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Teranet-National Bank: Canadian Real Estate Prices See Slowest June In 17 Years – Better Dwelling

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Canada’s largest land registry and a Big Six Bank are starting to see a slowdown for Canadian real estate. The TeranetNational Bank House Price Index (TNB HPI) increased in June. National Bank economists warned this isn’t the bullish sign it appears to be. The index actually made the smallest increase for June in 17 years, and was negative when seasonally adjusted.

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index (TNB HPI) tracks the price movement of resale homes. It’s created as a partnership between Teranet, Canada’s largest land registry operator, and a Big Six Bank. It was designed as an independent index for the financial community. The concept is similar to CREA’s benchmark price, but there’s a key difference – the TNB HPI uses land registry data. As opposed to the MLS sales data CREA uses.

There’s pros and cons to both data sets, and neither are right or wrong, but they are different. Since CREA and related boards use MLS data, the data is entered as soon as the sale becomes unconditional. Since the measurement is taken before registry, it’s faster – but has a chance of not going through. This is rare, but happens more frequently during periods of rapid volatility.

The TNB HPI only uses land registry data, which means only sales that have competed go through. This also has the benefit of logging even non-MLS sales, which can be 10-20% higher. The issue is it typically takes a little longer for sales to hit the registry. This means the information is about 30 to 60 days from the price agreement. Some would argue this is a lag. Others argue MLS data is incomplete. Neither is better or worse, but they are different, so it’s worth it for analysts to check both for diversion or confirmation.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Rise At The Slowest Pace In 17 Years

The C11, an aggregate index of Canada’s largest 11 markets, began to show signs of slowing. Prices increased 0.69% in June, and are up 5.88% from the same month last year. When seasonally adjusted though, prices fell 0.1% in June – the first decline in 11 months. National Bank called this “confirmation” of the housing market slowdown.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

The unadjusted price growth was much slower than usual, putting a drag on total growth. National Bank noted the 0.69% increase in June is half the average for the month, over the past ten years. It also happens to be the smallest increase for June in 17 years. Overall this resulted in some deceleration of the 12-month price growth trend, after 10 months of accelerating.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Grow Faster Than National Average

Greater Toronto’s composite price index reached a new record high last month. Prices increased 0.75% in the month of June, and are up 9.09% from the same month last year. This represents a new record for the index, and acceleration on price growth. Worth mentioning, Toronto’s real estate board has been noting abrupt price growth deceleration since March. This isn’t necessarily a conflict, but could be a slight lag when using registry data vs MLS data.

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Are Still Below 2018 Peak

Greater Vancouver’s composite price index increased, but lagged the national movement. Prices increased 0.18% in June, and are now up 1.13% compared to the same month last year. Prices remain 4.18% lower than they were at the peak in July 2018. This index may also be lagging the board’s index, which is actually seeing prices fall further from peak.

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Are Growing Twice As Fast As The National Average

Greater Montreal’s composite price index is growing at twice the pace of the national movement. Prices increased 1.36% in June, and are up 10.28% from the same month last year. This represents a new all-time high for the market. The market is overperforming on both the month and year.

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Calgary Real Estate Prices Fall Further From October 2014 Peak

Calgary real estate almost looked like it was in the clear, but reversed in January. Prices are down 0.09% in June, bringing them 1.29% lower than the same month last year. Composite prices are now down 8.28% from the peak reached in October 2014. With the monthly decline, prices are getting further from peak.

Calgary Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate is seeing prices rise, but at a pace below expectation. When adjusted for seasonality, prices are even falling by this measure. Large markets like Toronto and Montreal  are outperforming the national index, which is contrary to CREAs HPI. CREA’s numbers show these markets are underperforming. The data is mixed, but this could be an indication some segments of the TNB HPI are showing their lag.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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