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Swedish Real-Estate Companies Face Risk of More Downgrades at Moody’s

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(Bloomberg) — The pain in the Swedish property sector is about to spread further, as more companies face the risk of downgrades spurred by their deteriorating debt profiles, according to credit-rating company Moody’s Investors Service.

Rising inflation and higher funding costs are hurting real-estate companies, whose debt-driven growth strategies are fast becoming unprofitable, or unfeasible, when refinancing options dry up. Moody’s, which has already cut the rating of Castellum AB and lowered the rating outlooks on the debt of Fastighets AB Balder and Fabege AB, said it expects more “negative rating actions” to come as companies’ ability to service their debt is eroded.

The firms most exposed to negative actions would be those with “low-yielding assets, significant refinancing needs and a low degree of hedges,” Moody’s Senior Credit Officer Maria Gillholm said in an interview, adding that such assets are found within Stockholm’s central business district and residential properties.

Nordic property firms “are very vulnerable to higher interest rates” and need to refinance almost 300 billion kronor ($29 billion) of bonds in the next two years, according to a Moody’s report published on Tuesday. But for some, the credit market won’t be an option as financing costs are likely to be too high. Banks are expected to absorb a share of that lending — but not all — and they will probably focus on those with the strongest finances, the rating company said.

“The banking sector clearly has the technical capacity to take basically everyone on board if you look at the next couple of years,” Senior Credit Officer Louise Welin said. “But they will be selective and only lend to companies with good creditworthiness.”

Michael Johansson, a real estate analyst with Arctic Securities, said the refinancing next year should be “relatively smooth” for larger firms, but that the problems will be more visible in the following two years. Some smaller companies will see their fate determined in negotiations with bondholders, if they don’t take action to secure financing, he he said via a text message.

The situation is more acute in Sweden, Moody’s said, because the sector is much larger there than it is in Finland or Norway. Many of the landlords will also face difficulties in lifting rents in tandem with inflation as tenants may be struggling, Moody’s said in the report.

And while most Nordic real-estate firms have enough liquidity to cover bond maturities for the coming year-and-a-half, those resources are set to dwindle as companies await re-entry to the bond market, it said.

The rating firm doesn’t expect the Riksbank, which during the pandemic bought 7.1 billion of real estate bonds, to come to the sector’s aid again unless its refinancing problems threaten broader financial stability.

On a conference hosted by Moody’s on Tuesday the Swedish central bank’s Deputy Governor Martin Floden said that the sector is unlikely to need support from the Riksbank, and that propping up companies that are unable to deal with current borrowing costs would make little sense.

“Sure, we have raised rates rapidly in a short period of time but the policy rate is still at 2.5%,” Floden said. “That is a low level and companies that can’t handle a rate at 2.5% maybe shouldn’t exist.”

The Riksbank and Sweden’s Financial Supervisory Authority have repeatedly warned of the risks stemming from commercial property debt. Anders Kvist, a senior adviser to the director of the FSA, recently said that falling real-estate values could trigger a “domino effect,” as demands for more collateral could force distressed selling.

Moody’s said that valuations could come down by about 10% on average, varying by asset type, quality and location. It sees residential, shopping centers and logistics properties declining before office real estate. Increased revenues from indexed rents and finished projects could offset some of the negative effects, Gillholm said.

–With assistance from Abhinav Ramnarayan and Niclas Rolander.

(Updates with chart and comments from sixth paragraph.)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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