Politics

Swirling doubts herald major shifts at upcoming Chinese political meeting – The Washington Post

Published

2 years ago

June 9, 2022

Was Chinese Premier Li Keqiang challenging President Xi Jinping’s “zero covid” policy when he toured a university in southwestern China without a mask in May? Did Xi briefly disappear from the front page of the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper to quash a rebellion? Is Li making a last-ditch effort to usurp Xi?

Speculation about political infighting and schisms at the top of the Chinese Communist Party are a common feature of its secretive system of appointing new leaders. But this year, political silly season has started early, and the swirl of rumor has been especially intense.

That’s unsurprising in the buildup to the immensely important, twice-per-decade Party Congress in the fall, which is shaping up to be the most significant transition of power in China since the pro-democracy Tiananmen Square movement in 1989 sparked a messy inter-factional battle for control.

Most close observers of Chinese politics have brushed aside the idea of a fierce battle for power at the top of the party, arguing that Xi’s hold is so strong that he is near-guaranteed to take on a third term at this year’s meeting.

What is more unclear is whether the rumors flying around Chinese business circles and overseas Chinese-language media suggest a degree of pushback that will force Xi to compromise on personnel choices and water down some of his more ambitious policy objectives as he enters a third term.

China passes history resolution to enshrine open-ended rule of Xi Jinping

“What is unusual this time is that China as a whole is doing poorly ahead of a historic Party Congress,” said Minxin Pei, a political scientist studying Chinese politics at Claremont McKenna College. “Its economy is in terrible shape; the zero-covid policy looks increasingly untenable; and China’s relations with nearly all Western countries are at historic lows. This of course does not reflect well on Xi.”

Chinese scholars, however, maintain that nothing is out of the ordinary. Victor Gao, a former interpreter for past leader Deng Xiaoping now at the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, said in an interview that the rumors are merely part of the cycles of Chinese politics and will soon settle.

Gao did note that this year was particularly important because the transition will include significant turnover in the 25-member Politburo and the 200-odd Central Committee, where he expects new faces for about half of the former and at least a third in the latter. “You’re talking about changes, lots of changes. People retiring, lots of aspiring people trying to get up, being promoted,” he said.

To glean a sense of whether Xi’s rule is under serious pressure, international scholars carefully track promotions and demotions as well as signals in party propaganda. At the center of this informed guesswork — often called “tea leaf reading” — is the question of just how much Xi’s centralization of control has upended past competition and the delicate balancing of interests within the party.

After Xi’s decade-long campaigns to clear corruption and ensure loyalty, it’s unclear whether any cliques remain unified and influential enough to challenge his rule. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Xi is unopposed.

“It’s a huge political party, and at the end of the day, Xi Jinping cannot populate all the mid-level positions with trusted followers,” said Victor Shih, a scholar of Chinese politics at the University of California at San Diego.

In a recent book, Shih argues that autocratic political systems such as China’s create an incentive for strongman leaders to adopt a strategy of building “coalitions of the weak,” where politically compromised or inexperienced officials are favored for positions of power as a way of guarding the top leader from challengers.

This, Shih suggests, was the approach Mao Zedong took and Xi may be beginning to adopt. But doing so could mean promoting inexperienced officials incapable of tackling acute economic and foreign policy challenges. Xi faces a trade-off between choosing competent leaders who might later challenge him or taking a “safe route, which is what Mao did, to ultimately have a coalition of officials who are highly dependent on him.”

The exact processes of power brokering that China calls “intraparty democracy” remain shrouded in secrecy, but it is clear that Xi’s campaign to end infighting within the party has changed dynamics of internal contestation. Previous features of Chinese political maneuvering, such as an annual visit to the seaside town of Beidaihe, are less prominent, if they now exist at all.

Xi’s strict covid policies prompt rumblings of discontent in China

Xi’s control of the formidable party discipline and ideology apparatuses mean any challenger faces a steep coordination problem to challenge his power. “Getting rid of him would be a very significant political earthquake for the party,” said Olivia Cheung, a research fellow at SOAS University of London. “No matter how many of the elite do not like Xi Jinping, there is a consensus that the party wants to stay on in power.”

Restricted information has made it harder for experts to predict major turning points in Xi’s tenure. Few predicted the monumental decision to end presidential term limits, announced by Xinhua News in a terse statement only a month before it was voted on at the annual meeting of China’s legislature in early 2018.

Policymaking, too, has become less transparent under Xi, who has made greater use of “central leading groups,” many of which he personally chairs, to centralize control of decision-making. On issues including the pandemic, cybersecurity and curbing debt in the property market, Xi’s policies have in the last year repeatedly caused market panic, but there have been few signs any of them will be reversed.

Such upsets are rarely blamed on Xi but, rather, on local officials. Shanghai’s botched lockdown, for example, has not led to a shift in China’s zero-covid policy, but some analysts believe it may hurt the promotion prospects of Li Qiang, the city’s party boss and a Xi ally.

Similarly, Li’s recent prominence, read by some as an indication of a challenge to Xi, can equally well be explained as the premier being intentionally used as a figurehead in charge of resolving deepening economic woes.

A small uptick in Li’s mentions in state media doesn’t mean he is “surging back into power,” said Neil Thomas, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, a think tank. “This is a way for Xi to make Li the face of economic policy in a year when economic policy is probably going to bring nothing but bad news.”

Mary Gallagher, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, said that Xi’s tenure has caused her to revise previous emphasis on China being unusual among authoritarian regimes, because before Xi, the party appeared to be moving toward institutionalization succession with top leaders bowing out after two terms.

“Having this expectation that every decade China’s leadership would change was really important in making China seem like a stable authoritarian regime,” she said. “Without those institutions in place, it not only makes investors nervous; it makes the next generation of leaders nervous.”

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Politics

Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

Published

8 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Politics

NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

Published

15 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

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Politics

Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

Published

15 hours ago

September 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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