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The big oil turnaround: From negative prices to a bull market – BNNBloomberg.ca

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Every day, traders in London congregate at 4 p.m. to buy and sell North Sea oil for half an hour. The window, as it’s known in the industry, is where competition between the most powerful players in the market sets the price of Brent crude.

Two months ago, every trader wanted to sell cargoes and none were keen to buy. Now the window has transformed into a bull market, where bids outnumber offers 10 to one and prices are surging.

“The physical market is strong,” said Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at Trafigura Group.

The turnaround reflects the most torrid period in the history of oil.

First, the coronavirus outbreak obliterated demand in China and shattered the oil alliance between Moscow and Riyadh. Next, the global epidemic and destructive Saudi-Russia price war pushed the market to the brink of disaster. The collapse brought the rivals back together for the biggest production cut on record, just as the pandemic ebbed.

Mirror Image

The renewed strength of the “physical market” for crude — where actual barrels change hands between producers, refiners and traders — is driving a surge in the much larger Wall Street world of oil contracts traded on exchanges in London and New York.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose above US$40 a barrel on Friday. That’s a mirror image of two months earlier, when the U.S. benchmark made an unprecedented plunge into negative pricing as storage tanks came close to filling.

Beyond the symbolism of that number for the American market, the oil price curve for Brent — the range of futures contracts covering the coming months — shows the international market has transformed too.

It flipped last week into so-called backwardation, with crude for immediate delivery trading at a premium to forward contracts. That shape is a telling sign that refiners that saw demand for their products disappear during the lockdown, are now willing to pay top dollar to secure supplies for their facilities.

Leaving Lockdown

“You can see demand ramping up every week,” said Marco Dunand, co-founder of major oil trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.

In China, oil consumption is now back to pre-pandemic levels, according to official data. It’s still down in countries like Italy and Spain, which were badly affected by the coronavirus, but rapidly recovering in others, including India, Japan, France and Germany.

Global demand fell as much as 30 per cent in late March and early April, when governments locked down entire countries. The scale of the rebound is still hotly debated, but most say consumption is now 10 per cent to 15 per cent below normal levels.

“Our short-term tracking of demand confirms a healthy recovery from the lows of April,” said Giovanni Serio, chief economist at Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader.

Vitol estimates that oil demand is rising by about 1.4 million barrels a day every week in June — that’s roughly equal to adding the whole consumption of the U.K. to the market, weekly.

Second Wave

The market isn’t out of the woods yet. In many countries, the first wave of the pandemic is still accelerating, while China had to take drastic measures this week to avoid a second wave taking hold in Beijing.

The continuing influence of the virus on daily life is visible in the uneven nature of the oil recovery. Gasoline is leading the rebound as people choose to drive their cars and avoid public transport. For the first time since the pandemic, the fuel is more expensive for immediate delivery in the U.S. wholesale market than forward contracts, a sign of demand strength.

“We see a V-shape recovery for gasoline,” said Chris Midgley, head of analytics at S&P Global Platts and a former head of oil markets analysis at Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Yet, diesel, a fuel more closely linked to the business cycle because it powers industries and freight movements, is lagging as the world’s economy tips into recession. Demand for jet fuel remains almost as depressed as it was during the peak of the coronavirus crisis.

Historic Cuts

Oil consumption doesn’t have to come back in full as long as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the rest of the OPEC+ alliance are cutting production sharply. The group has removed about a 10th of supply from the market, while U.S. and Canadian output has also fallen sharply.

The scarcity created by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies has pushed prices to unusually high levels even in Europe, a continent only tentatively emerging from lockdown.

Urals, Russia’s flagship export blend, was selling at a US$4.60-a-barrel discount to Brent in northwest Europe in late March. Now, refiners are buying the grade at a US$1.55 premium, the highest in almost 10 years. Saudi Arabia’s Arab Light crude will sell at a premium of 30 cents a barrel in the region in July, up from a discount of US$10.25 in April.

Balanced Market

The steep OPEC+ cuts mean that even a weakened global economy is probably consuming roughly as much crude as it’s producing right now. That’s a massive turnround from the March-to-May period, when traders put about a billion barrels of unwanted oil into tanks, underground caverns and even ocean-going tankers.

If OPEC+ manages to make every country stick to its output quotas and demand keeps rising, the world could soon start consuming more oil than it produces.

“There have been encouraging signs of recovery in demand and a rebalancing of global oil markets,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a gathering of some OPEC+ ministers last week. “The world economy has embarked on the long journey of easing the lockdowns, but there will inevitably be setbacks and reversals.”

The shrinking of bloated stockpiles can often be a catalyst for rising prices, but it could be a slow process. Additional demand could just as easily be met by just-in-time supplies — a combination of OPEC+ tapering off its output cuts and U.S. shale output recovering.

Not many traders expect to see US$50 a barrel this year. Still, even fewer of them believe that a return to the ultra-low prices of April, when Brent fell to US$15.98 a barrel, is likely.

“The oil market is now, for the first time in several months, finding its stability,” Luckock of Trafigura said in an interview. “At $40 a barrel, we can trade a few dollars higher and a few lower. But for the first time in a few months, you can see a range.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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