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Taiwan’s Economy Shrinks for First Time in More Than Six Years

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(Bloomberg) — Taiwan’s economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter, recording its worst contraction since the global financial crisis as waning global demand brought to an end a pandemic-fueled trade boom.

Gross domestic product for the October-to-December quarter fell 0.86% from a year earlier, advanced figures from the Taiwan Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics showed Wednesday.

That was the first fall since the beginning of 2016, and the worst percentage decline since the third quarter of 2009. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting growth of 1.2%.

The fourth-quarter slump “is the biggest decline seen since the financial crisis,” Wu Pei-hsuan, a senior executive officer at Taiwan’s statistics bureau, said at a press briefing in Taipei Wednesday.

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Economic growth exploded in 2021 as the world began reopening from the pandemic. Taiwan enjoyed surging exports for its semiconductor and other products during that time, which drove growth. But the economy was pressured last year as inflation rose and interest rates skyrocketed, tempering global demand.

Exports to China, one of Taiwan’s most important trading partners, were hammered as the world’s second-largest economy remained isolated from much of the world under Covid Zero. Activity in China was also hampered in December as it abandoned virus curbs and infections spread.

Exports to China and Hong Kong in the fourth quarter plunged 15.6% from a year earlier, Wu said.

The drag on the economy was “clearly from exports,” said Ho Woei Chen, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore. By comparison, private consumption demand saw “respectable growth.”

“From the way things look, I don’t think we have seen the bottom and there’s a prospect of a technical recession in the first quarter,” she added.

GDP expanded 2.43% for all of 2022, the statistics data showed. That was slightly worse than expectations that the economy would grow 2.9% for the year, according to the Bloomberg survey. It was the slowest annual rate of growth since 2016.

–With assistance from Cindy Wang.

(Updates with analyst commentary and official remarks.)

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Canada's economy slowed down in November, but still eked out growth – CBC.ca

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Business

The Canadian economy grew by 0.1 per cent in November as higher interest rates began to slow spending toward the end of the year.

Service sector expanded even as goods producing industries contracted

Canada’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.1 per cent in November, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

The Canadian economy grew by 0.1 per cent in November as higher interest rates began to slow spending toward the end of the year.

Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for December indicates the economy stayed flat, suggesting the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter.

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The economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 per cent in the third quarter.

In November, growth in real domestic product was driven by the public sector, transportation and warehousing and finance and insurance.

Meanwhile, construction, retail and accommodation and food services contracted.

Statistics Canada says economic growth for 2022 was an estimated 3.8 per cent.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Nojoud Al Mallees covers economics for The Canadian Press. She’s based in Ottawa.

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IMF Raises World Economic Outlook for the First Time in a Year – Bloomberg

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IMF Raises World Economic Outlook for the First Time in a Year  Bloomberg

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Canadian economy grew 0.1% in November, likely was unchanged in December – The Globe and Mail

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People shop for produce at the Granville Island Market, in Vancouver, on July 20, 2022.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press

Canada’s economy expanded slightly in November, matching expectations, and likely stalled in December, data showed on Tuesday, broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s expectations for the economy to flatline during the first half of this year.

November gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.1 per cent in November, Statistics Canada said, and was likely flat in December, according to a preliminary estimate.

“The flash estimate for December suggested that there was little if any growth during the final month of the year. That aligns with our view that the economy is likely stalling,” said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins.

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In December, gains in the retail, utilities, and public sectors were offset by decreases in sectors including wholesale, finance and insurance, Statscan said.

Annualized gross domestic product likely gained 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, above the Bank of Canada’s 1.3 per cent forecast. If the flash estimate proves correct, the economy expanded 3.8 per cent in 2022 from the previous year, above the central bank’s 3.6 per cent forecast.

“Today’s data show that the Canadian economy continues to cool, but not as yet shift into reverse, in the face of rising interest rates,” Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note.

The Canadian central bank has raised its key interest rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months to cool the economy and bring inflation down. After the latest rate hike last week, the Bank of Canada said it would likely hold off on further increases.

Last week, the central bank said the economy would stall and could tip into a mild recession during the first half of this year.

“The overriding message is that the economy is just managing to keep its head above water, which squarely fits with the Bank of Canada’s view,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Canada’s service-producing sector grew 0.2 per cent in November, buoyed by a third straight month of gains in transportation and warehousing. The goods-producing sector contracted 0.1 per cent in November, dragged down by declines in the construction and manufacturing industries.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2 per cent lower at 1.3405 to the greenback, or 74.60 U.S. cents, after clawing back some of its earlier decline.

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