Philippe J. Fournier: If only men voted, the Liberal and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie. Only women: the Liberals win a crushing 226 seats.
Although it is not necessarily a new phenomenon in this country, polling numbers of late have revealed a stark divide in voting intentions between male and female Canadians. While I was aware of that fact from past polls, the latest federal figures from EKOS Research Associates published earlier last week caught me a little off guard: Among Canadian men, EKOS currently measures a virtual tie in voting intentions with the Conservatives at 37 per cent and Liberals at 35 per cent nationally. However, among women, Liberal support is double that the CPC, with 47 per cent for the Liberals and only 23 per cent for the Conservatives.
Here are the numbers from EKOS:
While regional or generational differences across the country are often scrutinized in understanding the political landscape in Canada—and justifiably so—I thought I would take a closer look at the gender divide in the current numbers.
I confess I had not paid much attention to the gender voting intentions of late, so I went back and checked other recent federal polls. In Léger’s latest federal survey (June 19-21, 2020), we also observe a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives among men (35 and 34 per cent, respectively), but a crushing 20-point Liberal lead among women:
Other polling firms have measured similar results: Nanos Research (June 19, 2020) also measures a virtual tie among men, and a 20-point lead for the Liberals among women. In Abacus Data latest federal poll (June 12-21, 2020), the Liberals lead by six points among men and by 15 points among women.
Regular readers of this column may remember a few of my past politics-fiction exercises such as The Green Democrats and The 2019 federal election with Ranked Ballots. Well, using the last month of federal polling, I performed yet another politics-fiction experiment: What would a federal election look like if voting intentions aligned with the women vote? With the men vote? In our multi-party First-Past-The-Post system, parties that amass votes in the high-30s or low-40s are usually overwhelmingly rewarded in terms of seats, so I was curious to see the results.
Let’s see take a closer look.
What if only Canadian men voted
Using these recent polls and the regional trends of the past federal elections, what if we aligned current voting intentions among Canadian men to the whole country?
Here are the weighted averages for the male vote calculated by the 338Canada model:
[On these graphs, the numbers represent the averages and the coloured bars, the 95 per cent confidence intervals.]
The Liberals and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie with averages of 36 and 35 per cent respectively. The NDP would come a distant third with 14 per cent.
With these hypothetical numbers, the Liberals would be favoured to win a plurality of seats with an average of 159 seats, a deputation similar to the one they gained in October 2019 (157 seats). The Conservatives would be projected modestly higher than their 2019 total with an average of 131 seats. However, as you can see on the graph below, the confidence intervals of both parties overlap significantly, so the actual outcome of an election with such numbers would be highly uncertain:
In this simulation, the CPC gains seat-wise compared to the 2019 election would mostly come at the expense of the NDP, which drops at an average of 18 seats.
Again, these seat totals are not all that surprising considering how similar how they are to the last federal election results. Let us now take a look at the women vote.
What if only Canadian women voted
As stated above, recent polling has shown the federal Liberals well ahead of their rivals in voting intentions among Canadian women. In the past months, we have seen this lead significantly increase over the Conservatives.
Here are the weighted averages calculated by the model:
The Liberals dominate the field with an average of 43 per cent, a 19-point lead over the Conservatives which stand at 24 per cent. The NDP and Greens also fare modestly better with women in the vote projection with 17 and 8 per cent respectively.
How would these voting intentions translate into seats? See below:
Projecting the women vote into seats, the Liberals would win on average a crushing 226 seats—including more than 100 seats in Ontario alone and a complete sweep of the Atlantic Provinces. In fact, the Liberals could even reach the majority threshold of 170 seats before reaching the Manitoba-Ontario border. As for the Conservatives, they would be reduced to just over 60 seats, with half of those from Alberta.
Once again we must insist: This is purely a politics-fiction exercise and these numbers are bound to change over time. Nevertheless, such thought-experiments (Gedankenexperiment) can serve as useful exercises of imagination to better understand the hows and the what-ifs.
Reading from a table that there is a gender gap of roughly 20 points between the main two parties in Canada may not resonate at first, until one compares the stark contrast between the seat projections translated from these numbers.
Yet, it is worth stressing that we have seen similar trends, albeit of lesser amplitude, in voting intentions in Canada: In the 2018 Ontario election, men supported Doug Ford’s PC in much greater numbers than women; The same could be said about the 2018 Quebec election, when the right-of-centre CAQ had higher support from men than women. Ditto Jason Kenney’s UCP in the 2019 Alberta election. South of the border, polls clearly show Democratic candidate Joe Biden leading by comfortable margins among American women, whereas American men are far more divided between Biden and President Trump.
Nonetheless, this represents a major challenge for the Conservatives and the next CPC leader whoever he or she may be. We have discussed at length that polling shows how the Conservatives need to reach out to a younger, more urban (and suburban) demographics in order to win future elections in Canada. But we cannot stress this enough: Trailing the Liberals by almost 20 points among Canadian women also dramatically narrows the path to victory for the CPC.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
