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Thai Economy Sees Slower Contraction With Stimulus Spending – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Thailand’s economy improved in the third quarter after the government eased restrictions on movement and implemented a series of stimulus measures while getting the country’s Covid-19 outbreak largely under control.

Gross domestic product shrank 6.4% from a year ago, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, recovering from the prior quarter’s revised 12.1% contraction at the peak of the outbreak. The figure was better than the median estimate of 8.8% contraction in a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists. The council also raised its full-year forecast to a 6% contraction, from an earlier estimate of a 7.3% to 7.8% drop.

With tourism and trade hit hard by the outbreak, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha has spent hundreds of billions of baht in cash handouts and stimulus measures from a 1.9 trillion-baht ($62.9 billion) economic package to support local demand. Meanwhile, a strengthening currency and political protests pose risks to the fragile recovery.

All the economic indicators, barring tourism, improved in the third quarter and government spending will remain the main growth driver for next year, Danucha Pichayanan, the council’s secretary general, told a news briefing. A strengthening baht and high level of unemployment remain risks for growth next year, he said.

Key Insights:

  • The council’s full-year forecast of a 6% contraction compares with a 7.7% fall seen by the country’s finance ministry and the 7.8% decline the central bank expects. It also forecast a growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in 2021
  • GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 6.5% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, the council said Monday, better than the median estimate of a 3.9% gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Second-quarter GDP estimate was revised to -9.9% from 9.7% earlier

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  • The government wants the central bank to temper a rally in the nation’s currency, which is threatening its efforts to boost exports as an offset to the slump in tourism revenue. The baht has surged in the past month as foreign inflows resumed into Thai stocks and bonds
  • Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput said last week that the country’s high foreign reserves and low foreign debt will help it weather the crisis, which will take time and targeted remedies to resolve. Around 3 million workers have been affected by the pandemic, with 700,000-800,000 people rendered jobless
  • Challenges to economic recovery in 2021 include rising unemployment, as well as a drought, Covid-19 outbreak, global financial and economic situation, including U.S. governance under the new president, Danucha said
  • Measures to accelerate economic rebound should focus on managing Covid-19 infection risks, helping tourism sector, disbursing public spending, promoting private investment, preparing for a drought, and de-escalating the protest movement: Danucha

(Updates with comments on outlook in fourth paragraph.)

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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