(Bloomberg) — Taiwan cut its 2022 growth forecast for the third time this year as the global demand slowdown and rising geopolitical tensions with China prove tough to navigate.
Gross domestic product is likely to grow 3.06% for the year, the Cabinet’s statistics department said in a statement Tuesday. That’s lower than the last formal estimate of 3.76% given in August. The official 2023 GDP forecast was downgraded to 2.75% from 3.05%.
Authorities cited a downturn in exports through the rest of this year and next as contributing factors.
“Economic growth is expected to be relatively low in the first half of 2023,” said Tsai Yu-tai, the department’s head of statistics.
Chu Tzer-ming, the Cabinet’s chief statistician, added that growth would “gradually pick up” after the second quarter.
Export growth for 2022 is projected at around 8.7%, lower than an earlier forecast of about 13.5% as global inflation, interest rates and China’s Covid Zero policy curb demand. The government said 2023 exports are expected to contract slightly.
Officials left their full-year forecast for inflation little changed at 2.94%. It’s still the highest projection since the global financial crisis in 2008, when inflation surpassed 3.5%.
The government also revised GDP growth for the third quarter of 2022 to 4.01% from an earlier estimate of 4.1%.
Taiwan’s growth has been challenging this year. The economy is expected to expand at roughly half the rate it did last year, when booming demand for electronics and semiconductors boosted GDP.
Trade has fallen off in recent months, with exports contracting for the second consecutive month in October as the global slowdown intensifies — a trend seen elsewhere in the region, including in South Korea’s dismal trade figures.
Taiwan weathered the downturn relatively well for much of the year. Last month’s fall in overseas shipments wasn’t as bad as economists expected, with exports to the US, Japan and elsewhere offset waning demand from China.
The economy has also managed to confront other headwinds including inflation, which central bank Governor Yang Chin-long said Tuesday was effectively contained through interest rate hikes and other measures.
Even so, Taiwan likely won’t be able to avoid more substantial economic pain forever. Chinese demand is still under pressure as Covid Zero continues to dominate policy there. Taiwanese officials have warned that November is likely to record a drop in exports of between 5% and 8%.
–With assistance from Cindy Wang.
(Updates with additional remarks from government officials.)
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
