, Danske Bank A/S forecast, downgrading its projections for the biggest Nordic country.
The economy is beset by a “shaky growth outlook” but supported by a strong labor market, the bank said on Tuesday, estimating this year will bring stagnation rather than the 0.5% expansion previously projected. Next year, Sweden will probably clock in the fastest growth rate among the four biggest Nordic nations.
Housing prices have already bottomed out after a slide that weighed on Sweden through 2022, the bank said, joining rival Svenska Handelsbanken AB that was the first to forecast no further decline. There’s a “good chance of inflation dropping back at a rate consistent with the Riksbank’s forecast,” Danske said, penciling in one more interest-rate hike for the central bank this month, to 4%. It also needs to keep rates near the European Central Bank’s to protect the krona.
Norway is facing a “kind of stagflation” scenario, with growth showing clear signs of slowing while there is a risk of inflation “embedding at high levels and becoming self-perpetuating through price-wage spirals,” Danske said. Still, Norges Bank’s key rate hikes are “beginning to bite” and the krone has performed largely as expected, suggesting that policymakers will stop tightening after an expected quarter point hike to 4.25% later this month, it said.
While Danske raised its 2023 GDP forecast for Denmark to 1.7% from 1.5%, it warned that growth is largely driven by Novo Nordisk A/S and its pharmaceutical peers, with large parts of the economy facing stagnation or recession.
“A number of construction companies are feeling the pinch, and bankruptcy numbers are approaching financial crisis levels,” Danske said, adding that industrial production excluding the pharma companies is falling.
Building activity is also a headache for the Finnish economy, with the European Union’s highest share of variable-rate mortgages, at more than 95%. Housing construction is set to remain weak “long into 2024” with the impacts felt beyond builders, the bank said.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
