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The bad economic times have only just started

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A strike by port workers in British Columbia slowed economic activity in July. Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press – image credit)

The Canadian economy is headed for a rough patch. Growth has already slowed considerably. Job growth has moderated. Inflation remains stubbornly high. But the pain households are feeling today is only going to get worse.

“The path forward looks bleak,” Tiago Figueiredo, a macro strategy associate with Desjardins, said in a note.

For a while there, the economy proved more resilient than expected. The Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes piled up one after another. Even so, the jobs market boomed, GDP continued to expand.

But economic pain was inevitable. Soaring inflation has eroded purchasing power, and climbing interest rates have clobbered households. Now, cracks have begun to appear in the data, and economists expect those cracks to grow. GDP contracted in the second quarter of this year.

Next week, new data are expected to show economic growth flat-lined in July and perhaps contracted again in August. Some of that can be chalked up to specific factors, such as the port strike including labour actions like the port strike in B.C. or wildfires.

But before any of that, momentum was clearing being sapped out of the Canadian economy.

That would put Canada on track for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which would meet the technical definition of a recession.

Frances Donald, the global chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment Management, says we should spend less time debating what to call this downturn and focus more on how it will impact people.

“Even if there are technical factors that avert two quarters of negative GDP, this economy will feel like a recession to most Canadians, for the next year,” she told CBC News.

How bad are things, really?

Experts say there are several factors masking just how bad the economy really is. The first is that it usually takes about a year and a half for the full impact of interest rate changes to get absorbed into the economy.

The Bank of Canada began its rate-hiking cycle 17 months ago. That means the impact of the fastest, most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in Canadian history is still to come.

Second, consumption patterns changed during the pandemic and haven’t fully reverted to normal, predictable ways that make economic modelling easier. During pandemic lockdowns, Canadians bought a lot of “stuff.” We snatched up electronics, gym equipment, household wares. Now, those same households are primarily spending on experiences.

So, retail sales figures just released show an uptick in July, but a slowdown in August. How much of that is seasonal or cyclical isn’t as easy to determine when all these other factors are pushing and pulling consumers in different directions.

“Discretionary consumer spending is getting held back by inflation and surging borrowing costs. Another sign of sluggish growth for the Canadian economy while the Bank of Canada, at the same time, grapples with above-target inflation,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO, wrote in a note to clients.

Hovering above all the numbers and all the changes is an unprecedented surge in immigration. More than a million people moved to Canada last year alone. That has driven consumption, but masked some underlying weaknesses.

Donald says all those factors have combined to make the economy look healthier than it really is.

“We are in the moment between when the Titanic hit the iceberg. But the ship has not sunk. When it seems as though we’ve experienced a shock, but not a problematic one,” said Donald.

“The good news is that, unlike the Titanic, we can heal the economy if we need to  by lowering interest rates.”

Where are interest rates headed?

The Bank of Canada paused its series of rate hikes earlier this month. But the central bank said that was contingent on seeing further progress in the fight to rein in inflation.

Since then, inflation came in much hotter than anyone expected. And this time it wasn’t just gasoline and mortgage interest costs. The so-called core measures of inflation, which strip out the more volatile components, such as the price of gas, all rose or held their ground.

Derek Holt, vice-president and head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, says the breadth of the price pressures in August is “astounding”. He says 52 per cent of the consumer price index basket is up by four per cent month over month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Nearly two-thirds is up by more than three per cent.

He says the recent data challenge the most basic assumptions people have been making about the economy.

“Inflation’s cooling, they say. It’s only gasoline and mortgage interest costs that are driving it, they say. The government’s (rather unclear) ‘plan’ is working, they say. The Bank of Canada is obviously done raising rates, they say. All of which is complete, utter, rubbish,” he said in a note to clients.

Holt says the re-acceleration in last month’s inflation data “definitely ups the odds of a rate hike” when the central bank meets again in October.

In a speech this week, Bank of Canada deputy governor Sharon Kozicki highlighted the dilemma the central bank is facing.

‘We are a long way from rate cuts’

“We know that if we don’t do enough now, we will likely have to do even more later. And that if we tighten too much, we risk unnecessarily hurting the economy,” she told a luncheon in Regina.

She said some volatility in inflation was “not uncommon,” that past rate hikes “will continue to weigh” on economic activity.

None of that is new. The central bank has spent much of the last year and a half talking about balancing the risk between doing too much and causing more pain than was necessary and doing too little and letting inflation get entrenched.

But economists such as Donald say there’s been a shift as the bank begins to think about when and how it will have to start looking at bringing rates back down to ease the burden on households.

“We are a long way from rate cuts,” she says. “But, you could see the off ramp in the very far distance. And the Bank of Canada is trying to widen that off ramp to give them some optionality” should they need it.

She’s forecasting rates will start to come down again during the first half of next year.

“But for a lot of Canadians, there’s a lot that’s still a lot of pain to get through,” says Donald.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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