The Bank of Canada's rate cut could fuel the real estate market amid COVID-19 - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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The Bank of Canada's rate cut could fuel the real estate market amid COVID-19 – The Globe and Mail

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The Bank of Canada slashed interest rates Friday for the second time this month, a move that came as sentiment had begun to darken in the country’s real estate market with the spread of the COVID-19 crisis.

At the same time, however, the federal banking regulator and finance department suspended changes to the mortgage stress test that would have made it easier for borrowers to qualify for a bigger loan.

The central bank made its surprise interest rate cut to 0.75 per cent, from 1.25 per cent, less than two weeks after it cut the level from 1.75 per cent, which triggered a frenzy in the mortgage market, with homeowners and buyers taking out new loans, refinancing, renewing and breaking their old mortgage contracts.

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But this rate cut did not spur major lenders to trim their mortgage rates. In fact, some responded by raising rates. “The banks are trying to control a run on refinancing,” said Shawn Zigelstein, sales representative with Royal LePage Your Community Realty.

Confidence in real estate started to turn to caution midweek, with the number of coronavirus cases rising, business activity slowing and stock markets suffering historic declines.

“Pure economic reality set in,” said Ron Butler, a broker with Butler Mortgage Inc., which is licensed in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.

“I have gone from extremely enthusiastic about real estate and mortgages to ‘what the hell?’ right now,” he said.

Mr. Butler said his outlook changed midweek after some of his clients started asking whether they could break their property acquisitions in Ontario before their deals closed.

The Bank of Canada rate should help demand in the sector, and also free up cash for consumers, economists say. Lower interest rates typically make it easier for homeowners with mortgages to pay their loans if they have a variable rate or if they are able to renegotiate at a lower level. It could also free up extra cash if a home owner decides to refinance.

At the same time, plunging oil prices, a slowdown in business activity and a near shutdown in the entertainment and travel industries is damaging Canada’s economy.

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“Two forces act in opposing directions,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “There is a point that reduced confidence takes over lower rates. I see a wave of rate renegotiations coming, something that will help to free some money for other purposes.”

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, the federal banking regulator, said it would suspend consultations on the stress test for uninsured mortgages, as well as other policy development until conditions stabilize.

The regulator was expected to follow the finance department’s decision to use a new rate to calculate the stress test for insured mortgages that have a down payment of less than 20 per cent. That change is also on hold.

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Under current rules, borrowers must qualify at an interest rate that is either two percentage points higher than their actual contract, or at the Bank of Canada’s benchmark five-year mortgage rate (currently sitting at 5.19 per cent) – whichever is higher.

“Policy makers may be concerned that in light of the sudden steep drop in interest rates, combined with a tight housing market and a more challenging near-term economic outlook, now is not the time for changes in the stress tests,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist with Bank of Montreal.

It is too early to say whether the economic slowdown and spread of the coronavirus will slow sales and depress prices in Southern Ontario, Montreal, Victoria and Ottawa – where a shortage of properties has spurred competition and offers well over the asking price.

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Several Toronto home buyers said their enthusiasm for house hunting has waned in recent days. “It’s all very unnerving,” said Geoff Charkow, who started looking for property for his family of four about three weeks ago. “When you are going to spend, make the biggest purchase of your life … you will want to make sure that the timing is right.”

Realtors across the country said more clients are starting to voice concerns about open houses and questioning whether they should list their homes.

Real estate agent Andre Kutyan of Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd. in Toronto said some sellers insist that he question the buyer’s agent about his or her own health and travel history – and those of the client. Mr. Kutyan said one homeowner added the requirement that anyone who books an appointment to view her home must agree to wear a mask and disposable gloves.

In Calgary, where the real estate market has been depressed since the oil downturn of 2015, the rate cut has spurred a wave of refinancings. Corinne Lyall, a broker owner of Royal LePage Benchmark in Calgary, said she has heard some clients are concerned about having open houses.

“There is a fine balance between supporting our clients to get their homes sold and being cautious about the virus epidemic,” she said. “So far in Alberta, the advisory is still low, so we feel we should carry on with business unless there is a serious change to our advisory status.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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