The biggest divide in Canadian politics | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Politics

The biggest divide in Canadian politics

Published

 on

Philippe J. Fournier: If only men voted, the Liberal and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie. Only women: the Liberals win a crushing 226 seats.

Although it is not necessarily a new phenomenon in this country, polling numbers of late have revealed a stark divide in voting intentions between male and female Canadians. While I was aware of that fact from past polls, the latest federal figures from EKOS Research Associates published earlier last week caught me a little off guard: Among Canadian men, EKOS currently measures a virtual tie in voting intentions with the Conservatives at 37 per cent and Liberals at 35 per cent nationally. However, among women, Liberal support is double that the CPC, with 47 per cent for the Liberals and only 23 per cent for the Conservatives.

Here are the numbers from EKOS: 

While regional or generational differences across the country are often scrutinized in understanding the political landscape in Canada—and justifiably so—I thought I would take a closer look at the gender divide in the current numbers.

I confess I had not paid much attention to the gender voting intentions of late, so I went back and checked other recent federal polls. In Léger’s latest federal survey (June 19-21, 2020), we also observe a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives among men (35 and 34 per cent, respectively), but a crushing 20-point Liberal lead among women:

Other polling firms have measured similar results: Nanos Research (June 19, 2020) also measures a virtual tie among men, and a 20-point lead for the Liberals among women. In Abacus Data latest federal poll (June 12-21, 2020), the Liberals lead by six points among men and by 15 points among women.

Regular readers of this column may remember a few of my past politics-fiction exercises such as The Green Democrats and The 2019 federal election with Ranked Ballots. Well, using the last month of federal polling, I performed yet another politics-fiction experiment: What would a federal election look like if voting intentions aligned with the women vote? With the men vote? In our multi-party First-Past-The-Post system, parties that amass votes in the high-30s or low-40s are usually overwhelmingly rewarded in terms of seats, so I was curious to see the results.

Let’s see take a closer look.

What if only Canadian men voted

Using these recent polls and the regional trends of the past federal elections, what if we aligned current voting intentions among Canadian men to the whole country?

Here are the weighted averages for the male vote calculated by the 338Canada model:


[On these graphs, the numbers represent the averages and the coloured bars, the 95 per cent confidence intervals.]

The Liberals and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie with averages of 36 and 35 per cent respectively. The NDP would come a distant third with 14 per cent.

With these hypothetical numbers, the Liberals would be favoured to win a plurality of seats with an average of 159 seats, a deputation similar to the one they gained in October 2019 (157 seats). The Conservatives would be projected modestly higher than their 2019 total with an average of 131 seats. However, as you can see on the graph below, the confidence intervals of both parties overlap significantly, so the actual outcome of an election with such numbers would be highly uncertain:



In this simulation, the CPC gains seat-wise compared to the 2019 election would mostly come at the expense of the NDP, which drops at an average of 18 seats.

Again, these seat totals are not all that surprising considering how similar how they are to the last federal election results. Let us now take a look at the women vote.

What if only Canadian women voted

As stated above, recent polling has shown the federal Liberals well ahead of their rivals in voting intentions among Canadian women. In the past months, we have seen this lead significantly increase over the Conservatives.

Here are the weighted averages calculated by the model:



The Liberals dominate the field with an average of 43 per cent, a 19-point lead over the Conservatives which stand at 24 per cent. The NDP and Greens also fare modestly better with women in the vote projection with 17 and 8 per cent respectively.

How would these voting intentions translate into seats? See below:


Projecting the women vote into seats, the Liberals would win on average a crushing 226 seats—including more than 100 seats in Ontario alone and a complete sweep of the Atlantic Provinces. In fact, the Liberals could even reach the majority threshold of 170 seats before reaching the Manitoba-Ontario border. As for the Conservatives, they would be reduced to just over 60 seats, with half of those from Alberta.

Once again we must insist: This is purely a politics-fiction exercise and these numbers are bound to change over time. Nevertheless, such thought-experiments (Gedankenexperiment) can serve as useful exercises of imagination to better understand the hows and the what-ifs.

Reading from a table that there is a gender gap of roughly 20 points between the main two parties in Canada may not resonate at first, until one compares the stark contrast between the seat projections translated from these numbers.

Yet, it is worth stressing that we have seen similar trends, albeit of lesser amplitude, in voting intentions in Canada: In the 2018 Ontario election, men supported Doug Ford’s PC in much greater numbers than women; The same could be said about the 2018 Quebec election, when the right-of-centre CAQ had higher support from men than women. Ditto Jason Kenney’s UCP in the 2019 Alberta election. South of the border, polls clearly show Democratic candidate Joe Biden leading by comfortable margins among American women, whereas American men are far more divided between Biden and President Trump.

Nonetheless, this represents a major challenge for the Conservatives and the next CPC leader whoever he or she may be. We have discussed at length that polling shows how the Conservatives need to reach out to a younger, more urban (and suburban) demographics in order to win future elections in Canada. But we cannot stress this enough: Trailing the Liberals by almost 20 points among Canadian women also dramatically narrows the path to victory for the CPC.

 

Source: – Maclean’s

Source link

Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

 on

 

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version