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TD and CIBC cap three days of dismal forecasts of economic impact of COVID-19 – The Globe and Mail

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A man walks past a TD Canada Trust branch in Toronto on Aug. 22, 2017.

Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

Two more major Canadian banks have reported quarterly profits declined by more than half as they stocked up reserves to absorb anticipated loan losses, capping three days of dismal forecasts from bankers about the extent of the economic damage the novel coronavirus could do.

Toronto-Dominion Bank set aside more than $3.2-billion in provisions to cover losses on loans that could go sour, an eye-catching sum that eclipsed large spikes in provisions at each of the other Big Six banks. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce set aside more than $1.4-billion as a reserve against its own potential losses on Thursday.

The need to rapidly build bulwarks against future losses was the driving force behind the steep plunge in earnings across the sector in the fiscal second-quarter – profits declined 52 per cent at TD and 71 per cent at CIBC. But in the midst of a global pandemic that prompted a wide-ranging economic shutdown, all six of the country’s big banks remained profitable, with capital levels securely intact and their quarterly dividends unaltered.

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“I think that’s one reason the banks’ [stocks] are rallying, even though the results themselves in absolute terms are not good,” said Meny Grauman, an analyst at Cormark Securities Inc. “There’s a big relief that there was no bomb so far in the results.”

The provisions that banks booked were largely based on complex forecasts of possible future losses, calculated using the best assumptions they can cobble together at this stage. They provide a yardstick by which to measure the potential scale of economic carnage from COVID-19, taking stock of debt held by consumers as well as businesses of all sizes in an array of industries. But the pace of recovery is uncertain, and senior bankers warned that a return to precrisis profitability won’t be quick.

“It may take to [2021], it may take to early [2022] before you see a robustness back in the banking sector again, assuming that the health care crisis is behind us,” Victor Dodig, CIBC’s chief executive officer, said on a conference call with analysts.

For the three months that ended April 30, TD reported profit of $1.52-billion, or 80 cents per share, compared with $3.17-billion, or $1.70, a year ago. Adjusted for certain items, TD said it earned 85 cents per share, on an adjusted basis, matching analysts’ consensus estimate, according to Refinitiv.

In the same period, CIBC earned $392-million, or 83 cents per share, compared with $1.35-billion, or $2.95 a share, last year. On an adjusted basis, CIBC said it earned $0.94 per share, far shy of the $1.65 in adjusted earnings per share analysts expected.

The resilience of banks’ capital levels was an important theme in the second quarter, and each large Canadian bank emerged with billions of dollars in excess capital over and above the minimum threshold set by regulators. Yet TD had a sharper decline than expected in its common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio – which measures a bank’s highest-quality capital relative to its assets, an important indication of a financial health – which fell to 11 per cent, from 11.7 per cent a year ago.

A range of factors contributed to the drop, including share buybacks before the crisis and changes in foreign exchange rates, but the bank also adjusted the levels of risk it assigns to various assets as customers drew heavily on credit lines when the shutdown began in mid-March. To be prudent, TD introduced a 2-per-cent discount on shares purchased through its dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), which is a tool to raise capital, after BMO made the same move in April.

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By contrast, the CET1 ratio at CIBC didn’t budge, remaining at 11.3 per cent, partly as result of a routine adjustment of the bank’s models. As some loans deteriorate because of economic losses owing to the economy shutting down, however, CIBC expects some pressure on the ratio is possible in the current quarter.

After two days of surging prices for bank stocks, shares in TD and CIBC both gave back some ground on Thursday, falling 3.8 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Even as banks prepare for a surge in impaired loans, actual losses have been delayed in some cases by payment deferral programs the banks are offering and government relief measures. TD said it has deferred payments on $62-million in loans to consumers and businesses, a majority of which is made up of mortgages, while CIBC has granted payment deferrals on loans worth $51.6-billion to clients in Canada, the United States and the Caribbean.

As those programs expire, banks expect most customers to resume payments. “I view the deferral programs to be ultimately risk-reducing,” said Ajai Bambawale, TD’s chief risk officer, because they give customers breathing room to bounce back from a temporary loss of income.

But TD has built reserves to cover some losses on deferred loans, “because in our view it is a matter of time before some become delinquent, others may become impaired as well,” he said.

Driving up loan-loss provisions played a major part in sapping profits in the banks’ core retail divisions. Customers also spent less money on cards and used spare cash to pay down debt. And rapid cuts to interest rates by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve squeezed profit margins on loans.

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At TD, retail banking profit fell 37 per cent to $1.17-billion in Canada, and plunged by 90 per cent in its U.S. retail arm, to $102-million, excluding profit from the bank’s share of TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. And CIBC’s profit from Canadian personal and small business banking fell 64 per cent, to $203-million.

In banks’ capital markets divisions, robust levels of trading activity and record levels of debt underwriting were expected to help prop up banks’ profits. But in several cases, those benefits were eclipsed by rising provisions on corporate loans and losses on certain trading strategies in volatile equity markets.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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